cbmclean

Has the STJ been unusually dormant for a Nino? My understanding is that STJ systems are the Nino bread and butter but seems less fruitful than hoped so far.

Technically they weren't burning water per se, just the layer of pollution on TOP of the water. https://www.sciencehistory.org/stories/distillations-pod/the-myth-of-the-cuyahoga-river-fire/

We are approaching the nadir of the morale wave.

That doesn't really satisfy me. An index, any index, be it NAO, AO, EPO, PNA or whatever is a description of an observed pattern of measurements. It is not, in and of itself a mechanistic explanation of WHY the observed pattern is occurring, or why it has certain consequences. And saying that heights in the SW are low because the -PDO is tautological. It's like saying that something is hot because the thermometer has high readings.

Is it really cherry picking? More like turd scooping.

The blue line is the 540 dm height line, and not the better known 540 dm thickness line. The 540 thickness line is well known to approximate line for where it is cold enough to snow, but I have no idea what the 540 height line represents. Anybody else know.

I know you are currently frolicking in VT, but any idea if you got any on MT PsU today?

Optimism and pessimism aside, what are our chances of getting some of that to come east? The -NAO would argue for it, but I'll wait until Chuck approves. I have heard that the EPS is looking nice after MLK day.

Winter Savior?

Sadly I have none to offer, and I haven't heard anyone else offer a convincing one.

Honest question for you sir: is the question above rhetorical?

What happened in the MA in 1987?

Is that an angel number?

I think Ralph might object to the WAR. Seriously though, is there a reason that WAR wouldn't be a problem? The -NAO isn't really a block there, just a Greenland heat dome.

Just noticed @brooklynwx99 posts in the NE subforum. He's not just a bigamist like me but a trigamist!

I guess it Usedtobe colder.

This IS real life. I just work to pay for internet to support my weather habit.

I like the extension of the heights into Alaska, but doesn't this screen cold dry/warm wet?

Pretty, but a day 12 op?

Yes they do, we just don't monitor them obsessively for 28 model runs across 5 models. Well, maybe @Jebman does.

That's a major accomplishment for the UHI capitol of the western world.

Was anyone able to record anything beyond a trace today?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_upper_tropospheric_trough

I stumbled on to this site back in 2012 when I was trying to understand that awful pac puke parade of a winter. I remember a moment of enlightment when the patter "changed" but to another sucky pattern. Can't remember what the change was but if I had to guess it probably took a brief break from Pack Puke to a NPAC ridge. At the time I think I just thought there was a "good" pattern and a "bad". But someone on the board pointed out that the pattern definitely changed, but it just transitioned to another sucky pattern. That lead me to realize that there are multiple different types and degrees of patterns, and only a small subset of them are good for our regions.

Threatened? Like seriously?