cbmclean

For balance, I dislike your positive post.

I don't mind oatmeal raisin as long as I am expecting it. But if I grab one thinking it is chocolate chip, it's a disappointment when I bite into it.

I'n your opinion, what is our most realistic path for success here? IF (a very big if), the MJO doesn't get stuck in the MC, then it seems like it might get back the good phases right in that late Jan early Feb Nino sweet spot. Seems like that is at least a decent hope?

I understand the significance of the 540 thickness line. But that is the 540 height line. Why is that highlighted?

I'm stuck with tropical tidbits on my phone. Who has the 411 on the 12z GEPs and EPS?

The pattern has changed, but the thermals must recover. I think it's fair to watch for that.

@brooklynwx99 mentioned that was linked to the unexpectedly strong +EAMT which caused thepac jet to overextend. That said it feels like we get more bad breaks than good breaks, and when the break bad, the break BAD.

Something similar happened in 2019. The El Nino never Ninoed.

But some discount Frozen merchandise and feed it into the snow blower piece by piece.

I don't even have the discipline to use an app...I'll be obsessively following, rooting against our nations NWP establishment.

Sure, just wanted others to be aware so the long range thread doesn't get overwhelmed. Many of the questions you are asking about the apparent tipping point are also of intense interest to me.

Bump.

Might be a good time to reduce the limit your app sets on your time here.

Just a public service announcement: there is a thread devoted to open ended discussion of "Will it ever snow again".

Did 2016 have a period in early January where a NPAC ridge threw a wrench in things? ETA: I meant ridge, not trough.

Are you still mostly unconcerned about the NPAC ridge and the associated SER reflection?

Is it time to panic?

I had always thought that was a Yogi Berra quote. But apparently it has an older and richer history. https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/

Just ignored my second poster. I was told it gets easier the second time.

The last one I recall was in Jan/Feb 2021 which I believe led directly to the great arctic outbreak in the Midwest in February (see @Jebman's epic post). Of course that did nothign for the east coast. SSWEs are enormously complex like most weather phenomena but I have a simple mental model which I think is useful. A SSWE is either going to couple with the troposphere or not. If it doesn't couple, then of course it is useless to us. If it does couple, SOME area of the NH is in for an arctic outbreak, but where exactly that occurs is highly variable as many other have pointed out. I haven't done any research but based on comments I have seen from the twitterati as well as my own common sense I strongly suspect that the location of any outbreak is not just uniformly random but is influenced by the already existing hemispheric pattern. If so then it makes perfect sense that the SSWE in say 2021 did nothing for us because as we all know our base state has been heavily tilted to SER pattern, essentially acting as a shield discouraging arctic discharge in our neck of the woods. Given, the different base state this year I think it is entirely reasonable to hope for a higher probability of impact if the SSWE were to occur (and assuming that it couples). So I for one am still hoping for one.

Please do not provoke the SER. It achieved consciousness last year and it is aware of all mockery.

I think we've been kind of blocking it out because we've been wallowing in the misery of an endless SE ridge, but flyover country has had several notable cold outbreaks over the last few years. So it can still get cold, there at least. Here's the on that almost brought modern civilization to its knees in Texas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2021_North_American_cold_wave

I suspect very, very rarely anywhere outside of Antarctica. Here is a copy of the "official" chart from WEATHER.GOV. You'd have to have below -45 F with > 60 mph winds.

I like the -NAO, but not a fan of the +EPO or -PNA. is this a "good" look?