jm1220

As someone who lived in Long Beach for it and lost almost everything, I can relate. The super high tide from the full moon made it worse along with the timing, so the water level was about 2’ higher along with the 8’ surge making for a 10’ storm tide. My house at the time is about equal to hooralph’s in laws elevation and there was about 3’ of water in the house. It’s an absolute miracle no one in Long Beach died knowing how many refused to evacuate. So yeah, this one will be much more serious for the wrong people who refuse to leave.

Maybe moving more NE again vs ENE. Critical to see how NE it goes and soon for Tampa Bay impact.

Really nasty for the Space Coast. Would cause lots of power outages obviously and minor property damage. Surge as well north of the track.

There’s just a basic mental tendency to want to remain in your supposed safe place-home whenever something is threatening. It’s the opposite of what you should do in this situation but people associate it with safety. People also associated toilet paper with safety during Covid, it’s totally irrational but it’s undeniable. Many people also don’t trust authority figures or the government due to misinformation these days, but I’ll avoid diving further into that rabbit hole.

Sad. And if they get this wrong and it’s 10+ feet, they won’t have time or the means to leave since emergency crews likely won’t be able to get to them. With the storm coming in perpendicular the water will also likely be rising very fast.

They have-it went to 165mph from 145.

If he’s being told to get out he really should get out.

Any place less than 10 feet above sea level and maybe even higher will be absolutely devastated south of the path of the eye in the max surge zone. It’s impacting at a perpendicular angle to the coast which also makes the surge worse. There will probably be new islands altogether since some will have new inlets. Also the surge height is WITHOUT waves on top. It’s the water height above the normal water height.

Integrated Kinetic Energy.

It's essentially a measure of the hurricane's overall power which is a factor of both its wind speed/central pressure and overall size. So its IKE can still go up as the minimum central pressure does. The surge is influenced by both factors size and wind speed/min central pressure as well, so even if Milton weakens in terms of wind/pressure but expands in size, the IKE can go up and the surge may be worse since more water is being moved overall. If it gets funneled into a bay or inlets it's made even worse.

Thanks and good luck on your search. For MBY I’d say 17-18 was the best of the bunch, close with 10-11 which was an awesome NYC winter but generally serviceable other than 22-23 which was obviously a disaster. That blend would be maybe 25-30” for the winter here, slightly below average but would gladly take at this point. Hope we get the poleward Aleutian ridging which can force the downstream cold/PV further south. Whatever can disrupt the Pacific jet is more than welcome.

I think it’s too early to say if the storm will be weakening as it comes onshore. As we’ve seen the dry air/shear impacts are hard to predict. We’ve seen them disrupt the hurricanes more than expected but it’s the same the other way around especially since on its way in it’ll be moving over jet fuel SSTs. People might be hearing “it’s supposed to weaken” and deciding to stay which would be a BIG mistake.

Don’t want to drag this off topic but the construction type also only really helps with wind. A massive surge will damage any type of property overcome from the water. The only way in the future any of these properties might be insured is if they’re on stilts.

Eye looks to really be clearing out. I’d think it’s pretty likely it makes it to Cat 5 again.

Pityflakes speaks for everyone including the hurricane experts?

Longboat Key would be really bad for Sarasota, maybe as far south as Charlotte Harbor/Punta Gorda with surge.

Just about anywhere north of Marco Island is very heavily developed and in really bad places for surge. Bradenton/Sarasota by itself is over 100K people.

I see posts mentioning the presentation is getting better again and it’s borderline Cat 5.

Who’s “everyone” saying “weakening badly” and who’s definitely saying it makes landfall S of Tampa, an area still populated with hundreds of thousands of people?

The surge doesn’t diminish as fast as the winds do. See LA/MS from Katrina. It kept its huge surge even though it degraded significantly into a halfacane.

You have to also remove the debris in 24 hours from Helene so it doesn’t become missiles as well as batten down for this one. Can’t even imagine all that has to go into getting ready.

If Milton ends up hitting the same places Ian did, wonder how many will decide to just leave instead of rebuild again. Some of those towns got flooded in Helene too. I’d imagine it would be impossible to get any hurricane/flood insurance. And without massive sea walls I have no idea what you do about surge flooding especially with rising sea levels and people developing the most surge prone land.

Yep, it would still be hundreds of thousands of people facing devastating impacts from a south of Tampa landfall. And those people live right in the worst surge prone areas on barrier islands or on bays. The only real “good” outcome would be a huge N or S trend taking it away from those populated areas which isn’t likely.

The wave setup well ahead of the eye also factors in. I remember the water levels being very high well ahead of Sandy even though winds were offshore right until they suddenly shifted onshore as it hit NJ. Obviously this one’s size won’t be as big but I’m sure water will start pushing in well ahead of the main impacts.

Possibly down to 40 here late week, not quite cold enough for frost but close. Can’t totally rule it out. The pine barrens likely get there.