cbmclean

Doesn't quite want to quit here; up to 0.56".

0.30" so far. Third straight rainy Saturday, although the QPF from today and last week is not really amounting to much.

I'm afraid to say this as much as we need the rain, but I really just want a cool, fallish Saturday with deep blue skies. I really want to work on my shed. Had two straight rainy weekends.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2026 Washington Commanders. The Giants players jumping around for a tie was amusing.

A disappointing, but not unexpected, 0.33 for the event. Now a warm week ahead with the possibility of a nice cool down at the end of the week.

0.06" here. The guidance has varied so widely for my location I have no idea how much more I'm going to get. Could be nada or could be a couple of inches. RAH has me in the 1 - 1.5" zone which would be much appreciated. Based on persistence the lower end is definitely in play.

Are we all looking at the same storm?

Beautiful fall weather the last few days. Now warming up a bit with hopefully some rain on the way.

You called it already. Just take credit as we enjoy our 0.09" of drizzle and move on.

Got 0.11" today for event total of 1.64". Much needed.

Ended up with 1.53" of somewhat surprising and much needed rain. Nice to overperform for once.

0.92" in Wilson. Radar looked anemic but it was a pleasant surprise IMBY.

It would be ironic if the super-hyper-mega nino fails to couple in terms of the SJ and we end up with dry Pac puke all winter instead of wet Pac puke.

I wonder if we'll be sick of rain come March.

Unexpectedly heavy rain has snuck in. I'm at 0.60" which has already exceeded the HRRR guidance for the entire weekend (as of the 12Z map that was posted by @olafminesaw). A fast start for a change. Edit: Looks like I'll end with 0.91" for this batch. The radar didn't look too impressive but it was an efficient rain maker.

Latest HRRR as posted by @olafminesaw is a kick in the nads for the norther tier, which for some reason has been unable to catch a break since the end of July. Mean while the southern tier still set for a decent soaking. The NAM still looks much better for the NE quadrant, including Wake, but how much stock can you put in a model that is at death's door? Really impatient for the el nino southern jet stream to kick in

A very disappointing 0.04" after 0.15" overnight. Two day total of 0.42". Not horrible but frustrating when downtown had had 2+.

There is a tiny, stationary cell just pouring on my work, while my home a few miles to the north has nothing. Grr.

Picked up a nice 0.61" this evening. Best rain since July. 1.33" for the month

Fall 2019 was similar, at least in turns of a long, drawn-out, hot fall with a sudden dramatic change in mid/late October. The heat wave culminated in the infamous "100 degree day" at RDU on October 3 (one of the first times I remember skepticism on this site with RDU being at least 2 degrees warner than any other site in the area). Within a relatively short amount of time after a 100 degree day, there were flurries somewhere in the state.

The southern tier of NC continues to do well; a nice long-lasting MCC plowed from well west of Charlotte to Brunswick County.

I'm visiting family for the holiday and wasn't watching the radar closely. Did anyone capture a file?

In the northern part, close to Lake Wilson.

A disappointing 0.20" today.

Two items 1. Thunderstorms require a source of lift to form. The western piedmont trough is such a source, which is why many times cell pop-up there first. 2. Thunderstorms are by nature self-limiting as the downdraft from the rain chokes of the convective updraft. There must be some mechanism to separate the downdraft from the updraft for a system to last. One example is shear. In a stagnant dynamic environment, which is very common in this area in late summer, it is common for cells to pop off the piedmont trough but then die quickly without any mechanism to keep them going. That's not the whole story, but it's definitely a major part. Some of it is also just bad luck.