cbmclean

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

0Z runs definitely took the Christmas spirit (hope) with them.  Trend or blip TBD.

The GEFS still looked pretty to my eyes...

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS tries on Jan 2 but it’s really too warm at the surface… need to push that storm back a few days or at least overnight. 

The whole 0Z GFS was a comedy of "cold dry/ warm wet" with stiff cold shots interspersed with torches as our beloved Baja trough makes a reappearance.  Let us hope it does another 180 degree turn at 6Z.

44 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Dulles has had 18 January storms of 6”+ since 1964. Eight of those came in 4 winters (2 each in 1966, 1987, 1996 and 2000.)

I thought that 2000 was a one-shot year?

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

total cave

Its nice to see it back away from the western trough.  I don't think Chuck will be impressed by the puny blocking signal, though.

ETA: Puny to him anway.

8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

DT started barking now: we know what that means

We're doomed?

17 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

You'll shoot your eye out, kid!

 

Life Buoy for you!!

Could be worse.  It has a nice, piquant aftertaste.

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

That and Temple of Doom. The 1984 PG apocalypses…

You mean watching a guys heart get pulled out isn't kid friendly?

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

A Christmas Story is my jam on Xmas eve. Watch it with my kids every year

Oh fuuuuuuuuuuuudge.

Gremlins was one of the drivers from the creation of the PG-13 rating.

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

@griteateris posting

 

Excuse me sir, This is the Panic Room, no positive news here.

Hold on guys, panics are ugly things...(looks in long range thread)...,oh crap

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I know this is the panic room so I will make the necessary disclaimer- I am in no way trying to talk you off the ledge. IF the end of this op run ended up being the actual outcome at that time, what do you think it might look like a day or 2 later?

I'm not really on the ledge I'm just letting my negativity hang out in the Panic thread.  I'm careful not to clutter up the main thread.  To answer your question, if the ridge ahead of the trough can find somewhere to go without messing up the 50/50, we'd be in a good place.

18z GFS is first chink in the epic pattern?  This is how it always seems to start.   One operational shows some bizarre crap at the end and we all laugh it off as an op at range...

Modelerd pattern beginning to look epic...that is usually the sign that the collapse is coming soon.  Will it be a slow bleed, or a cankick/rug pull?

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is actually trending better, somehow 

Trough axis shifting West, to be less off the shore.  Not bad 

I got this cool shot of PSU going to check the mail while looking down at the snowless lowlands.

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

This is no joke, I swear.  Last night I dreamed that somehow the jet stream oriented itself so that it was running directly from Mongolia right over the pole to us.  I was like a Cassandra telling people to be ready for record cold but my neighbors didn't believe me.  Unfortunately I woke up before anything happened but it's gotta be a sign for something.  

@WEATHER53 approves.

53 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

if I miss the Jan 1996 redux ill be inconsolable 

Like you wouldn't just cancel your vacation if that was looking probable.  Surely everyone in your family would understand.

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Several years recently I was working on my “winters over” draft about now!  

Be sure to take notes for the inevitable "what went wrong analysis" you have to write around 12/26 when the ensembles suddenly show a ridge from gulf to pole.

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I was going to check some of the CIPS analogs so this is nice to see. Early December analogs often were a bunch of traces…which is what we got.

 

Gee, top analog 1985-01-21.  Merely the day that RDU set it's all-time record low of an incredible -9 F.  The height of the January 1985 polar outbreak.

36 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

That just makes me hungry for ChickFilA.

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced

Yeah I know but there can be too much of a good thing there.  Torch them too much and there is nothing there to displace, at least nothing helpful to us 

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS, at least the SER is squashed for awhile if this verifies.....and cold air is building back in with the can being kicked....

Not a fan of seeing Canada and Siberia torching at the same time.  

3 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

I'm not an expert AT ALL, bust isn't the ridge axis too far west? I thought we wanted it around ID, not off the coast of OR?

Well, in that panel it gives room for the trough axis to be west of us, which gives waves more room.  Obviously there can be too much room at times.  Everything is a balance.

5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I hope no February 2024 flop

That possibility is always on the table.  Have to always keep that in mind.