cbmclean

What are you using to visualize the state of the "Mongolian resource". After it reasserts itself this weekend, what is the time frame you believe it will start to impact the sensible weather in the eastern conus?

Why are you looking at 10 HP temp anomalies?

I remember that well. Like you said, the models were all over the place. I remember commenting that they we were definitely getting either tropical warmth or bitter cold, or bone dry or sopping wet. That time anyway the cold won and it was a memorable cold snap in eastern NC. It got down to 0 F at my house, ponds were freezing over, shore fast ice was forming in the outer banks! That was all she wrote for that winter though. The rest of January was mild. Looked like the MJO was timed to give a Fab Feb but it turned into an utter torch instead.

There are people who legitimately believe the earth is flat. There is literally no amount of evidence that will convince everyone of anything.

I certainly get why it is disturbing to see the eastern CONUS warm in that scenario, but isn't it expected for a strong -EPO to torch our source regions, with the huge ridge there and all? Again I'm not saying that it is not an ugly look, but I would not necessarily have keyed on the warmth in NW Canada.

Have you ever wondered what it would be like if "the elephant" was cooling instead? Every period the 30 year averages go down...the model plots dominated by blue anomalies...cold snaps overperforming...torches constantly disappearing in mid range rug pulls...patterns that used to lead to cold rain suddenly starting to yield 1-3 events...MJO doing an endless circle in 7-8-1-2...every year dreading the Easter cold spell... No I haven't thought about it either...

The temp graphics posted by PSU and Blizzard of 93 seemed incongruous so I went frame-by-frame on Tidbits. It appears that the 18Z GEFS mean is verbatim calling for cool nights but warm days in Dayy 11-16 timeframe. From about Christmas on, the 0Z/6Z timestamps are normal or cool but the 18Z timestamps are warm. Not sure if that is a realistic detail to be picked out by an ensemble but it's interesting.

I was actually just in the MidAtlantic forum. There is some discussion of potential similarity to the Boxing Day 2010 storm. Funny how we have such good memories of that here but for them it was a nightmare. So needless to say they are not overly enthused.

I knew this place would be rockin' after that run. Now sit and wait for the despair when it turns into a 65° rain in 6 hours.

Snow weenies in Wilson NC approve. Of course I am scheduled in to be in NC mountains for Xmas. In the very unlikely even that this were to ever happen, I might have to think about telling the wife to go ahead to her parents and me and the kids will stay home

Man the discobs threads are serious, they are reporting their snow totals in hundredths of an inch. edit: have to add the to make sure no one takes me seriously.

In his defense, you can't pick a more reliably warm time in Winter than right around Christmas. Smart move

Many people have shared this observation. Usually our focus is in forecasting snow, and in that context I suspect that the pattern is a significant driver to the feeling of reduced accuracy. For 8 years give or take we have been in a sort of semi-permanent La Nina which tends to mean northern-stream dominant. And as we know those are inherently more difficult for NWP to handle. If we ever get a canonical Nino response again it's possible that guidance may go back to more familiar levels of stability. There's also the fact that for those 8 years, models have been less stable with predicting snow because, well, the patterns have not been conducive to snow. i can remember several instances where the models stably predicted TORCH from 16 days out, and lo it came to pass (Jan 2020 is an example that comes to mind)

Well there are definitely some interesting takes being throw around by the operationals at range. I just have trouble convincing myself that the thermals will be recovered enough by then.

That would break me: a good snow at my house in Wilson while I am at my in-laws in Old Fort, NC. Luckily for me, the GFS is just playing that cruel game the models do when they give you hope.

He's hacking into the ECMWF, taking over BAMWx's twitter feed. The man is out of control.

@brooklynwx99 You mentioned the solstice window. I'm sure this will lock in, right

As a side note, if one looks closely at the ensemble MJO forecasts, it seems like there are often one or two members that go backwards. I remember reading somewhere that NWP models often not infrequently predict the MJO to go backward, but it almost never happens. That goes into the "I wonder why they can't fix that" file.

So you're going to make everyone go look,huh?

The one that verifies will be the one that loops backwards through 4 -5 -6 again...

The West Pac warm pool is in the equatorial region east of Indonesia. It is potentially connected to the MJO. Specifically, the expansion of the warm pool over the last decade or so is thought by some to be a driving force in the strong bias to the "bad" phases of the MJO (i.e. 4-6) observed in that time frame. Meanwhile the PDO is a pattern of observed temp anomalies in the North Pacific. As to how/if they are connected, my blanket assumption in weather is that everything is connected to everything. In any event both conditions appear to be positively correlated to greater prevalence and intensity of southeast ridges and hence east coast snow weenie tears.

So you don't want a high of 3.06 °F near DC and 2.98 °F near Baltimore?

I'm still not ready for a world where Ji is the one trying to keep everybody optimistic...

My homeland (eastern NC) has already passed that point I think.