cbmclean

Oh, I missed the obvious on that one. I thought it was more esoteric like SWFE or FROPA.

GEFS has notably more AK ridging, than EPS. Would love to see a more +PNA.

What is "cola"?

Are we so back yet?

Thanks CAPE. Not germane to this thread but when Googling I came across a Wikipedia article on the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge which was our friend in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Of general interest so I link to it here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridiculously_Resilient_Ridge

Yes, but what I did not understand is that the blockage is not a simple consequence of the existence of the the geopotential height anomalies, but rather some additional factor which causes the patter to remain stationary.

I'm philosophically opposed to parsing operational at D10+ but I am curious; I would describe this as a +PNA but also a +EPO: there's still a huge area of low heights in AK. Would that be accurate?

So what you're saying is it's not the pattern of the geopotential height anomalies that cause the block, but the fact that the anomalies are stationary? That tells me that I know even less than I thought I did.

I second this question. I have heard many comments to the effect that a ridge over Greenland does not equate to a block, it's the dipole between the ridge and the 50/50 low. There is a big dipole there. Well it is a bit south and west of 50 N 50 W, but it's not really that far.

I'm all for it, but I think to get meaningful cold in the SE that AK trough needs to exit stage left

I just heard Harbaugh started a blog devoted entirely to long range snow maps. Might be right up your alley.

I think he meant to say, "there is no OVERstating..."

At this range, looking too cold is usually a good thing.

No explanation, but I have to mention that someone posted JB saying he thought a trough would retrograde from the east. Maybe he was on to something.

It's their first 4+ snowfall in several years, so I am happy for them. I root for everyone to get snow as long as it doesn't directly steal from MBY which is not usually an issue.

To be frank it makes me nervous. We want the pac jet to extend enough to keep the Aleutian ridge at bay but too much and North American cold goes bye bye. It's a delicate balance.

I like some of the trends for later in Jan on the "weeklies", but the low heights currently progged for AK on the EPS leave me unenthused for the first 10 days or so.

I'm just going to save Chuck the trouble of posting: 507 dm in Alaska means not cold enough.

No kidding; I was never sold on Tua even coming out of college. I don't question his heart but he just doesn't have the body to take NFL pounding, and it seems as if he just doesn't have the skill to do the reads if his first target is taken away. But he had that good year at just the right time and they threw ridiculous money at him. I was kind on interested in getting a fan's eye view of Lamar though. For an outsiders view it seems as if he is stagnating. Maybe it's just the injuries or the line play or a combination. I wonder if he might benefit from a change of scenery.

So my Dolphins are apparently a rumored trade destination for Lamar. Hypothetically, if it were to happen, would Ravens fans be sad to see him go? That will tell me a lot about whether I should be hopeful or not.

Honest question: why are the low heights over AK not bad in this instance?

The models saw this current nationwide warm spell coming, and it happened. The NE seaboard was definitely spared the worst of it, but we can't say the warmth didn't verify.

Finished dead last in my fantasy league this year. Lamar was my QB. Justin Jefferson was my top scoring threat.

Believe me, I have no doubt we could go right back into the oven. I'm more just reminding myself that even though Ops seemed to catch on to the pattern improvement, I can't just ignore them if they show warmth.

Live by the ops, die by the ops. You didn't think we were going to get a nice uncomplicated cold pattern did you?