cbmclean
-
Posts
2,862 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by cbmclean
-
January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?
cbmclean replied to psuhoffman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Don't think you've won. He'll be Bach. -
January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?
cbmclean replied to psuhoffman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Can't post pics at work, but look at 00z GEPS at 318 hrs. Looks like decent 500 MB presentation But temp anomalies are disappointing. -
Two subs enter, one sub leaves.
-
Was just going to post, that, but you saved me the trouble.
-
I personally think P32 looks extra realistic.
-
That was probably the same January 2-3 even I mentioned that did well at RDU. I had almost completely forgotten about that storm and my memories of 2001 -2002 were negative based on the overall warmth.
-
As you can see from my profile I live in Wilson which is just 45 minutes or so west of Greeneville. Our snow climatology could best be described as: "We see flakes 2 out of 3 years, and that ain't bad!". Oddly enough I haven't been fully shut-out (no flakes at all) since I have been here. Closet I came was in 2011-12 but I did see a few sleet pellets' that year. I'm afraid this year might be the year.
-
Well actually you are correct in that sense. RDU got a big snow on Jan 2 - 3. But that was all she wrote that winter. It was super warm otherwise. Here is a map from Eric Webber's historical website.
-
Where did you live?
-
Actually 2002 - 2003 was really "good" by NC standards, at least where I was in the Triad. Several minor events and persistent cold. One of my favorites. 2001 - 2002 was awful on the other hand.
-
Well, @psuhoffman, at least you have the Eagles this year. Seems like they are finally over that nasty Super Bowl hangover.
-
I'm not sure they could be called tremendous. The airmass was always horrible. But both models "saw" that if everything went exactly right in the best possible way, a nice storm could result.
-
Wouldn't it be ironic if we had two cold, dry -EPO periods sandwiched around the January Pack Puke warm/moist period. Good thing for me I also enjoy cold dry weather.
-
-
Checking in the long range, at 10 MB, both the GEFS and the GEPS have the SPV somewhat stretched and off to the side with significant warmth over Siberia. Hopefully is a sign that it is not well coupled to the TPV.
-
Still don't like the warm anomalies from coast to coast in Canada. They should be cooling down first right? It's certainly better than current conditions though.
-
Just saw a tweet from Eric Webber about that. Hopefully it leads to improvements.
-
Ok. So as of today the pattern could improve ~Jan 20th, with probably at least a week to recover temperatures after that. So by ~ Jan 27th there could be hope. All we can do is take it 1 day at a time.
-
@WxWatcher007 heading south to take on part-time contract work to handle the dangerous overload of weenies heading to the cliffs. It's a public service.
-
Honest question. Is that just the lag from the Pac Puke or is something else amiss? The pac jet doesn;t look horrible at that time.
-
First step of getting out of a hole is: stop digging. I'll be happy if the mild pacific air actually cuts off and then I'll worry about the recovery time.
-
The SPV looking somewhat stretched in the long range on the 18z GEFS. Doesn't necessarily imply anything good in the troposphere but I like seeing it better than a big blue consolidated bowling ball. Note the warm anomaly growing in Siberia.
-
Not disputing your general point, but how many other perfect attack rainstorms have there been this winter? I thought this was the first. Doesn't seem like there has really been that many strong storms period other the pre-Christmas monster.
-
At 240 hrs
-
Talking the NPJ, looks somewhat less strong in the long range on the GFS. Is that potentially a good thing? Here are pictures from the 12Z GEFS 0 hrs
