jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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It should, temps will wetbulb down and heavier rates should bring snow down to the surface.
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Long Beach-Sleet is here!
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On CC radar sleet is pinned right around ABE and not advancing yet.
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Dewpoints are in the low 20s so we’ll wetbulb down, but we still have an onshore wind so that will try to raise temps. Then of course we have the strong mid level WAA at 750mb.
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Reading the central PA forum pretty much everyone is starting as then pounding sleet. Hopefully around Allentown we see the cold air make a better stand, otherwise from I-80 on south we probably just start as a pellet fest.
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I do like that it looks like a solid heavy slug of precip in PA. Hopefully it can hold the warm air back a little. And sleet pounding into it will just make it heavier and longer lasting. I don’t really mind mixing with sleet if we have a few inches down first (not what I’m expecting on the south shore but maybe at home on the north shore).
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Well-I’m in Long Beach tonight so I’ll do my old job to warn everyone the sleet’s on its way. The Paul Revere of sleetfests over the years.
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Sleet having a bit of a hard time getting N that far of I-80 in PA which might be a good sign for us. But if the precip is delayed we have less time in any cold air aloft. I’d love to believe the HRRR but it easily might just be on crack.
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Yep, ice storm warning there. I guess their elevated location is closer to the mid level warm nose, so the precip can’t refreeze in time to form sleet.
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I’ll be interested in what happens along I-78/Allentown area, if that snows for a while that’s a good sign for us.
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Sleet line is just N of I-80 in PA. State College will likely get nailed with sleet for a few hours.
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The PV is too far west which makes the trough axis too far west. When that happens we get a cutter or SWFE.
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I’ve been done. Like I said, wake me up when we have something within 72 hours. Couldn’t care less about pretty ensemble maps with 1000”.
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Looking to see how the precip shield evolves. We want it to race east quickly while we can take advantage of cold enough air and a solid wall.
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Makes sense. No confluence to our north or anything to force an earlier transfer. SWFEs will always try to cut north unless something stands in the way. It’s why I never root them on for our latitude.
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Sleet pounded into a few inches of snow can be pretty high impact. Tough as anything to shovel and has staying power. I’m still thinking a sloppy inch or two on the south shore where I’ll be but we’ll see.
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When do you mean? 0.5" of crud in the last event and the event in Jan I had 3.5". I have about 10" for the season which I guess is better than most in NYC/LI but still 50% of average to date. I won't be here at the house tonight actually, I'll be on the south shore where it likely won't be winning whatsoever. Here at the house I'm thinking 3" of combined snow/sleet, hopefully the rain stays away. I'd much rather be in SNE for this or UNY.
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It'll be more than a trace but it could be easily sleet within an hour or so and rain an hour or so after that south of the LIE if something like the NAM happens. Late/shredded precip means warm air will easily overtake much of the area. We need the lift and heavy rates to hold it back.
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Maybe by some miracle the HRRR will be closer to right but I highly doubt it and we saw it suddenly warm up close in to the last "event". South Shore/southern NYC 1-2", N Shore and northern NYC 2-4", Yonkers/Paramus/White Plains and immediate CT coast area 4-6", north of that 6"+. The 1-2" area may have little left by the time storm's over because rain will wash it away. N Shore may just go to sleet and avoid rain. It hasn't really evolved yet but we need the extended heavy snow shield to hold the warm air back, or it will be the lower end of those ranges.
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SWFEs in general are very predictable for this area. They're a reason the snow averages are what they are in the Northeast. It's also a Nina winter, so the SWFEs were bound to start up sooner or later. I'll be in Long Beach tomorrow-hopefully something is still left on the ground after the change to rain. At least at home the sleet will probably stick around for a while after and maybe an hour or two of decent snow to start. N of the city gets their 6-8".
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Areas N of the city aren't really in doubt and haven't been in 2-3 days. It'll be a significant snow event N of the Tappan Zee, every model shows that.
