cbmclean

Blame the gravity waves.

RAH AFD mentioning the possibility of losing QPF due to a "gravity wave". Wikipedia essentially describes a gravity wave as any wave where gravity is the restorative force, which describes a lot of waves. There is a section on atmospheric examples but it's very broad. Anyone care to share on what gravity wave means in the context of NC weather? Waves of moderate showers and storms will continue to be directed across the Carolina Wed evening into Thurs morning ahead of a back-door cold frontal passage slowly sagging south across the southern Mid-Atlantic. Precip chances may be negatively impacted by any gravity wave development during this time, which can rapidly erode precip generation in this type of pattern. By Thurs morning, the combination of frontogentical forcing and an area of low pressure rippling along the front will likely bring another round of widespread showers and isolated storms before shifting east of the area by late Thurs evening. Uncertainty in timing of the fropa is resulting in lower confidence in the development of an unstable air mass supportive of surface-based convection Thurs afternoon, which will be needed to realize any severe potential. Strong and increasing shear with height will be highly favorable for storm organization, but conditional on development of deep convection first. Storm total rainfall through Thurs evening looks to bring much needed rain to the area with the reasonable low-end from the HREF still producing a swath of 0.75 to 1" somewhere over the Carolinas. However, the experimental REFS paints a troubling alternate scenario with reasonable low-end amounts closer 0.25 to 0.5". With the potential for gravity wave development and more quickly eroding shields of precipitation, this scenario can`t be ruled out.

What is "truth"? And did you really mean to phrase that as a question.

0.43" for the day. 1.32" for the week. 1.53" since last Saturday. Together with reduced evaporation from cool temps, the bleeding is stopped...for now.

0.55 last night. 1.10 for the week.

0.17". At least enough to lay the pollen for a bit.

Didn't think I was going to need long pants anymore until the fall, but here we are. Currently 56.1 F, which is also the daily low (so far). Blustery as well.

0.18".

28.6 for a low last night. Last hard freeze of the season?

Crap.

How is it possible for there to be a -PNA with that much of a western ridge? What exactly is the definition of the PNA index?

What is the hypothesized physical mechanism of causation between sunspots (or solar cycle in general) and high latitude blocking?

I had a similar thought about cold chasing moisture, especially east of the Apps and double especially east of the taller Apps down in my neck of the woods. Every model run in history overestimates how fast the cold gets over the mountains and frequently hallucinates phantom snow as a result. Since the AIs are trained on historical data one would think that this bias should go poof on an AI model.

I have seen some debate if this was a Miller A or B or hybrid or what (which is not unusual). I'm beginning to wonder if how useful those categories really are, but I was under the impression that one of the hallmarks of a B was a Ohio Valley low that transfers, and I didn't think that there was one of those in this case. In your perception, what made this storm more "B-ish"?

Webb seems to be really hyping the strength. I suspect he would be gleeful with a strong east-based episode.

Isn't there going to be a western ridge spike, aka +PNA?

Dang Euro with its surface deceptions...

This SE weenie is rooting for you guys!!

OK, honest thermodynamics/atmospheric physics questions that has puzzled me for a long time. Right now my temp is 60.3 °. Temps are dropping very slowly. Sometimes on nights like tonight's the temps completely steady out. The ground is warm so it radiates energy at a high rate. To slow (or even stop) the temperature decrease, something must be adding energy, but what is it? The sky is clear so there is no downwelling radiation from clouds. There is no wind so there is no warm-air advection or turbulent mixing. Where is the energy coming from? Is it radiating from the water vapor in the air?

Down to 23 F this morning. Really impressed with the cold hanging on as much as it can.

I propose consideration to replace all normal water in the biosphere with heavy water (D2O). Since it freezes at ~38.9 °F we could gain a lot of marginal events. We'd have to maintain a supply of regular water for drinking since in large quantities heavy water is toxic.

Some background on AI models. https://x.com/i/status/2021333729088585882

Do you actually think there is a chance to recover any of that loss? I fear that ship may have sailed.

This is getting surreal.

Next year will be extremely telling. If a decent central or even west-based El Nino develops, can you guys score with marginal homegrown cold, without crazy EPO blocking? Are we starting an exit out of the dreg -PDO minimum? Can we ever have regular bad pattern that isn't a shit the blinds?