cbmclean

Yes, but that appears to pertain more to thicknesses as opposed to heights. I know that thicknesses are closely related to virtual temperature, and I know that thicknesses are related to heights. But if you look at maps of gph anomalies vs temp anomalies, you can tell they are related but never identical. What I would like to understand is why they are different.

I understand it is a big ask but I appreciate the attempt. One thing I have noticed is that for many topics, for example Calculus, differential equations, planetary science etc., there is a large amount of material available for those who are beyond the basics but who aren't ready for the 4 year degree level. For synoptic meteorology, not so much. Most of the stuff I can find is the basic stuff. I learn a lot lurking here.

I wanted to say something meaningful about this but realized i could not because I have very little understanding of what actually causes ridges or troughs. If someone asked you to explain the mechanism(s) by which synoptic-scale variations in geopotential height arise and move around, how would you do it in a paragraph? I know that thicknesses are highly correlated to average temperature in a column of air, but is it just that simple for heights: cold air = low heights and warm air = high heights? Assume your listener has a strong background in basic physics but very little detailed knowledge of fluid dynamics.

You grunted it?

Better get the knee in shape!!

TNH?

I had thought that this was only the 3rd warmest?

Now that you mention it, I think it was 2011-12 that as the Pac Puke winter (one of many in the future I am afraid).

I was looking around for that easy-to-use NCEP reanalysis site that you use. You gave me the link to it one time but I have lost it. Can you give it again?

Maybe we can manage a miserable cold, wet Easter.

I could have sworn that 2012-2013 was a Pac Puke year. I seem to remember that being the year I learned about the joys of the Alaska vortex.

As you have mentioned many times it is likely that there are at least two additive factors at play in our recent snow woes 1. The perma-SER courtesy of the -----PDO 2. Pack puke episodes which are more frequent, stronger, and longer in duration due to pac warm pool/hadley cell expansion/Babar The PDO flipping should hopefully help with factor 1 but I don't know of any reason why it would help with factor 2. So when the PDO flips it's a matter of do we get 80% back or 20% back (or whatever). I think 100% is out of reach sadly.

Can you stop by Wilson, NC on the way down, pick up their snow climatology and take it back to them? I don't want it here.

I know I take things literally but I was not being serious about the infinitesimally slow decrease in rotation rate causing climate impacts on a decadal scale. I was just poking a bit of fun at those mocking Chuck.

He's correct, at least about the slowing part. https://www.science.org/content/article/ancient-eclipses-show-earth-s-rotation-slowing

Now that we have established that @psuhoffman is a stalker, I propose we just start a PDO watch, sort of like how Nightline started specifically to follow the Iran hostage crisis.

Meh, you might care too much about what they think.

That would make sense to me if the arctic cold pool was "standing its ground" as it were, but since the high latitudes are warming faster, I would expect arctic/polar jets to retract faster then than the STJ, thus lessening the latitudinal temperature gradient and leading to weakening of the jets.

I hope you're right...

That was what made it worse than 2019 to me. That year the epic look hovered just outside d16. But this year it was moving nicely up in time and then.... Just so frustrating.

Do you find that unexpected or surprising?

RDU record is 1,164 days from December 1989 to Feb 1993: https://abc11.com/north-carolina-snow-nc-drought-last-time-it-snowed/14449555/

Sure, but I was more referring to the fact that a +PDO might not have saved the Jan 6-7 event. But perhaps it might reduce the probability of such events because the cold wouldn't have to constantly fight against SER and thus it might take only 1 - 2 weeks for thermals to recover from pac puke instead of 3 - 4. It's all speculation of course. We simply watch and wait.