cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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Did BAMWx decide they were going to see if it might be fun to be relentless cold-hypers instead of relentless warm-hypers? I would have stuck with the warm hype; there's more future in it
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To clarify I fully agree with the assessment. I just doubt that anyone who hasn't already been convinced is ever going to be.
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Is this some sort of unexpected development?
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Maestro, you're not obsessively monitoring the status of the West Pac warm pool, hoping against hope for any sign of its weakening from it's current "King Kong on a rampage through New York" strength, are you?
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Are you honestly annoyed/surprised that a operational storm at 342 hours, disappeared the next run?
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IF we get cold again (always a big if) it will almost certainly be -EPO driven, so cold dry should be the expectation.
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Even RDU got down to 21 last night. The volcano must have gone dormant for the night.
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Not sure how workable that is. Way too much NPac troughing. Yeah, there is an eastern trough but at best we're left with "domestic" cold, and that doesn't work anymore so it seems.
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If I understand correctly, this little cold spell was a bit of a surprise on in terms of 3/4 week modeling as things looked bad for early December before 11/15 or so. But once it came into 384 range it was pretty stable, which is kind of unusual for modelled cold these days...
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That's surprisingly variable given the look on the mean...
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Here's the H500 for that time: deep NPac trough. Question for the board, does this count as "Pac Puke
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Hey, I'm normal!
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CAPE has had all he can stand and he can't stands no more
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It's Met winter.
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"buh dup CHHHH"
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"Accuracy" is a surprisingly nebulous concept for something as complex as NWP, as it varies widely based on location, season and exactly what parameter you are talking about (H500, qpf etc). That said the Icon has traditionally been considered one of the JV models but I have no idea if that is still true or not.
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The "T" in the Snowfall column stands for "tons" right?
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An dominant -EPO ridge which somehow also manage to time the cold with the moisture to get good snow. Perhaps a one-in-a generation event or even rarer.
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Your argument is probably lost on anyone who would take a 34.75 - 41.75 NWP output seriously to begin with. By the way, greetings fellow SE weenie. If we keep coming up to the MA forum they might have to build a border (fire)wall to keep us out.
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A detailed article on the mechanics of Justin Tucker's woes. Might be of some interest to Raven's fans here. https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2024/12/4/24313037/justin-tucker-misses-baltimore-ravens-struggles-explained-kicking
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Last year, during the period when the models were spitting out THE epic pattern, I believe the analogs were good.
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Your analog mapping seems to agree pretty well with Chuck's "roll forward" methodology: some cold in December followed by SER city in Jan-Feb. That makes me sad.
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Don't pull me back in with hope... Too late, I'm back...
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Can you explain what you mean when you say you "rolled something forward"?
