cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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Man I hate seeing rain in Quebec in mid/late December.
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Actually what I think I have learned is that THE critical factor is always whichever one sucks for us at a given time.
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Yeah but based on PSU's findings it appears that the NAO may be more important in the average west-based Nino because it helps modulate the alwaye Nino tendency to inject Pacific air into NA. I agree that in Nina the PAC is an absolute. If it is flooding us with Pac Puke then forget the NAO. If we have a nice EPO or PNA ridge, then perhaps the NAO is of less consequence.
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Geological epoch.
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The @psuhoffman lending library has many volumes you could check out on this topic, but in your heart of hearts, you know the answer to this question already
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I thought El Nino vs La Nina was modulated by the PDO as opposed to the AMO.
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I saw what you did.
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Be sure to include lots of flame emojis.
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Tell your boss that the NAO has degraded on the long range guidance and as a result you need to take a few extra weeks off to watch the models.
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He still lives and no one can tell me any different!! In other news, a link for the curious to the CPS MJO weekly write-up https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Summary: there is a disagreement between the dynamical models which predict the wave dies (potentially due to destructive interference from a CCKW in the Indian Ocean), and the "RMM forecast" which favor continuation of the wave into 7 and beyond. Not sure what entity/model is the "RMM forecast" other than the models, but I sure hope they are right. I've heard many people that the models tend to kill waves too quickly so maybe...
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Honest question, does it "count" if it tunnels through the COD to get to phase 8? Not used to seeing that.
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If the opinion of a random SE weenie (who has latched on to this forum like a tick), makes any difference to you, I appreciate your unbiased and intellectually impartial analysis. Please keep it coming.
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I just ignored my first ever person on here. I feel dirty.
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I think I may have read something about how stout +EAMT events can help destabilize the PV. Anyone else ever hear of that?
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The problem is that individual isn't doing it just out of lack of knowledge. He is a known troll who has haunted the tropical forum for several years now.
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Is it just me or do perfect track storms become more common lately when the CONUS is flooded with Pac Puke? I know I know; the MA used to be able overcome less than ideal Pacifics, but not any more.
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A link to Dr. Simon Lee's page documenting his weather "regimes". https://simonleewx.com/north-american-weather-regimes/ Obviously we are about to embark on a very robust "Pacific Trough" regime. There is some hint of a potential transition to a "Greenland High" regime starting between Christmas and New Years, but it is by no means a certainty.
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Must be nice. The I-95 corridor has been absolutely shafted. Virtually nothing here.
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That spin move Wallace pulled out was impressive. He definitely hit the circle button on his controller.
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@CAPE @WxUSAF @psuhoffman Do you guys share in today's general despair? Looking at the big three ensembles, not sure that I see anything worse so much as just a failure to see anything better. Perhaps I am just impatient.
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The mood has turned ugly today.
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Not necessarily. It takes mental discipline and an analytical mind. Neither is in over abundance.
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Couple a' things: 1. Everyone on here has been burned by can-kickage, especially over the last 7 years, Many of us vividly remember the 2019 El Nada vividly. So at the first hint of CK, we get the sweats. It's like the smell of smoke to a herd of spooked horses. 2. You have a history of accuracy in predictions. Lately many(most?) of the predictions have been of doom, simply because we have been a prolonged stretch of total suck. When you note even a potential for concern, the wise among us take note. Case in point: the famous December 30th 2020 post where you described that, based on ALL historical evidence: we were in for fail. And fail we did. So, take it as a compliment.
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I haven't seen any of the 500 HP verification scores lately. There was a time not too long ago when the GFS had dropped to third behind the CMC. Is that no longer true?
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@psuhoffman mentioned that as "Phase 2" of the master plan. Meanwhile GEPS has some hints of ridging in the EPO PNA domain but very subtle. I hate waiting on pattern changes. ETA: Correction, I should have said PNA domain, not EPO. Alaska still troughy.
