cbmclean

Nino, Nina, neutral, weak, strong, whatever: I don't think it makes any difference anymore. We were a marginal snow environment. Now we are beyond marginal.

Not to bemoan the past, but on that last play when Lamar took off running, did anyone else think that he had a better shot of just running straight in instead of the lateral? For the record, I'm a Dolphins fan so I'm actively rooting for my quarterback to retire for his own good.

I had the same thought. Come December it will wake up and be in our face.

It's not an arctic SST plot, just a global SST plot which show some mild coolness in the arctic waters. TBH it's probably skewed by the map projection but sadly these days its notable anytime the arctic waters are not on fire. It's in the pdf file here at the top of page 5. https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1831185547861114940?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1831186136410050579|twgr^3847f70096fb40c4642e071f9426502d5d50c64b|twcon^s2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fphilklotzbach%2Fstatus%2F1831186136410050579%3Ft%3DDKkvBGAWwanHEHBgGhKPHg26s%3D19#:~:text=https%3A//tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024_0903_seasondiscussion.pdf

Thanks. I will try and plot it tonight. Looks like they have only been issuing an ACE prediction in April since 1995. June and August predictions go back to 1984.

Get a load of that unusual SST anomaly plot on page 5 of the CSU report. The arctic ocean basin actually with negative anomalies? I should screenshot and save to look back on fondly when the artic ocean finally finishes boiling off in 2035 or so.

If anyone has access to the complete dataset of their April predictions vs the actual season, I'd love to plop it into excel and graph it.

1.85 yesterday and overnight.

First good downpour since Debby here. 1.11 and counting.

I was just looking at the radar and thinking about you. Looks like a slow mover as well. Send some rain over to Wilson please.

Nothing bodes well for winter these days.

I suspect you're not wrong. After experiencing the last 10+ falls I am just taking it for granted that the SER will be the default state this fall (and probably this winter too).

This upcoming week looks spectacular in NC.

RDU immediately records a temperature of 112 °F. Officials assure that the calibration checks out. (Just kidding of course)

I am curious. Does your weather station have some sort of blockage warning or did you figure it out when it was raining but the gauge wasn't going up?

5.16" for the storm to date.

Is it possible that our unusually dry June may turn out to have been a blessing in disguise, giving the ground more buffer for a wet 2nd half of July and now Debbie?

The last three days have had eerily similar precipitation patterns in NC. Seabreeze initiated stuff gets going and moves up I-95 in the mid-afternoon, followed by a line of storms swinging in from the west. Frustratingly, for me the early stuff has found ways to juke and jive around me all three days and the eastward moving line dies right as it gets too me. I wonder if the northward propagating early stuff creates a stable corridor that inhibits the eastward line.

Had a cluster of cells do Olympic-level gymnastics to dodge around me.

Man that line coming from the west just disintegrated.

@NorthHillsWx A beautiful cell just went between us, looks like you might pick up some of the side stuff. Grr, picked up a ton of rain last month but I still just want MORE (without flooding).

11.89" for the month. Annoyed that I couldn't scrounge out that last 0.11" Grass looks lush and green.

No to be frank I didn't see it coming. Most wet periods seem to underperform, but this was not one of them. Got 1.85" today for a monthly total of 11.89".

Past 11.43" for the month and still raining. Wilson is one giant puddle. The soil cannot hold anymore.

Got 1.03" overnight for a monthly total of 10.04". We've gone from drought to swamp.