cbmclean

Alright. Seems like there is really only one thing to talk about in this thread at the moment: when/if the big AK vortex breaks down/moves. Some of the more level-headed folks have voiced cautious optimism that it may not be excessively long. In between waring with the NE Snow weenies Eric Webber mentioned that he is optimistic because intense waves such as that retrograde due to the "beta effect" whatever that is. So perhaps we have a shot.

I know that many gave speculated about next year being a Nino. Has anyone come across any reason to believe it would be a Modoki?

Eh, 2018-19 was a Nino though. Wouldn't have known from the mid latitude response though. MJO raged into the usual phases.

Forgot the picture.

Actually its probably happened multiple years lately.

It was 2018-19. I remember a BobChill post from early January about how sickening it was to see that track lead to a rain storm.

No help can be expected from the MJO. Per the latest CPC briefing the most likely prognosis is convection will ramp up in the Maritime Continent that we all know and love so well. I'd love to see a time series of the MJO for the last 5 winters. Probably hasn't spent more than two weeks in phases 1-2 in that entire span.

Well said.

What else is there to do? We wait and watch.

Was there some sort of kerfluffle with Eric Webber on Twitter?

What do you mean? It snows in the NC sandhills while raining in Caribou Maine all the time.

Just for the sake of discussion, since there isn't much else to discuss right now are there any reasonable breaks that we might conceivably get to improve the decent long-wave patter assuming it does reload. I mean other than reversing decades of excess heat dump into the oceans.

I much prefer this since I am one of those weenies who hates winter warmth. But to my novice eye I see no 50/50 and the PNA ridge too far west. So as far as frozen, we are likely in the same fail boat. Am I catching on?

That is pure magic. Snow breaking out over Lake Pontchartrain while it rains north of the Canadian border with Vermont.

Since a few years ago apparently. And it seems likely to remain that way going forward does it not? So now we either hunt perfection, or else leave the hobby.

I think we know the answer to that question...

Then we lose.

Crazy how much impact a fresh snow pack makes. RDU colder than Boston. Of course if the snow pack isn't there then you don't get anywhere near this.

I didn't know that I was authorized to do that. I thought only certain people could.

I've never trusted the Germans since they bombed Pearl Harbor.

OK, I'll bite. Anyone willing to share their personal top 5 list for MA snow experiences, in ranked order, along with a brief description of why? I suspect the usual list of candidates will be in some order, PD1/2, Jan 1996, Jan 2016, Dec 2009 etc. For those who are really bored (or just love talking about it) a detailed explanation of your ranking criteria would be welcome. Factors that I would personally consider are if I was doing it are 1. Amount of snow 2. Temps during event 3. How long did the snow stick around/temps after the event 4. How well was the event modelled (or not if you like surprises) 5. Bonus factors (high winds, high rates, thundersnow, number of Ji meltdowns etc).

It could use a 50/50 low

Any signs of the "quit weather learn to macramé" signal noted yesterday with anomalous warmth even with a trough east/ridge west combo as mentioned by PSU? I did note the kind of positive-ish EPO.