cbmclean

Just saw on X that California is drought free for the first time in a while. I guess the dryness went back east to visit relatives.

The Euro suite has been continuously overdoing the NW trough/SER all season in the LR. That said, eventually it is going to be right, and late Jan/Feb in a Nina is often SER season. On the other hand, if we continue to have a strong -EPO, a moderately negative PNA can help fight against over-suppression. As you know it's always a knife's edge down here.

Cold periods during Nina's are pretty much the Carolina Coastal Plain's time to shine.

I like the -EPO and +PNA for down my way, but that might be too much of a good thing for some of you guys, especially the NW crew. Luckily for them it won't look anywhere near that good as the "warts" come into view as it gets closer. Pretty though.

In general I heartily agree. For every suppression risk we have 10x NW trend fails. I'm more worried about the general background state of dryness. As @NorthHillsWx had an excellent point earlier: if it can't rain even when it's warm, what makes us think it can snow? I got zilch yesterday in a warm, muggy airmass. ETA: I meant to say that I got zilch rain Saturday.

Cold outbreaks usually trend less in intensity/extent at verification. Every once in a while that is a good thing for some of us. Last year during that epic Gulf snowstorm, E NC was originally forecast to get nothing as the system was suppressed to oblivion, but the last minute NW trend netted me 3 fluffy inches. The only cold outbreak that I can remember since I really started following weather that did NOT degrade to my knowledge was the Big Chill in late December 2017 early Jan 2018. That seemed to sneak up on me.

Digital grey?

Statistics show that globally, model skill continues to improve although with a diminishing slope. I suspect that a much of the perception in reduced winter performance is a result of the essentially decade long quasi La Nina base state with NS domination, which is inherently more chaotical and more difficult to predict. If you tried to used the 2016 Euro today, I bet it would be notably inferior to the modern Euro.

Wut?

Did I ever tell anyone that in my mind's eye, I picture Chuck as Napolean Dynamite?

We all knew that was coming. The only positive take away is that it also has an east coast storm. I keep hearing the EPS is overdoing the SER consistently for months, so it's not ridiculous to hope this could trend better on the Euro Op

That's like saying the Atacama is in a drought.

In true Dr. No fashion.

I wouldn't worry about it.

We're pretty bad at winter maulings. We're better at mewlings.