cbmclean

Don't pull me back in with hope... Too late, I'm back...

Can you explain what you mean when you say you "rolled something forward"?

You whooped us again Chuck. Any thoughts on after Xmas?

A view of the surroundings of the RDU temp sensor:

I chuckled inwardly at this from the RAH AFD Interestingly tonight at 900 PM, RDU was 34 degrees. No other stations (ASOS) were warmer in the state of North Carolina except for the Outer Banks stations surrounded by water and Beaufort on the coast. Even Wilmington was 32. Also of local interest, all the Wake County and Raleigh sites (AWOS and LDAD) were running colder than the RDU ASOS except one. I counted on the order of 25 sites in Wake that reported at 900 PM. Only one site that is urbanized (near downtown) reported 35. Even the hot spot in our CWA, Fayetteville reported 26.

I don't trust it per see, but I think it marginally superior to see good signs at 384 rather than continued crap. I have known several occurrences when a shit the blinds pattern appeared at 384 and marched regally up in time. January 2020 is an excellent example.

Looking at what the latest ensemble guidance is showing: -18Z GEFS At 384 it looks like there may be hints of ridging starting to develop in the EPO domain and maybe a bit in the PNA domain. Looks like an incipient trough forming in the GOA. Not sure if that is good for us or not. -18Z GEPS at 384 has similar hits of ridging maybe staring in the EPO domain. No GOA trough yet. Both still have an eastern ridge though which is no bueno. Of course still waiting for the 0Z EPS. What does everyone else think?

I live in NC (I hang around here because the SE forum is mostly dead unless there is an actual storm imminent, which is rare these days). It is indeed a depressing time for snow lovers here. I have to push back a bit about the pessimism being ludicrous. I've lost count by now but I think something like 5 of the last 7 winters have had a very bad Pacific pattern set in for early/mid December and last through 6 - 12 weeks with some relaxations. In those years the core of winter prime climo was devastated. So seeing the guidance start to point to similar occurrence now I think definitely justifies concern.

Did he ever actually make a specific prediction of a cold and snowy winter? He mentioned the -EPO a good bit which certainly has cold overtones, but I don't recall seeing specific predictions about the winter per se.

Can you explain a bit what a "wave breaking event' is in this context?

Phase 7 is very weakly correlated to negative temp anomalies in MA. Phase 8 is better. In general, the "bad" phases are more strongly correlated to crappiness than the "good" phases are to weenie weather.

This is almost certainly why the GEFS is not wanting to let the Eastern trough return as much as the EPS. Let's hope it is wrong.

I have seen several people opine lately that the GFS/GEFS has been "handling" the Pacific better lately. I'm not sure how to verify that one way or the other but I hope they're wrong. Meanwhile I have been paying close attention to Eric Webb's twitter feed. He has been on the side of expecting continued -EPO/+TPH so I am hoping he is right in that respect. Goodness knows that he was right more often than not when naysaying the hoped-for snowy Nino last year (and also the February torch in 2023).

So does that mean you will be cooking up a huge western trough for New Years in your underground weather lab?

Another outsider perspective: I believe that sports fans in general significantly underestimate the magnitude of the impact of random chance on football. Obviously talent and coaching play a huge role, but a lot of good or bad things that happen in a football game or even an entire season are essentially random. If Harbaugh really does consistently overperform his talent (I don't know if that is the case or not), then I would consider him a good coach by definition, even if he has stumbled in the playoffs. Most coaches stumble in the playoffs. My question to the Raven's fans here is: who in your opinion is actually a BETTER coach than Harbaugh in today's NFL or in the recent past?

Weren't the euro weeklies you posted last night looking pretty good the week leading up to xmas? Yeah yeah, I'm impatient.

Exact same thing happened in Jan/Feb 2019. Models kept trying to revert to an eastern trough at D15. It was discussed that this may have been the models trying to predict a Nino base state that was continually overwhelmed by other forcing. I also seem to member @psuhoffman mentioning that the LR kept trying to revert to Nina base state in ... dare I mention it...2013-2014.

Canceling winter in November. That is very Ji.

Yes.

If it was just a two-week "milder" spell, around normal +/- a few degrees, I wouldn't have a problem with it. But since the -PDOom period started (by that I mean ~2018 or so) every single Pacific crappy period has been long-lasting and with major warm anomalies. MAYBE this year is different with the EPO ridging tendency. I guess we'll see soon enough.

Can this year be the year that we can-kick and then rug-pull the crappy pattern, please?

Come on man we've been here. Every. Single. Year. Once the Pac craps out ~12/10, it's over for December. If you're lucky maybe you can start thinking about MLK day.

First ensemble support for Pacific collapse: Mark 2024-11-27 20:30 EST.

It's Joe Bastardi, top-shelf vodka cold, straight from Mother Russia

But then does the SER try to build? (at work so stuck working instead of looking at models )