jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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It’s a SWFE, the vast majority of which suck for NYC and places I-80 and south. On Sat PM we get to roll the dice with another one, hopefully that one ends up better.
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29 and light sleet. Basically a coating. Looks like it’s the maybe we make it to 1” outcome.
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Yep, definitely still in the "hope for the best" stage. The ensembles are encouraging that at least we have threats but as usual it could all fall apart. We should get some snow tomorrow and more on Sat PM but beyond that is fragile depending on the development of one or several waves. North of us is the best place to be.
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Some of the hi-res models look like absolute crap until you're well north into New England. Most of this subforum would struggle to get to 1" of whatever. Hopefully that's wrong and something like the HRRR is right. It'll be a nowcast situation.
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22-24 in this area, NWS has my low at 26. I don’t see the onshore flow being strong enough to get us above 32 before the vast majority of precip is over. I think we get some snow but an inch of crud vs 2-3” depends on it coming in like a wall as the HRRR or shredded crap.
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Low to mid 20s around here. I’m sure temps will spike when the flow strengthens off the water but good that we’re radiating well tonight. It won’t help the mid levels but may keep it frozen.
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Yep if the snow waits until the warm air is right on the doorstep obviously amounts will be low. Hopefully we get a nice ribbon of overrunning snow ahead of it.
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For now yes. Have to be wary about the last minute north trend/rug pulls these type of storm often produce and the mid level low tracks which dictate where mid level warm air goes.
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I’ll believe anything like that when it’s actually happening. I guess one thing in our favor is it looks to be quick moving like the rest of our storms. Maybe we can get the fast heavy snow burst and end with some light sleet or drizzle.
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It’ll be a race between the heavier snow rates and the warm nose aloft. If the heavier rates work out, many of us even the city and coast can see 2-3”. If it’s shredded up, the warm air will have an easier time advancing and sleet/rain will mix in earlier. In the shredded up case I doubt many near the coast/city get over an inch. We need strong lift and rates to hold back the warm mid level push. Maybe it can be held off until the precip is almost done.
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I’d use ensembles this far out.
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Like I said when it’s within 72 hours I’ll get excited. The pattern upcoming has potential but we’ve seen plenty of examples of it falling apart. The ensemble agreement is encouraging.
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HRRR looks pretty good on the soundings during the heavier precip near the city/LI. Hopefully it's not too cold. If the precip comes in like a wall/mod to heavy, it has a better chance at being right. If shredded/broken up, warm air will likely take over sooner because of the precip breaks. The "come in like a wall" outcome is the best chance at a surprise 2-3" near the coast, if shredded/broken up we might struggle to make it over 1" and that would likely be sleet.
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We’d definitely want that solid overrunning snow shield to be confident at getting any real accums. The SWFEs where the precip waits and waits until the cold air is gone never work out.
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I agree that with no strong onshore flow and possibility the surface low stays south of LI, there could be a period of icing for northern NYC and north shore. It’ll be hard to get that whole area above 32 without a decently strong onshore wind. Might be another situation like 2 nights ago where it stayed below 30 north of the Northern State but spiked to 36-38 south of the LIE. But it wouldn’t help with snow, it just means more sleet and then ZR.
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Our climo (around NYC/western LI) is a transition between Mid-Atlantic/DC like and SNE like. So we can benefit from both types of winter storms that hit each or get missed/porked by both. The Hudson Valley is a transition between western New England and E PA. The eastern half of LI I’d say is more New England, specifically RI and SE Mass.
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I don’t know, I think the New England forum started it and it makes sense because they’re warm mid level overrunning events on SW flow so it caught on.
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Agree, no idea why people at this latitude root them on. You have the rare 2/22/08 or 11/14/18 where the snowy front end actually happens but 5/6 of them or more are crap south of I-84. They’re good for New England and UNY.
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If the snow comes in like a wall and starts heavy, the warm mid level air can usually be held off a bit, but if it comes in chopped up/shredded the warm air can move in quicker. This doesn’t look like a very dynamic system so the shredded look is probably more accurate.
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The mid level warm layer is usually undermodeled in SWFEs so the sleet usually begins sooner than shown 48 hours out. I’ll be thrilled with more than 1-2” at the start and a little is left/not washed away.
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Dec 2005 was a crazy N/S gradient where the south shore was all rain but the north shore had up to 6". This will be gone tomorrow anyway but nice little event.
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Freezing rain/snow mix with this band. Freezing rain because temp is 30. Large flakes breaking through whatever warm layer this is though.
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Mild air taking advantage of the lull to move north. We'll see what this last batch brings. Hopefully it's snow.
