cbmclean

Not very familiar with the TNH teleconnection. Reading up on it a bit at the CPC site. From their write-up its not really clear which phase is better for the eastern CONUS. From https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml The positive phase of the TNH pattern is associated with below-average surface temperatures throughout the western and central United States, and across central and eastern Canada. It is also associated with above-average precipitation across the central and eastern subtropical North Pacific, and below-average precipitation in the western United States and across Cuba, the Bahama Islands, and much of the central North Atlantic Ocean. The negative phase of the TNH pattern is often observed during December and January when Pacific warm (ENSO) episode conditions are present (Barnston et al. 1991). One recent example of this is the 1994/95 winter season, when mature Pacific warm episode conditions and a strong negative phase of the TNH pattern were present. During this period, the mean Hudson Bay trough was much weaker than normal and shifted northeastward toward the Labrador Sea. Additionally, the Pacific jet stream was much stronger than normal and shifted southward to central California, well south of its climatological mean position in the Pacific Northwest. This flow pattern brought well above-normal temperatures to eastern North America and above-normal rainfall to the southwestern United States.

Thanks. Seems like puke in is faster than puke out.

Can't check ensembles. Anyone know if anymore hints of AK vortex retrograding?

Big thunder in Wilson. 0.48" so far.

Hopefully the EPO can help replenish the cold air scoured out by the Pac Puke.

Consult @Ralph Wiggum for info. He is the WAR Whisperer.

Alright. Seems like there is really only one thing to talk about in this thread at the moment: when/if the big AK vortex breaks down/moves. Some of the more level-headed folks have voiced cautious optimism that it may not be excessively long. In between waring with the NE Snow weenies Eric Webber mentioned that he is optimistic because intense waves such as that retrograde due to the "beta effect" whatever that is. So perhaps we have a shot.

I know that many gave speculated about next year being a Nino. Has anyone come across any reason to believe it would be a Modoki?

Eh, 2018-19 was a Nino though. Wouldn't have known from the mid latitude response though. MJO raged into the usual phases.

Forgot the picture.

Actually its probably happened multiple years lately.

It was 2018-19. I remember a BobChill post from early January about how sickening it was to see that track lead to a rain storm.

No help can be expected from the MJO. Per the latest CPC briefing the most likely prognosis is convection will ramp up in the Maritime Continent that we all know and love so well. I'd love to see a time series of the MJO for the last 5 winters. Probably hasn't spent more than two weeks in phases 1-2 in that entire span.

Well said.

What else is there to do? We wait and watch.

Was there some sort of kerfluffle with Eric Webber on Twitter?

What do you mean? It snows in the NC sandhills while raining in Caribou Maine all the time.

Just for the sake of discussion, since there isn't much else to discuss right now are there any reasonable breaks that we might conceivably get to improve the decent long-wave patter assuming it does reload. I mean other than reversing decades of excess heat dump into the oceans.

I much prefer this since I am one of those weenies who hates winter warmth. But to my novice eye I see no 50/50 and the PNA ridge too far west. So as far as frozen, we are likely in the same fail boat. Am I catching on?

That is pure magic. Snow breaking out over Lake Pontchartrain while it rains north of the Canadian border with Vermont.

Since a few years ago apparently. And it seems likely to remain that way going forward does it not? So now we either hunt perfection, or else leave the hobby.

I think we know the answer to that question...

Then we lose.

Crazy how much impact a fresh snow pack makes. RDU colder than Boston. Of course if the snow pack isn't there then you don't get anywhere near this.