cbmclean

I had a similar thought about cold chasing moisture, especially east of the Apps and double especially east of the taller Apps down in my neck of the woods. Every model run in history overestimates how fast the cold gets over the mountains and frequently hallucinates phantom snow as a result. Since the AIs are trained on historical data one would think that this bias should go poof on an AI model.

I have seen some debate if this was a Miller A or B or hybrid or what (which is not unusual). I'm beginning to wonder if how useful those categories really are, but I was under the impression that one of the hallmarks of a B was a Ohio Valley low that transfers, and I didn't think that there was one of those in this case. In your perception, what made this storm more "B-ish"?

Webb seems to be really hyping the strength. I suspect he would be gleeful with a strong east-based episode.

Isn't there going to be a western ridge spike, aka +PNA?

Dang Euro with its surface deceptions...

This SE weenie is rooting for you guys!!

OK, honest thermodynamics/atmospheric physics questions that has puzzled me for a long time. Right now my temp is 60.3 °. Temps are dropping very slowly. Sometimes on nights like tonight's the temps completely steady out. The ground is warm so it radiates energy at a high rate. To slow (or even stop) the temperature decrease, something must be adding energy, but what is it? The sky is clear so there is no downwelling radiation from clouds. There is no wind so there is no warm-air advection or turbulent mixing. Where is the energy coming from? Is it radiating from the water vapor in the air?

Down to 23 F this morning. Really impressed with the cold hanging on as much as it can.

I propose consideration to replace all normal water in the biosphere with heavy water (D2O). Since it freezes at ~38.9 °F we could gain a lot of marginal events. We'd have to maintain a supply of regular water for drinking since in large quantities heavy water is toxic.

Some background on AI models. https://x.com/i/status/2021333729088585882

Do you actually think there is a chance to recover any of that loss? I fear that ship may have sailed.

This is getting surreal.

Next year will be extremely telling. If a decent central or even west-based El Nino develops, can you guys score with marginal homegrown cold, without crazy EPO blocking? Are we starting an exit out of the dreg -PDO minimum? Can we ever have regular bad pattern that isn't a shit the blinds?

We know the true cause is...Leporiphobia.

That Dec 2015 torch scarred me down here in NC. The daytime highs were bad but the ridiculous nighttime "lows" were nauseating. RDU didn't dip below 61 from Dec 23rd through the 28th. Where I was at visiting my parents was even worse. KFAY had back-to-back days of 80/67 on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. It was humid the whole time too, with plenty of gnats and mosquitoes.