cbmclean

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The 10-12th setup is pretty good for you and me. Not the same mechanism as the current storm. Won't have such a strong WAA surge and trajectory is pretty good for snowfall from the NC piedmont westward. Strung out Miller A is a good description. Rain/snow line will more vertical instead of horizontal. 

Of course all these thoughts are moot if there is no shortwave to draw things northward. Not at a stage where we can have any confidence in a specific shortwave. Just that heights thru the period favor a good hit in NC and SWVA

Thanks Bob.  I know my climo.  I have no pretensions.  Just would like to get on the board this year after two straight dead ratters.

Looking at the ensembles at the end of their range, none look truly bad.  GEFS seems to look worst, GEPS and EPS look better.  Right now no epic looks.

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Maybe people are already discussing - but the models definitely showing this trend. 

 

 

Well that's a fookin buzzkill.

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Something we don't usually consider until closer to crunch time, but thought I'd check now is 5H pressure tendencies.  We need ridging out front to push that system north. This map shows very nice ridging developing to block the system from sliding south of us. Obviously, too much is bad, but those details will wait. Suffice to say that the Euro would bring this baby north.

Hey no, stealing our snow!  Seriously though as a guest from the SE forum I am really happy it look slike many of you will get the goods starting tomorrow.  I hope you clean up this winter snow on snow on snow...  Once you're satiated though, could you send a few crumbs our way?  We've been baaaaaaaad off...

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I have a feeling we may ultimately lose this one to the north as well.

That's always the most likely outcome.  Previously, every once in a while the fail failed to fail and we got hit.  Can that still happen going forward?  TBD.  But this looks like the best chance we've had in a while.  Best is relative though.  Still more likely to fail than not.

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I did my part…

I thought you'd be taller.

Just now, wncsnow said:

Best weenie run of the season from the GFS? 

I'd allow it.

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah ya got one mod with drunken pbp earlier, another who came in buzzed...yep, that kind of night, lol

Did you turn your weather-block software off?

2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Fv3 is like the high res GFS if I remember. Looks great too

And I thought the FV3 was the new GFS!

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Does anyone know why ncep never developed a high res version of the GFS similar to the Rgem and high res euro (not sure of they discontinued that when the euro op went high res). 

I thought the NAM was a high result ion GFS?

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nice dump of cold air. Legit cross polar flow at the end of the run.

0Z GEFS and GEPS both show an eastern conus trough at the end.  I didn't like the look on the 0Z Euro at 384 but maybe it was just reloading?

Edit: not sure what I was looking at but the 0Z EPS look snot bad at 360...

Well we can have BN temps and AN precip...just not at the same time.

I wonder if Eric Webb will make hay with the NAM sleet fest.  He's been very downish on this threat for the MA.  Today he hurt my feelings by raising the specter of Jan 2017 when central-eastern NC had a solid event forecast and at the last minute the NAM sniffed out a warm nose that reduced our 6 - 9" to maybe 1" of sleet and freezing drizzle.

18z euro

weenies emboldened for snow

Webb says Bah Humbug

Eric Webb has made it his personal mission to deb this storm for the midatlantic.  Will be interesting to see to see how it shake sout.

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

thats as subtle as i can get. 

Is now a good time to break out my rolling model review via Haiku into the storm thread?

24 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

the parent ECMWF.

Curious, is there any meaningful "parent-child" relationship between the ECMWF and the ECMWF AI, besides they fact that they are created by the ECMWF?  It seems like any data-driven AI model would be completely different from any numerical integration model.

@psuhoffman How are the snow and temps up in British Columbia?

15 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I believe his home base was North Carolina so his starting reference is there. Thought he was in New Mexico last year not sure now

He's from NC originally (very close to where I am from actually) but not sure where he he is physically located now.  His demeanor can be offputtingly smug but he is ignored at peril.  He seems to know his stuff as annoying as it can be sometimes.  On the flipside he was one of the first people I remember to seriously beat on the -EPO drum for this winter.

echo

The PBP has my head spinning.  So the 50/50 low is too strong?

Oh wait, now we need a suppressed cutter.

Well, we found a new way to fail: introducing the "suppressed cutter".

14 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Step one, be a legit team. 

Step two, get back to the playoffs. 

Step three, move back to DC.

Step four, change the name.

Change name to what?

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I'm starting to go into a mode of waiting for the blocking to break down to expect anything. Seems like we had some strong cold back in Jan 2017 and it was dry as well...

You're probably thinking of Jan 2018?  Super cold snap, almost too suppressed for down here!!

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

While attention is rightfully on the snow chances, here are my thoughts on the temps at 12z


.

Make sure to secure the shield generator.