cbmclean

Man I despise this raging -PDO.

They're just setting up for the inevitable post where they gleefully exclaim the complete turnaround in mid-range modelling overnight shows us torching. Seriously though I can't even get mad at the negative naysayers anymore because they are always right these days it seems. The only time they have been wrong lately is last year when many of them were fooled by the universal agreement on the modelled nirvana pattern.

I'll set the over/under on Pacific Jet Extensions as 2.5. The combo of the PJE and raging SE ridge has been simply killer. The PJE scours all cold from the entire continent. After it shuts off, the cold air slowly builds back from the source regions but it takes forever fighting against the SER. By the time it almost gets here...BOOM, another Pac Puke. Rinse and repeat ad naseum.

Made a valiant run at 11" but didn't quite make it. Ended with 10.77". Two out of the last three months over 10". It's been soupy.

Good gracious! What is your 3 month total for July/August/September?

You've really been in the bullseye this month; I just passed 7" today. I recall you were one of the worst hit by the flash drought back in June. Weather is fickle.

Apparently we're having a record -NAO for September. Still haven't seen any snow.

Nino, Nina, neutral, weak, strong, whatever: I don't think it makes any difference anymore. We were a marginal snow environment. Now we are beyond marginal.

Not to bemoan the past, but on that last play when Lamar took off running, did anyone else think that he had a better shot of just running straight in instead of the lateral? For the record, I'm a Dolphins fan so I'm actively rooting for my quarterback to retire for his own good.

I had the same thought. Come December it will wake up and be in our face.

It's not an arctic SST plot, just a global SST plot which show some mild coolness in the arctic waters. TBH it's probably skewed by the map projection but sadly these days its notable anytime the arctic waters are not on fire. It's in the pdf file here at the top of page 5. https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1831185547861114940?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1831186136410050579|twgr^3847f70096fb40c4642e071f9426502d5d50c64b|twcon^s2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fphilklotzbach%2Fstatus%2F1831186136410050579%3Ft%3DDKkvBGAWwanHEHBgGhKPHg26s%3D19#:~:text=https%3A//tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024_0903_seasondiscussion.pdf

Thanks. I will try and plot it tonight. Looks like they have only been issuing an ACE prediction in April since 1995. June and August predictions go back to 1984.

Get a load of that unusual SST anomaly plot on page 5 of the CSU report. The arctic ocean basin actually with negative anomalies? I should screenshot and save to look back on fondly when the artic ocean finally finishes boiling off in 2035 or so.

If anyone has access to the complete dataset of their April predictions vs the actual season, I'd love to plop it into excel and graph it.

1.85 yesterday and overnight.

First good downpour since Debby here. 1.11 and counting.

I was just looking at the radar and thinking about you. Looks like a slow mover as well. Send some rain over to Wilson please.

Nothing bodes well for winter these days.

I suspect you're not wrong. After experiencing the last 10+ falls I am just taking it for granted that the SER will be the default state this fall (and probably this winter too).

This upcoming week looks spectacular in NC.

RDU immediately records a temperature of 112 °F. Officials assure that the calibration checks out. (Just kidding of course)

I am curious. Does your weather station have some sort of blockage warning or did you figure it out when it was raining but the gauge wasn't going up?

5.16" for the storm to date.

Is it possible that our unusually dry June may turn out to have been a blessing in disguise, giving the ground more buffer for a wet 2nd half of July and now Debbie?

The last three days have had eerily similar precipitation patterns in NC. Seabreeze initiated stuff gets going and moves up I-95 in the mid-afternoon, followed by a line of storms swinging in from the west. Frustratingly, for me the early stuff has found ways to juke and jive around me all three days and the eastward moving line dies right as it gets too me. I wonder if the northward propagating early stuff creates a stable corridor that inhibits the eastward line.