cbmclean

@psuhoffman So we here (at least most of us) know what "it" is that is the ultimate villain behind the scenes. What has worked for you guys before just isn't working now and you are heading towards my climatology (let's not talk about where mine is headed ). The only meaningful question that I think we can consider here is: to what extent, if any, is the current absolute record-setting crap stretch also due to a natural down cycle that happens to be compound the background warming? Put another way, what reasons if any, do you feel we have for optimism that we see less-bad times in the near future? I can only think of one major argument which is what appears to be the relative suddenness of the collapse into the complete fail stretch pattern. We went from "loosing around the margins" to the pit of despair in like a 5 year span, which could be interpreted to fit the pattern of natural variation instead of the gradual decline we were used to. However, the counterpoint to that that Climate Cassandras for years now have been warning about sudden non-linear tipping points. Maybe we just passed one? Maybe the 2016 mega Nino was the harbinger of the new regime? If you have any other possibilities, I'm interested to hear them. If not, then I'd like to face our future with dignity, shitting the blinds as I go.

Your weather memory is better than mine but for 2019 I have a distinct memory of the MJO going ape in the warm phases. That enhanced MC convection drives a SE ridge right? Now I'm not trying to make an "excuse" because the strengthened Pacific warm pool is one of the mechanisms that has been mentioned for how we have been losing the margins.

Is that a -EPO?

Had to look up jawn.

Who the neck is Ava?

Long range GEFS and GEPS have the NPJ rather muted. In fact it retracts too far on the GFS, which is consistent with the general east coat ridging as depicted on that model's ensemble mean. Also the SPV continues to look as if it will be somewhat abused in the long-term.

Dang that's stout even for them. -80.86 F

You're starting down that path again. This is a perfectly valid topic of discussion but lets do it in the appropriate thread as has been requested.

Don't you know they control the models to periodically show false positive outputs? The positive vibes are just the weather-industrial complex stringing us along only to better crush our hopes and enjoy the sweet taste of weenie tears.

Can someone explain the avocado? I missed that day in class.

Tropical storms definitely do. Not sure about ET.

They can go either way...there is no rule. If dec and Jan were always cold...we would be cheering for a Nina every year Well even when cold the tendency for a trough west/ridge east makes Ninas especially prone to cold dry/warm wet syndrome.

December was cold, at least relatively.

Is it normal to have that much variability at 384? That's like a random number generator; every possible permutation of temperature anomaly. We all know p28 will verify

That was a overatted weak nino right? Well, we all had high hopes, so I guess in that sense it was over-rated. That was the year I learned to hate the MJO.

2019 was a grave disappointment.

Certainly, my point was if it isn't an oscillation we have no reason to expect it to "change states" at some future point.

Was curious about how the PDO might interact with the AMO, so reading about the AMO on Wikipedia yesterday. Apparently there is no consensus that it even exists. Some think it's just noise.

I have actually been hearing internet forums are dying all over. Note sure why. Maybe we should set up a group Twitter feed.

Canadian cold bias.

SPV doing some interesting contortions on the GFS suite in the long range. No signs of collapse yet to my eyes.

As long as the sacrifice does not cause additional CO2 emissions.

Northeast snow weenies were wish-casting and apparently got angry when he called them on it. But since then he has been going out of his way to revel in their misery. not a classy move in my opinion.

2020's will be negative. That's right, they will SUBTRACT snow from previous decades.

No patterns yield snow now We track arctic fronts.