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cbmclean

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Everything posted by cbmclean

  1. RDU 10 th percentile is 1 inch, 90 th percentile is 11 inches. Median is between 5 and 6.
  2. This is amping up way too early, I wanted this to hold off until Thursday.
  3. I suspect that IF the storms amps at all, a NW trend is inevitable, because the cold press almost always ends up being overmodeled. Sure, suppressed/OTS is definitely still an option, but as of now I think this is an ideal presentation for Triangle east, with the storm still there but hanging out just off the coast.
  4. This is a beginner weenie mistake for Gemini (one that I have made many many times)...If there is moisture, the cold press almost by definition will not be as strong.
  5. It nailed the low QPF here but I saw some discussion that it badly underestimated QPF in the MA. What makes me a casual weenie is I am too lazy to look back and find out.
  6. It needs to tick E (and preferably SE) for a while to give E NC any hope.
  7. The sad fact is that me being in the bullseye 6 days out means I am likely already out of the game.
  8. Was she alive in 2000? It can happen, once every century or so.
  9. We need it suppressed to Venezuela. Is it in Venezuela? If not, I'm not getting my hopes up
  10. Don't get pulled back in!! It's just trying to play with you.
  11. I want to see suppression until 48 hours before and then watch it trend NW to me. That's how I scored last year.
  12. We talked about wanting to see egg on Eric Webb's face, well he's doing the backstroke in an omelet swimming pool right now. The annoying thing he is not even acknowledging it. He's just carrying on commenting about the ice storm as if he didn't confidently predict there was no way this was going north and implying that NE snow weenies are stupid, dishonest, or both (unless he issued a mea culpa post that I missed).
  13. Exactly, that is what we are rooting for in NC: the north vort to go ahead of the Baja. If they come out fast together then the storm is amped. If they come out slowly together, the storm will be amped AND the cold air will be retreating.
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