cbmclean

I'm not sure they could be called tremendous. The airmass was always horrible. But both models "saw" that if everything went exactly right in the best possible way, a nice storm could result.

Wouldn't it be ironic if we had two cold, dry -EPO periods sandwiched around the January Pack Puke warm/moist period. Good thing for me I also enjoy cold dry weather.

Checking in the long range, at 10 MB, both the GEFS and the GEPS have the SPV somewhat stretched and off to the side with significant warmth over Siberia. Hopefully is a sign that it is not well coupled to the TPV.

Still don't like the warm anomalies from coast to coast in Canada. They should be cooling down first right? It's certainly better than current conditions though.

Just saw a tweet from Eric Webber about that. Hopefully it leads to improvements.

Ok. So as of today the pattern could improve ~Jan 20th, with probably at least a week to recover temperatures after that. So by ~ Jan 27th there could be hope. All we can do is take it 1 day at a time.

@WxWatcher007 heading south to take on part-time contract work to handle the dangerous overload of weenies heading to the cliffs. It's a public service.

Honest question. Is that just the lag from the Pac Puke or is something else amiss? The pac jet doesn;t look horrible at that time.

First step of getting out of a hole is: stop digging. I'll be happy if the mild pacific air actually cuts off and then I'll worry about the recovery time.

The SPV looking somewhat stretched in the long range on the 18z GEFS. Doesn't necessarily imply anything good in the troposphere but I like seeing it better than a big blue consolidated bowling ball. Note the warm anomaly growing in Siberia.

Not disputing your general point, but how many other perfect attack rainstorms have there been this winter? I thought this was the first. Doesn't seem like there has really been that many strong storms period other the pre-Christmas monster.

At 240 hrs

Talking the NPJ, looks somewhat less strong in the long range on the GFS. Is that potentially a good thing? Here are pictures from the 12Z GEFS 0 hrs

So... Was Viceroy right all along?

Well now I want to understand the Pacific jet.

Hoping their wrong?

Yes I can see the jetstream at 250 MB, but I am trying to understand what features (at the surface or at 500 MB) make it strong or weak and make it point this way or that way.

I have been hanging around here for years and have learned a lot. But for the life of me I cannot look at a height field and visually tell what the temperatures anomalies are going to look like. My understanding is that the current NA torch is due to a strong flow of Pacific air. In NH plot below is there a feature or features which I could look at at and instantly say: Paciifc Fire hose? If anyone wants to pull out the John Madden telestrator and diagram a few things that would be even better.

He's up on Connecticut, reaping NE weenies.

I've been complaining about it being impossible for it to go into phase 1 . It'll be ironic it if does it in the middle of a torch. At least it's not making it worse.

So where are we at with the PAC Jet? Is it too extended or too retracted right now.

Sorry, I thought this was sort of a panic space.

But exponential economic (and its intertwined scientific growth) is the ONLY reason you and I are currently sitting in heated houses typing on computers right this second. In fact you and I might not be alive at all right now otherwise because the carrying capacity of the planet would be much less. I despise warm winters to the very core of my being. I am not a shill for big coal or even remotely a climate denier. AGW could possibly lead to enormous human suffering down the road. But the fact is that to this point the ledger is heavily weighted to the positive in terms of cost/benefit, at least in MATERIAL terms. (It's much murkier when you consider mental, spiritual and aesthetic factors). Renewables are definitely the way of the future BUT they are not easy as you can see in Europe right now. It is quite fortunate for them tat their winter has been so mild given the currewnt situation. It will take decades of hard work to realize, and TBH we have to realize that it might not be possible without a drastic reduction in living standards. I guess my overall point is: don't consider yourself an innocent who has been sinned against by stupid greedy ancestors. If that isn't really your attitude I apologize for the assumption but I hear that attitude a lot and it irks me.

Omicron did the exact same thing last year. We're just going to have to live with it going forward. Take the appropriate precautions for yourself but also have some thought for the immunocompromised among us. But life must go on.