cbmclean

I must admit I miss your old name. Zugzwang captures so perfectly the essence of being a snow weenie south of the Mason-Dixon line: doesn't matter which direction the storm moves, it's a fail.

Well if, as some speculate the Control is upgraded in resolution then you wouldn't loose much if anything in the short term and in theory you could get better long-range performance. I know you're not particularly interested in that but maybe that is their plan. I also wonder if their research scientists believe that there isn't much point in trying to increase the op resolution any further with current measurement technologies. One might suspect that with chaos and whatnot, at a certain point increasing spatial resolution just leads to higher resolution noise. They might think they'll get more bang for their buck (euro) by improving the ensembles algorithms. NWP is a fascinating subject to me I wish there was more literature on it that was accessible to an educated lay person.

Still haven't figured out your old handle. Looking for a good PI to hire in the Bethesda area.

Wow, seems like that would be a big step backwards in resolution for short-term (1 - 5 days) forecasting.

I don't have anything personal against her. I recognize that she is a talented individual and an excellent performer. I just really, really hate when the interconnected nexus that is the modern media-industrial complex drives something or someone into the ground.

Not a Raven's fan but was rooting for them big time to keep Taylor Swift out of the Super Bowl. Turned on the TV to check the score (doing work on the treehouse) and what was the first sight to greet my eyes: Taylor Swift hugging Travis Kelce...

Mozart schmozart. Everyone knows that Salieri was the real genius!

What showed 30 inches? If you are referring to the map posted by @olafminesaw, it was showing the probability of getting >1" is about 30% for RDU. Which is still better than baseline.

That event introduced me to the term "confluence".

Man, somebody just stole the miter saw I stupidly left on my front porch while I took the kids to the park. I am very angry with myself for leaving it out there but I honestly feel almost violated that a thief was on my porch. The psychology of someone who believes they are entitled to have anything they can take is honestly alien to me.

"Quasi-omega block"? What is quasi about it?

PSU fringed

Wait, who were you?

Can;t watch this myself at work, but this may be informative: https://m.facebook.com/NOAAClimateGov/videos/rossby-waves-and-wave-breaking/1527253234461813/

The concept of wave breaking is common across many types of wave phenomenon. here is the wiki article about in a general sense for gravity waves. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_wave_breaking Rossby waves (our kind of waves in the 500 HP pattern) apparently can also "break", but like you I am not sure what that looks like on a 500 HP plot.

I have to push back on this thought a little. It is my hypothesis based on observations and my own experiences that some people are just intrinsically predisposed to positivity or negativity to varying degrees. I am on the negative side. I have been ever since I was little. I didn't make a decision to be that way. I can't just make it go away by choosing it. I can fight it, and I do, but it is a lifelong struggle. Sometimes I am successful. Often I am not. I suspect many others are the same way. I think it's fair to hope that people who have an easier time being positive have some awareness and consideration for those for whom it is not so easy. At the same time, people who KNOW they are negative need to try and avoid bringing others down with it, because that is not fair either.

It will be interesting to see how much of a recovery we get, if any, once the PDO flips back. But even then I'm not sure how much impact the PDO has on the prevalence of Pac Puke as opposed to -PNA.

The hypothesis is that the hadley cell expansion is an effect of...you know.

Assuming the "Hadley cell jet steroid" hypothesis is correct (seems very plausible but years of research would be needed and not sure any PHD candidates are working on it), getting mad at the Hadley cell for Pac Puke is like force-feeding your kid caffeine and then getting mad when they act wild.

Never mind.

I actually can't tell, are you being overdramatic a la Ji,?

Wait a minute...has your level of knowledge evolved to a point where you can shut off snow when you are out of the area?

Man gotta love that quadrifecta (tetrafecta?) of -PNA, +NAO, +AO, +EPO around 1/25. Other than that teleconnections are great!

As usual, Wikipedia has a detailed write-up, perhaps too detailed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

I wonder in today's base state would such a burger even work anymore?