cbmclean

Good point.

I am hopeful that some of the gulf warmth is due to the eternal SER associated with our --------PDO episode. IF (big IF) that backs off in a +PDO hopefully the gulf warmth can back off some.

A fascinating graphic: some musings: 1. The east has clearly been hit harder than the west. This actually gives me a bit of hope. Yeah there is nasty background warming but perhaps there really is a multidecade cycle that happens to be "favoring" eastern NA for warmth. 2. On the other hand, the eastern CONUS is on average lower in elevation than the west which suggests that it is less able to rely on elevation for cold and is this more dependent on cold air advection from the source regions. So it makes sense that combined trends of warmer source region and increased pacific influence are hurting the east worse. 3. Man 1998-2000 looks like it was an ugly period.

A good time for snow chances to raise from the dead! Ba-dup-chuh. I'll be here all week everbody. Don't forget to tip your wait staff.

Yeah, but what do the temps show? Looks mean nothing without temps.

She sang last month and went back to bed.

Yes, but that appears to pertain more to thicknesses as opposed to heights. I know that thicknesses are closely related to virtual temperature, and I know that thicknesses are related to heights. But if you look at maps of gph anomalies vs temp anomalies, you can tell they are related but never identical. What I would like to understand is why they are different.

I understand it is a big ask but I appreciate the attempt. One thing I have noticed is that for many topics, for example Calculus, differential equations, planetary science etc., there is a large amount of material available for those who are beyond the basics but who aren't ready for the 4 year degree level. For synoptic meteorology, not so much. Most of the stuff I can find is the basic stuff. I learn a lot lurking here.

I wanted to say something meaningful about this but realized i could not because I have very little understanding of what actually causes ridges or troughs. If someone asked you to explain the mechanism(s) by which synoptic-scale variations in geopotential height arise and move around, how would you do it in a paragraph? I know that thicknesses are highly correlated to average temperature in a column of air, but is it just that simple for heights: cold air = low heights and warm air = high heights? Assume your listener has a strong background in basic physics but very little detailed knowledge of fluid dynamics.

You grunted it?

Better get the knee in shape!!

TNH?

I had thought that this was only the 3rd warmest?

Now that you mention it, I think it was 2011-12 that as the Pac Puke winter (one of many in the future I am afraid).

I was looking around for that easy-to-use NCEP reanalysis site that you use. You gave me the link to it one time but I have lost it. Can you give it again?

Maybe we can manage a miserable cold, wet Easter.

I could have sworn that 2012-2013 was a Pac Puke year. I seem to remember that being the year I learned about the joys of the Alaska vortex.

As you have mentioned many times it is likely that there are at least two additive factors at play in our recent snow woes 1. The perma-SER courtesy of the -----PDO 2. Pack puke episodes which are more frequent, stronger, and longer in duration due to pac warm pool/hadley cell expansion/Babar The PDO flipping should hopefully help with factor 1 but I don't know of any reason why it would help with factor 2. So when the PDO flips it's a matter of do we get 80% back or 20% back (or whatever). I think 100% is out of reach sadly.

Can you stop by Wilson, NC on the way down, pick up their snow climatology and take it back to them? I don't want it here.

I know I take things literally but I was not being serious about the infinitesimally slow decrease in rotation rate causing climate impacts on a decadal scale. I was just poking a bit of fun at those mocking Chuck.

He's correct, at least about the slowing part. https://www.science.org/content/article/ancient-eclipses-show-earth-s-rotation-slowing

Now that we have established that @psuhoffman is a stalker, I propose we just start a PDO watch, sort of like how Nightline started specifically to follow the Iran hostage crisis.

Meh, you might care too much about what they think.