cbmclean

Eh median is not out of the question then. I'll be rooting for you!

Yeah I guess we're just stuck waiting for the PDO flip to occur to see what happens. I don't really have a good feel as to what happens then. If a time traveler came from 30 years in the future and said "Yeah it flipped but it didn't help much and DCI is now Myrtle Beach", I wouldn't be surprised. On the other hand if they said "Yeah it flipped and we got back to maybe 85% of what we had" I wouldn't be shocked either.

What are you at for this season? My home forum is pretty much closing up shop and I'm just staying on here to try to help will you to at least median.

In today's base-state, between the two which do you guys think is more destructive to east CONUS snow: Pac Puke (Pacific Trough regime) or SER/-PNA/Pacific Ridge regime? They both suck ass, and the three previous winters had nearly endless -PNA but overall I think the SER is less evil than Pac Puke. At least in the SER regime the source regions are still cold and a nice -EPO can cause it to get shunted our way from time to time. For Pack Puke, once it sets in we're punting a bare minimum of the next three weeks (often four or five) as the source regions are completely scoured of cold and after it relaxes we have to gradually build it back up. On the other hand of course, when the -PNA is dominant and immobile like it was last year it is obviously a complete killer. While I'm hopeful that a switch to +PDO might help with the SER, will it do anything to improve the Hadley cell/pacific jet situation that seems to be making Pack Puke episodes longer and more severe?

kneel before King Babar.

i don't know what he knows that you know about Chuck.

I see. So by the same token, in today's warmer, wetter base state a +PDO/-NAO may be less dry and therefore better. OK, how much would it cost me to have you flip the PDO? Do you take Venmo?

I have learned my lesson. If, Chuck isn't onboard, it isn't real.

What bothers me about that though, note that the mythical 60s were -PDO dominant, while the 80s and 90s were +PDO. Just from that graph what would make one think a +PDO was preferable?

We'll be well past fossil fuels, but the extra atmospheric CO2 will linger for several hundred thousand years and some are even theorizing that we have killed the glacial cycles altogether. I'm too depressed to look up the references but they are there. Of course I could easily see atmospheric carbon extraction becoming a viable technology in the next few hundred years. Wouldn't it be funny if people started harvesting CO2 from the atmosphere to make carbon nanotubes or some such and accidentally took too much!!

The thing is, even if you guys luck into something significant before the end, I think we have the "answer" you have been referring to. The Pacific base state is dominant. El Nino is powerless to help (to be fair, maybe it improves "shit the blinds" to simple "shut the blinds"). Kneel before King Babar.

As a churchgoer myself, not sure how I feel about Jesus having a Superbowl add.

Actually, Heavy water freezes at about 38.9 F, so we just need to replace all normal hydrogen with deuterium.

Might be time to break out the Downfall video: Das snow ist befell!!

I blame Canada.

Need to get him treatment immediately. Do you want him chasing snow in the base state of the 2040s?

The LR thread:

Does that include the derating you already factor in for a 2024 base state?

If you mean Babar, I am assuming the record low NA snow extent is correlated to him, but felt no need to go there.

Other guidance is colder, but still not as cold as it "should" be. Perhaps correlated to low continental snow extent?

Am I the only one that notices that PSU and Maestro have the exact same conversation about randomness every year.

Honest question for one wanting to learn: what do you like about it? I see a modest Idaho ridge and some SJ vorticity floating along. I know that is nice in general but what is especially exciting about it?

The mockery is due to its low verification scores. NWP is too complex to always just be able to "adjust for biases". Sometimes you can, like when you just mentally add 5 °F onto whatever the Canadian shows for 2m temps. Other times it's not that simple.

Is there a form we should fill out to have the GFS stripped of its Major model status? In my book if the ICON is beating you it's time to reasses.

I could easily see Mt. PSU getting a inches if it breaks right. Something that is hopefully a footnote to the 60"+ you rake in over the next month .