jm1220

Maybe 0.1” this AM.

Looking like this is a delayed not denied season that goes boom when the overall environmental conditions are ripe.

No question they’re in huge trouble if these tracks into Clearwater pan out. Even with the storm weakening some or even significantly the flooding will be horrendous. The surge doesn’t decrease as fast as the winds can and it’s also partly due to the storm’s overall size which will be expanding. Hopefully people are getting out of anyplace near sea level.

After Helene apparently sea birds were found in GA that were stuck in the eye. Happens pretty often with these stronger landfalling hurricanes where the birds can’t escape.

Yep, I’ve seen that time and again in some of our stronger Nor’easters up here and with storms like Irene 2011 where we gusted to 70 or so and Sandy 2012 where we had frequent 85-90 mph gusts. The amount of rain also matters as it loosens the soil.

And even if the center goes S of Tampa, as we all know from Ian it’s still very heavily populated real estate all the way to Marco Island. Would still be devastating for perhaps hundreds of thousands and many who are still rebuilding post-Ian. The east coast of FL might also be impacted pretty bad-Irma was bad for the whole peninsula even though it tracked into the Gulf and weakened significantly from peak.

Definitely a nail biter for Tampa/St Pete, 30 mile or so difference between possibly historic surge or the bay getting pushed out again. Yikes. The weakening trend would help but if it really ramps up beforehand the surge impact would be largely baked in like with Katrina.

That was a really nice one (1/4/2018), too bad it couldn’t slow down. It was hauling.

I think it’ll happen within 10 years that there’s a truly crippling historic snowstorm or series of snowstorms that happen here when we can get the pieces to finally fit together-stuck pattern, warm Atlantic SSTs and finally enough cold. By that I mean widespread 30”+, maybe 36”. NYC was 40 miles from it happening in Feb 2013, close in Jan 2015 and 2022, close in early Feb 2010 etc. It did happen in Mar 1888 and and to a lesser extent 2/26/2010 with the retrograding bomb (I know a bad memory for most of New England). I would take that in a second even if the rest of winter had zilch.

Can’t believe I’m saying it but in a way it’s good we had the August deluge (for LI) or else we’d be starting to look at a significant drought. From record El Niño wet winter to this now.

Yep, no one’s perfect. To me it just keeps being humbling how it seems so many assumptions have been turned on their heads over the last 5-6 years or so. I agree that it’s been our turn for a while for a significant regression back to the longer term mean for NYC which is about 25”/winter. There’s no way we can expect constant 40”/season bonanzas. The bonanzas bumped Central Park up to 30” average for 1991-2020 and my backyard east of the city to high 30s but we’re due for it to decrease. Hopefully in 10 years we’re not still decreasing.

He’s an outstanding contributor here and I’m personally much more knowledgeable for all the data and research he’s posted. Can’t be said enough. When the time comes for him to be bullish again he will be lol.

I don’t enjoy either what he posts in terms of the outcome or Snowman but where have they been wrong? I’d rather take the bad accurate news than get JB’d for the season to ultimately fail. And it was in the NYC forum exclusively I think but Bluewave was plenty bullish before 2018 when this crap pattern really got underway and pointed out how great things have been for NYC/LI up to then. It’s unpleasant honesty but it is what it is.

Sooner or later the warming climate will win out against the tendency for bigger storms. Hopefully the constant background Nina and -PDO state can reverse soon and we get back into a favorable pattern. We see how cold the upper Plains and NW can still get, so it’s still around but it can’t get here in a sustained way. But that “balance line” where warmer climate overcomes the bigger storms tendency is creeping north and probably already went north of DC which is in a long term decline (although that might also be due to fewer Miller A type storms and more big offshore Miller B storms that can nail our area).

There should be some kind of recategorization of hurricanes to take into account potential for flooding. I remember in Sandy people downplaying it before hitting because “it won’t even be a hurricane” (which has since been addressed) and it only being officially a Cat 1 despite the gigantic size and pressure in the low 940s. The wind caused significant damage but the devastation and vast majority of deaths was also because of water. Since floods cause the most deaths, maybe the category should be more based on the potential for flooding.

I’m pessimistic myself for anyone south of I-90/I-84 until that boiling SST blob east of Japan goes away and we stop getting the constant MJO 4-6 feedback loop. That will keep the same general conditions going. We had a strong Nino and about all that did was add a lot more moisture to the Nina general pattern. One of the constant storms managed to be snow IMBY in Feb, otherwise it was a near or record wet winter. Otherwise the Pacific jet kept raging and everyone was warm not just the East. We need some mechanism to encourage +PNA in the right location again and mute the SE Ridge. Maybe the long term AMO declining can help on the Atlantic side. But it also doesn’t do any good to have Greenland blocks that link up to an insanely amped SE ridge. Hopefully 22-23 was an outlier anomaly but the same general crap pattern remains that favors the West/N Plains/Lakes/N New England. Hopefully it’s something that can reverse soon, doesn’t at all look like it’ll be this upcoming winter.

Having a city of 100K cut off from the outside world and devastated makes that the case for sure, not to mention the other towns/cities impacted all throughout the region. My heart goes out to all those people and their families. It’ll be a very long and difficult road ahead.

Maybe the record strong if it happens would be the one decent indicator I see for winter, since Bluewave showed how stronger 4-6 in Oct has preceded the better La Niña winter outcomes further south in the East in the last decade. I see nothing else promising-our ACE card looks like it’ll be a cackling Joker, another huge ridge popping east of Japan where we want something, anything to reduce those boiling SSTs, weak central based Nina, on and on. Maybe we can get something to reduce the massive SE ridge but if the PNA is that badly negative it’ll reinforce the big SE ridge.

And another huge ridge building right where we don’t want it. Sigh

Actually a decent soaking in SW Nassau as well, up to 0.25” per radar.

Not even sure how you would get there. Fly to Anchorage then another plane? Soon it’ll also be dark there 24-7, not interested.

The interaction with that upper low made it a lot worse by drawing moisture north in the upslope direction for the hard hit areas in the Carolinas, well before Helene made landfall. That’s what caused the PRE that primed everything. It also probably helped ventilate Helene and assisted strengthening. As it moved N more quickly the shear became a non issue.

Some of the pictures I’m seeing particularly from Madeira Beach look devastating, similar to parts of LI/NYC after Sandy with the torn up docks, displaced cars and large debris everywhere. That’s what I remember seeing the day after that storm. And from what you and others are saying a lot of people there decided to ride it out.

I mean if we could actually have a standalone Greenland block that doesn't become part of the insane/steroidal SE Ridge, that would be a good thing for many. It was jaw dropping that "winter" how that happened multiple times. It was just one horrible feedback mechanism after another that kept screwing us. But as is the case in most Ninas, further north in New England was perfectly fine and even very snowy. The north cutting storms eventually hit cold enough air somewhere in upstate NY and New England and start dumping. In 07-08 that gradient was S of I-90, 22-23 season much further north because of that SE ridge.

Typical ESE bent confluence look on radar with the rain stopping dead north of Trenton.