Ottawa Blizzard

It's looking like the forecast put out by Canada's Weather Network could be in serious trouble. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/canadas-winter-forecast-update-2019-2020-winter-pattern-locks-in-for-january Environment Canada's forecast looks to be on target, though. https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html Amazing how different the two forecasts are.

Hi Don, with regard to The Weather Network's forecast, please see the link below. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/canadas-winter-forecast-update-2019-2020-winter-pattern-locks-in-for-january I think it goes without saying that their forecast is in trouble.

I'm not sure about The Weather Network Don, but Weatherbell seems to have been basing their forecast on the warm water south of Alaska, and how this apparently led to cold in years like 2003, 2014, and 2015. However, it has to be said that, on his blog this morning, Joe Bastardi has drawn attention to the winter of 1936-1937, which apparently also had warm water in the Gulf of Alaska, but ended up with a warm winter in eastern North America, following a colder than average November. Here is a link to that winter's observations in Toronto. https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=1977&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=Toronto&timeframe=2&Day=1&Year=1937&Month=1

Great write-up Don. It's interesting that, up here in Canada, Environment Canada was the only outlet which called for a mild winter. It was against the grain, and raised eyebrows in other weather outlets; The Weather Network called for a much colder than average winter across much of Ontario. It's looking increasingly likely that Environment Canada and the NWS were right, while Canada's Weather Network and Weatherbell Analytics were wrong.

Ouch! Honestly, it's looking like Environment Canada and the NWS may be heading for victory with regard to their call for a warmer than average winter. They were against the grain and Environment Canada's forecast, in particular, raised some eyebrows up here in Canada from other weather outlets.

I have actually been living in Toronto for the past few years, so don't see as much snow as I used to up in Ottawa. That being said, last winter was pretty good, particularly late January and early February. Currently bare ground in Toronto, although, if you can believe it, we have so far seen more snow this winter than we did throughout the entire winter of 2011/2012. November 2019 was the coldest November in Toronto since 1976, and in the top 5 coldest on record. Was in Montreal last weekend and the difference in temperature compared to Toronto was impressive - about 13 degrees Celsius colder in fact - thanks to the northeasterly flow. As for Ottawa, it looks like they're expecting a fair bit of snow this Sunday and Monday, so you should be good for skiing.

Keep hearing different ideas of how January, and indeed the winter, will turn out. Up here in Canada, Environment Canada is calling for a mild winter ,while The Weather Network is calling for a cold winter. Ryan Maue is calling for a warm first half of January while JB is calling for a big flip to cold. Will be interesting to see how it all turns out. I hope this doesn't go the way of 2005-2006 - that winter was originally predicted to be cold only for January to be a torch.

I'm surprised arctic sea ice is so low when you consider how cold it has been in the Arctic. Forecast for Resolute is below. http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html

Just wanted to drop in and congratulate you guys in Alaska and the yukon who are having such an amazing winter. Has been largely a dud for us out east! Amazing pics by the way!