cbmclean

First mention of Pac collapse. Mark 2024-11-25 14:30 EST

The further we are from a December 2015 pattern, in general the happier I am. So far we're looking good in that realm.

I remember you have mentioned chose your house location specifically to maximize snow accumulation; it worked like a champ today.

Does this mean winter is 4x saved, or can we cache these and save the next three winters as well?

I know this is really banter since it is not relevant to this forum but 1989 was the year we had a white Christmas Eve in Fayetteville, NC! I'm hoping for a repeat but without you guys getting shafted, and also minus the tropical Jan/Feb.

Great, another index to obsess over.

Now we just wait for the inevitable point between 12/1 and 12/10 where someone posts "Eww we loose the pacific at the end of the LR" and it marches forward inexorably in time and we spend the rest of the winter trying to escape alternating Pacific ridges and Pac Puke jet extensions and a month later the pattern looks much better at range but as it gets closer it is improved but the warts start to appear and @Ralph Wiggum starts posting about the WAR and then a really good pattern starts to take shape on every guidance until it all collapses during a Raven's playoff loss... No, I'm not scarred...

It's been several years where the most exciting thing to talk about has been tomato horn worms. Everyone is rusty...

You didn't stay inside out of sympathy?

Where can one find this?

For one thing 2013 - 14 wasn't in the depths of the pit of -PDO despair that we are currently. I think that that takes anything remotely like 2013-14 completely off the table, even in weakened form. But then again as others have noted 2013-14 was highly anomalous to start with.

As far as Webb, I didn't take that particular post of his as necessarily being optimistic, just noting some potential interest. Maybe some others you have seen have been more openly positive. In general I think that a lot of the optimism is just the early season hope combined with what looks like a pretty decent pattern for a week coming up. Sort of like how excited a bad football team's fans can be after they win the first game; they imagine themselves in the super bowl.

In retrospect, I wonder if 2016-2017 wasn't the first herald of the coming ---------------------------PDO episode. I remember there being comment that year that it was barely a Nina, (might have been cool neutral by some metric) yet the atmosphere seemed to couple extremely strongly in a La Nina mode.

You can tell your employer that you have come down with a "sickness" and be completely truthful: snow sickness.

Take her to visit Mt PSU. Sometimes it snows there if you look at the sky too hard...

Anything other than a pig AK vortex or a Pacific Doom Blob is a win this year. Also just getting cooler air injected into NA would be nice. We've learned the hard way that a cool November doesn't necessarily translate to DJF, but I believe that November torches start us even further behind the 8-ball than normal. As an example, take 20122-22 where we had the first solid period of December -NAO in a decade but it accomplished bupkis because the entire continent had been torched in November and once blocking started in December it was just blocking in mild air.

I think our only hope, and it's a long shot, is some sort of odd interaction between the anomalous PDO and the QBO that might lead to the poleward expansion of the C Pac ridge, leading to this being one of the "good Ninas" you have mentioned. Even then though we would be fighting against cold-dry/warm-wet. But I'd rather have that than a 6 month fall.

I found this link for monthly. Doesn;t include October yet though https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

How about the "Commies"?

I care; if we've lost "Big Vodka Cold Joe", it's a bad sign.

Where can you find data on monthly/daily PDO?

Got 0.32 in the bucket this month, it has been incredible feast/famine for our area since May or so: either sopping wet or bone dry.

But look at that 50/50 trough! Just kidding, I'll see myself to the door.

I don't think anybody has been hyping a pattern change in early November, on here at least. There was some guidance which briefly suggested an improvement after the 1st week of November, but there wasn't any hype, just an observation.

Man I despise this raging -PDO.