cbmclean

Serious training going on in Harnett County right now. Be interesting to see what rain measurements they have down there.

Picked up a token 0.14" from a cell that blew up right as it passed by house. Only 0.38" so far this month. Things not too dry yet...

We're having a comically cold, wet Memorial Day weekend down here in NC. Apparently the Eastern trough that was missing all winter woke up and is trying to make up for lost time.

Ended up yesterday with 1.28" from two separate rounds of storms; one in the afternoon and one in the evening.

Didn't get as much as the Raleigh folks but managed a healthy 0.86". Enough to keep the annual spring drought at bay another week.

This is the song that will play when the incoming El Nino turns out to be super.

I'm not sure that there is really much to discuss at the moment. The clear leading hypothesis is that the gradually warming base state has hit a "tipping point" with a dynamic response that just happens to be associated with increased SER/WAR. The exact mechanism(s) of the coupling are unclear but could include overly warm waters in the Gulf/West Atlantic, the Pacific warm pool, the expanding Hadley cell, some combination of all three, or maybe something completely different. Deciphering it all could take years or maybe a decade or more as we observe the new responses through various ENSO/PDO states. Until then, all we can do is hope some mitigating natural trends weigh in our favor. Or else we could all chip in to purchase a ship that just sails around the midlatitudes spewing sulfur particulates into the air.

Those are for Members Only.

Mangled flakes in Wilson.

There are still tales told of March 1960, in hushed tones around the fireside.

All I need to know is: is @psuhoffman still in? And by the way as a SE weenie, I am living vicariously through you guys. Bring this SSW March Miracle to fruition. I will be enjoying my cold rain, as a sacrificial lamb.

Sun angle is lower (more oblique) the further north you go. Not a huge difference between you guys and central NY, but not zero difference either.

Man I dislike that reversal of the catch call. The call on the field is supposed to stand unless there is indisputable evidence to overturn. That was not indisputable.

2019 was a moderate Nino wasn't it? I remember there being debate about whether it was a modoki or not. Either way, results were the same: SER and WAR ruled the roost.

December is the front, right? And it's the only month that was not a wall-to-wall torch. Ergo the winter was front loaded. Nobody ever said the load would be good.

When I started hanging around here years ago, I'm not sure I would have ever believed that the day would come when and Ji would be the optimist on this board. Well here we are.

Yes it did. December was slightly below normal. That is equivalent to frigid when you adjust for inflation. And it actually had a legit cold week-ish. Sure it was marred by the cutter. This winter was legitimately front loaded. Just the front load was only good in comparison to the rest of winter.

Hey, would you please stop wrecking the thermals with your pessimism? Cold air can sense negativity.

What leads you to believe this?

Looking at that CWG post I'm struck that if this year was in isolation, it would be frustrating but not overly alarming. In good company with 1932 and 1950 and 1890, and so forth. Any year can be a stinker. But the pattern is obvious. All we can do is hope that there is some natural suckage that is adding on top of the other suckage that we shall not discuss. And maybe we can have at least somewhat better times in the near future.

Man, 1932 must have been a dog. Also interesting to note that 2016 is on that list. Sometimes even in the midst of warmth...

"becoming"? You're book just hit the third edition. Stormtracker's clip just got nominated for an Oscar for best short feature

Visiting this site I've learned a good bit about teleconnections but I have almost no knowledge of storm dynamics. I gather from your posts that with the track depicted, with the high position/strength as depicted it "should" snow. It is also my understanding that the precipitation starts as snow but melts on the way down. So putting those together I conclude that somewhere in the column the snow is encountering layers where the air is warmer than it "should" be given the track and high location/strength. Where does that anomalous layer start and what is the source of the anomaly? And yeah I know what the ultimate source of the anomaly is. I'm just talking the proximate cause. An example would be something like (I'm just making this up as an example) 1. "The air at 700 mb and below is being sourced from the NNE and the water there is +2 C warmer than the mean."

Getting chippy in here.

Have we attempted to communicate with the SER? Maybe it is a sentient being liek the crystalline entity on Star Trek TNG.