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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Drenching here. Pools forming in the snowpack in my backyard.
  2. jm1220
    If we still have boiling SSTs east of Japan going into next winter, the northern stream Pacific jet will likely be supercharged again and lead to much the same outcome. The colder winter this year gave us a fighting chance for the minor snow events we have but when you have 100 shortwaves sprayed all over the country all destructively interfering and bolting east, this is the outcome we get. No one should be surprised which thankfully it seems like people are accepting. Bring on spring.
  3. jm1220
    Abso-freaking-lutely. Get us out of this nightmare.
  4. jm1220
    Had one last year. Other than a wintry 10 day period in Feb, as we know it just resulted in endless deluges because the continent was flooded in warm air and we had the charged STJ.
  5. jm1220
    Well since 2018-19 which is 6 winters now, there's been one above average (20-21). Pretty safe to say we've entered a new regime where the Pacific jet destroys almost every setup we have for major storms, and global warming is in the dealer in the background loading the dice. Until this Nina-like background state with the rampaging Pacific jet changes, we'll be stuck in the same place.
  6. jm1220
    I have almost 19” when my winter average is about 35”. It’s been a wintry month so I give it credit for that and the frequent cold but I can’t go higher than a C/C- when I’m at half my season snow average and there’s been so much potential flushed down the toilet. A quieter Pacific like we used to have and this would be a 50” winter.
  7. jm1220
    What do you mean jogging? It’s leaving Usain Bolt in the dust on its way east. I’d focus on ensembles for now and there’s still time for it to come back west but the rampaging Pacific jet has been the dominant theme this winter and ruined setup after setup. No one should be surprised if this ends up the same wasted potential.
  8. jm1220
    Seriously, if SE VA and Delmarva end with significantly more snow than NYC and get crushed yet again when we get cirrus or another BS 1-3” fringe, spring needs to get here asap.
  9. jm1220
    Models have also been upgraded several times since 2010. Any phasing setup is very complex to begin with but this is also a very different setup than we had in Dec 2010.
  10. jm1220
    I’d give it another 24 hours or so, the trend might reverse. If by 0z Mon or so we still see the trend toward it getting booted, I’d throw in the towel. But we all know the tendency and trends with every storm this winter and what happened in January, so no one should be surprised if this one fails too.
  11. jm1220
    18.6” on the season here. That’ll likely be it for this one. Looks like sleet already into Nassau on dual pol.
  12. jm1220
    1.5” here, light snow. Had some good rates then radar turned to shredded crap. Sleet line is marching along because we lost the lift/good rates so we might be about done accumulating. Throw this one in the pile of the disappointment SWFEs.
  13. jm1220
    Light-mod snow, good coating on all colder surfaces.
  14. jm1220
    That kicker shortwave out west has to weaken or slow down so our storm has room to amplify before getting booted east. But it's another symptom of the fast chaotic Pacific jet that's ruined chance after chance. We have time like you said for changes though.
  15. jm1220
    Flurries here.
  16. jm1220
    Glad that every model shows a major storm of some type, although the track is still way early to be determined b/c of the chaotic fast pattern and possibility for kicker/confluence shortwaves to either crush it south and/or kick it east. DC/Baltimore is probably the most favored area with lesser chances headed NE. We’re still in the game for sure but odds are best to our SW.
  17. jm1220
    We're going to have a few hours to warm up before the snow gets here. Dews are in the upper teens so we will wetbulb down a little, but we'll need a heavy steady snow shield to keep it snowing at a rate that will accumulate and keep the mid level warmth at bay. Models almost across the board have gotten warmer/lamer down here in the last 24 hours, so they're not impressed. They could be wrong but not likely. Take 1-2" and call that a win, then see it get soaked away. The winds look like the big story on the coast, maybe 60mph gusts coming.
  18. jm1220
    The overall flow as the precip is arriving is from the SW and the low redevelops eventually, just N of us. I'm not sure of what's "officially" considered a SWFE, it's precip moving NE and overrunning colder air at the surface.
  19. jm1220
    Maybe an inch or two here as a tease before huge torch and rain that washes everything away. Looks like this will be among the 90% of SWFEs that end up lame disappointments.
  20. jm1220
    Exactly. Too early to really get excited given the chaotic pattern. The pieces are there for this to come together and produce, we’ve seen others go poof. In 48 hours we can start diving in I think.
  21. jm1220
    Little by little
  22. jm1220
    It’s the NAM I’m glad it’s showing the front ender like the other models.
  23. jm1220
    The initial overrunning that generates our snow shoots over us and hits New England on that run. Hopefully it’s wrong.
  24. jm1220
    Somewhat hopeful for 2-4” on the north shore. Would be nice to get to 20” on the season which happens if 3” falls. We were able to lock in full snow coverage last night with some refrozen melt on top so maybe outside chance some can survive.
  25. jm1220
    Every storm setup is ruined by some random shortwave or destructive interference of some kind. A cold winter like this 10 years ago should have all of us over 40” if not 50” but we’re scraping to 15” for the most part around the city. Ridges/troughs get knocked down or we have confluence in the wrong spot etc because of the Pacific jet spraying random crap at us, so nothing really has room to itself to amplify, or it gets suppressed/booted. Or when the SE ridge does take over again (favored in Nina winters) we get cutters like this one upcoming or SWFEs. We’ll see what happens with this storm coming up around 2/20, looks like the best chance we’ve had all winter, but it can be easily ruined by the factors that have been all winter and for the most part over the past 4-5 winters. Long term, the Pacific jet has to slow down.
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