jm1220

Lesson of the day and forever-look at 500mb before any surface chart. Positively tilted strung out piece of garbage with vorticity from Toronto to New Orleans results in garbage at the surface most likely shoved way east regardless of how any surface chart and pretty snow map looks. Maybe it still works out for a couple inches, better than nothing. The Pacific needs to slow down and stop flinging endless shortwaves into the US, and we should count ourselves very lucky we got the snow we did in Dec. If somehow it all works out and it did in Dec, I'll be thrilled but more likely than not this regime won't. It's just reality. Any big opportunity will likely come late this month or in Feb like it has the last few winters and in general.

Looks like strung out crap, not consolidated. Hopefully there’s some light snow from that but that’s what we’ve been getting over and over again the last few winters.

I’m away, glad I’m not missing much.

The Pacific has to slow down and allow a better/more stout PNA ridge without so much interference from 10000 shortwaves. Period. I can't speak for the 1980s or other lean snow periods here but I'm with those who have to see the KU setup within 72hrs to believe it. Maybe these long range ensembles are biased too heavily to the 1990s/2000s climate, someone with better knowledge can explain. We lucked out with the two clipper like systems but normal for us is still a good bit higher. Feb seems like when we can finally make a bigger ticket event happen like in 2021 and 2024, hopefully we can do that this year.

I won’t be in town therefore it’s guaranteed to hit.

Should easily get to 50 for most today. Already mid 40s. My 25 for a low was done in a blink.

26 here, 41-42 on the barrier islands.

Only gets worse from here. Guess we have to wait until Dec to accumulate again.

I remember the 1/12/96 storm started as 5 minutes of snow then all rain, then big warmup and melt. But of course by Feb it came back and even into April we had significant snow events.

That’s the storm that really got me into weather as a kid. It’s still my #1 snowstorm personally. It was just amazing from start to end.

There used to be plenty of storm tracks that were good for that region-Miller A coast huggers mainly like 3/93 and 3/94. Now those have largely gone extinct or they develop too late and blast north and east of them. Other storm types dry up east of the Allegheny Ridge and redevelop for our area like this past clipper, SWFE events are sleetfests or freezing rain, and 95% of lake effect dries up from downslope. So the combination of those create the middle finger snow maps when you look at PA. You still rarely get decent ones like Dec 2020-was good there but nothing like 25 years ago. I’d say at this point it’s more than a temporary shift, it’s a larger more permanent shift away from storm types that favor them. I wouldn’t say it’s temps since they’re still cold enough much of the time.

Another Central PA Middle Finger winter so far. Been a defining feature for 20 years now. Under 10” so far for Williamsport to Harrisburg over to Altoona and State College. In and of itself that’s not terrible but compared to climo way worse than here.

For that reason the 159hr cutter will become the typical lame SWFE some sleet to rain to prolong your suffering. Hope it's better soon. I just dealt with it and many of my friends and coworkers are sick too. Bad flu season.

Curious sometimes to think of what an obs station 150 miles SE of NYC would get every year for snow. Looks like a nice ocean effect band out there right now.

Every winter even the great ones take breaks. But the good December Ninas usually have a Part II in Feb or even Mar. The Part II often involved blocking that slowed down the Pacific and allowed one or two KUs. This winter has not been favorable for KUs yet because it's been northern stream dominated with the same fast Pacific flow, we were just able to capitalize on luck for once with smaller clipper type systems to get us above average for snow with the cold. 2020 had a huge Dec coastal storm, Jan 2018 had the huge coastal storm, Dec 2000 etc. We'll have to see if this can be a winter where we have a good Feb-Mar without having a major Dec coastal storm.

Interesting setup. Probably an inch or two type deal but nice refresher and possibly more with just a little better/sooner redevelopment.

The cold will definitely take a break at some point, but it took a break in every good winter we’ve had. We don’t live in the Yukon.

Yep for sure, that would be a close second.

Yep, 00-01 was probably a tough one there. The big March 2001 blizzard was also huge just a few miles inland and fairly pedestrian in the city if I remember right.

Yep, that storm is king for me of sheer intensity and thunder snow that morning.

Patchy coverage here. My backyard still mostly covered. It's all about to turn rock hard.

Same. @Allsnow is a good contributor. Hope he's well

Only if you let them lol. Don't read them

Was in Long Beach and can say they definitely had as much or more than at my house. Winter wonderland there.

Looks like you’re still in a good spot for snow. It’s really south of the LIE that drops off.