cbmclean

After getting somewhat excited in December (like many of us) he has been relentlessly negative. In his defense it's been a relentlessly negative winter. So he's been objectively correct.

Chuck already showed it above but just to emphasize, do not look at the 18Z GFS if you value your sanity. Just don't. It goes all in on the "dig a trough to Baja" idea. 540 line over the northern Sea of California. Let us never speak of it again.

Was thinking same thing. Almost like all the modeling agencies got together to figure how to best prolong the weenie torture.

First obvious thought would be the SER is on steroids due to the bath water in the gulf, and just off the east coast. Seems like you had mentioned that yourself earlier as a possibility. Is there some reason why you doubt that hypothesis?

Not making this up, I dreamed of snow last night. Even in my dreams it was marginal mess.

We gotta stop letting it get our hopes up like this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra

I continue to be fascinated by the lack of a strong SE ridge in that composite. Goes to show that composites do not show the whole story. The SER has always been there when it mattered.

@psuhoffman So we here (at least most of us) know what "it" is that is the ultimate villain behind the scenes. What has worked for you guys before just isn't working now and you are heading towards my climatology (let's not talk about where mine is headed ). The only meaningful question that I think we can consider here is: to what extent, if any, is the current absolute record-setting crap stretch also due to a natural down cycle that happens to be compound the background warming? Put another way, what reasons if any, do you feel we have for optimism that we see less-bad times in the near future? I can only think of one major argument which is what appears to be the relative suddenness of the collapse into the complete fail stretch pattern. We went from "loosing around the margins" to the pit of despair in like a 5 year span, which could be interpreted to fit the pattern of natural variation instead of the gradual decline we were used to. However, the counterpoint to that that Climate Cassandras for years now have been warning about sudden non-linear tipping points. Maybe we just passed one? Maybe the 2016 mega Nino was the harbinger of the new regime? If you have any other possibilities, I'm interested to hear them. If not, then I'd like to face our future with dignity, shitting the blinds as I go.

Your weather memory is better than mine but for 2019 I have a distinct memory of the MJO going ape in the warm phases. That enhanced MC convection drives a SE ridge right? Now I'm not trying to make an "excuse" because the strengthened Pacific warm pool is one of the mechanisms that has been mentioned for how we have been losing the margins.

Is that a -EPO?

Had to look up jawn.

Who the neck is Ava?

Long range GEFS and GEPS have the NPJ rather muted. In fact it retracts too far on the GFS, which is consistent with the general east coat ridging as depicted on that model's ensemble mean. Also the SPV continues to look as if it will be somewhat abused in the long-term.

Dang that's stout even for them. -80.86 F

You're starting down that path again. This is a perfectly valid topic of discussion but lets do it in the appropriate thread as has been requested.

Don't you know they control the models to periodically show false positive outputs? The positive vibes are just the weather-industrial complex stringing us along only to better crush our hopes and enjoy the sweet taste of weenie tears.

Can someone explain the avocado? I missed that day in class.

Tropical storms definitely do. Not sure about ET.

They can go either way...there is no rule. If dec and Jan were always cold...we would be cheering for a Nina every year Well even when cold the tendency for a trough west/ridge east makes Ninas especially prone to cold dry/warm wet syndrome.

December was cold, at least relatively.

Is it normal to have that much variability at 384? That's like a random number generator; every possible permutation of temperature anomaly. We all know p28 will verify

That was a overatted weak nino right? Well, we all had high hopes, so I guess in that sense it was over-rated. That was the year I learned to hate the MJO.

2019 was a grave disappointment.

Certainly, my point was if it isn't an oscillation we have no reason to expect it to "change states" at some future point.