cbmclean

That "little too aggressive with the cold front" is what is likely to ruin it though, at least for the Triangle East. You have a bit more buffer.

That's a Bloody Maria.

Has anything really changed though? We still lack an established cold high. We're still relying on cold air chasing moisture. I guess higher qpf allows more dynamic cooling?

We should probably organize an area-wide search to find the real Chuck and identify who tied him up and is posting under his name.

I missed his early pronouncements; was he bullish?

He can be annoyingly arrogant so it would be fun to see him get egg on his face, but I don't think it will be this time. As he has pointed out (over and over and over) with no established high the cold air is chasing moisture and in the history of NWP that has never worked out.

Just don't look.

Well, to be fair you can see the entire state (and Virginia too) east of the Apps suffers from a qpf shadow. Sometimes the Apps are nice like when they trap cold air. Other times I wish we could press a button and retract them.

We've been in a -PDO pit for 10 years. That makes La Ninas dominant. LN's kill the southern stream Next year should be wetter. But could be a torch. Pick your poison.

Do you believe that the AMO is a real thing?

I am declaring defeat on Sunday and moving on.

ENC going to get bypassed.

What the heck is the RRFS?

The only thing I trust about the NAM is when it shows a warm nose.

I love radiational cooling. I hate cloudy torch nights in winter I especially hate torch nights where there are no clouds but some how temps do not drop.

Just saw on X that California is drought free for the first time in a while. I guess the dryness went back east to visit relatives.

The Euro suite has been continuously overdoing the NW trough/SER all season in the LR. That said, eventually it is going to be right, and late Jan/Feb in a Nina is often SER season. On the other hand, if we continue to have a strong -EPO, a moderately negative PNA can help fight against over-suppression. As you know it's always a knife's edge down here.

Cold periods during Nina's are pretty much the Carolina Coastal Plain's time to shine.

I like the -EPO and +PNA for down my way, but that might be too much of a good thing for some of you guys, especially the NW crew. Luckily for them it won't look anywhere near that good as the "warts" come into view as it gets closer. Pretty though.

In general I heartily agree. For every suppression risk we have 10x NW trend fails. I'm more worried about the general background state of dryness. As @NorthHillsWx had an excellent point earlier: if it can't rain even when it's warm, what makes us think it can snow? I got zilch yesterday in a warm, muggy airmass. ETA: I meant to say that I got zilch rain Saturday.

Cold outbreaks usually trend less in intensity/extent at verification. Every once in a while that is a good thing for some of us. Last year during that epic Gulf snowstorm, E NC was originally forecast to get nothing as the system was suppressed to oblivion, but the last minute NW trend netted me 3 fluffy inches. The only cold outbreak that I can remember since I really started following weather that did NOT degrade to my knowledge was the Big Chill in late December 2017 early Jan 2018. That seemed to sneak up on me.

Digital grey?

Statistics show that globally, model skill continues to improve although with a diminishing slope. I suspect that a much of the perception in reduced winter performance is a result of the essentially decade long quasi La Nina base state with NS domination, which is inherently more chaotical and more difficult to predict. If you tried to used the 2016 Euro today, I bet it would be notably inferior to the modern Euro.

Wut?

Did I ever tell anyone that in my mind's eye, I picture Chuck as Napolean Dynamite?