jm1220

One dividing line between the good Nina winters here and the bad ones is whether we can get a snow event in December. In Dec 2020 NYC had a 10” snowstorm, in 2010 there was the Boxing Day blizzard, 2017-18 just missed December but had the big 1/4/18 storm. 2000-01 had the Millennium 12”+ storm and ended up above average with more snow in Feb. 3/5/01 would’ve annihilated us with some better luck. In 17-18 and 20-21 as well we then had a Part 2 later in the winter with more snow to get us over average. 10-11 was of course a blitz of many storms until end of January. I rate 21-22 as a lousier one for NYC even though the late Jan storm could’ve been a crusher back to NYC with a tiny shift to a consolidated coastal storm vs the multiple low mess it ended up as. The lousy Nina winters flop in Dec and tend to stay that way. 07-08 set the tone early with the crap sleet pellet to rain SWFEs, Dec 2022 flopped as we all know, 1998-99 had nothing in Dec and was a below average snow winter etc.

That was amazing, never saw that in my life. For me it looked like the sky was purple looking to the north.

Wow, I can see it! Awesome!

I’m sure he’ll monetize it somehow and upgrade his boat.

A lot has to do with size as you said, since larger size means more water moving. More intensity obviously means more water moving as well, and the higher the intensity plus size means obviously a higher surge. The track of the storm matters, since a storm heading perpendicular into a shore will tend to maximize surge vs one tracking near parallel. But then you have to factor in local effects like where bays, inlets and harbors funnel water in and the slope of the shelf. There's a reason Tampa Bay, NY Harbor and Lake Pontchartrain are considered huge risk surge areas, because they are great at funneling the water in from a surge and maximizing it. Sandy was a high end Cat 1 but gigantic in size and about 10mb lower in pressure at landfall than Milton, which meant a huge amount of water moved, into a very bad area for surge due to the upside down L-shaped NY Harbor, lots of bays and inlets to funnel the water and a long sloping shelf. Sandy also tracked in a way that drove the surge NW directly into the harbor. Part of the impact is just the luck of what tide the surge hits during. Sandy's peak surge was during a full moon high tide which in my town added 4-5 feet on top to what it would've been at low tide (storm tide was 10 feet roughly where I lived then and even higher in places in NYC and certain spots in NJ around funnel shaped inlets). You pointed out Charley, and Andrew 1992 wasn't really known for surge other than a small part of Miami due to its size primarily and factors specific to SE FL. The E coast of FL isn't as susceptible to surge because the shelf is very close to shore and you generally don't have all these bays and inlets to funnel the water in. But of course any low lying location is susceptible from the right storm at the wrong time. Generally the IKE number as bdgwx posts often is a good indicator of the surge potential with the storm since it combines wind speed with overall storm size. Here's a good article explaining the different factors. Storm Surge Overview (noaa.gov)

It can definitely snow and stick here in late March even into April. 2018 the best/latest example.

Manasota Key and Punta Gorda looked pretty messed up from footage I saw so far. Lots of debris and boats tossed around. Doesn’t look catastrophic like after Ian but like what 10-12 feet of surge would probably cause. In Ian wasn’t the max surge 15 feet?

I’m sure it was devastating where the high surge hit and we’ll see that soon unfortunately. “In my experience” I’ve seen around that level of surge and how devastating that is. And it’s not downtown Tampa but still very populated.

IKE is a good measure for how serious the surge might be over a wide area since it takes into the account the entire area affected by strong winds, which is what moves more or less water. As IKE increases usually more water is being moved even if the max sustained winds might be decreasing. Larger storms move much more water, which then gets funneled into bays and harbors. Maybe Milton didn’t have time to take advantage of a larger size area of strong winds to build a surge but we’ll find out soon.

Was fortunate for TB that it slowed down and took the right turn when it did, was nerve wracking for a couple hours when it looked to be jogging N again. Will still be multiple billions of dollars in damage there from all the rain flooding plus wind/power damage. Still a very impactful event there.

It’s always a guessing game and speculation until we see the footage and hear the stories. There are lots of local effects with the surge also such as in these smaller inlets and canals that the water gets funneled into. It’s very common where I live in any type of coastal storm much less the bigger ones.

TN is another place New Yorkers are flocking to these days lol.

Read an article yesterday that home prices are reversing there in part because it’s way harder to get insurance much less anything affordable. Premiums have doubled or more in the last few years especially after Ian and people don’t want to take the risk. I know around here the Carolinas are now the place to flock to not FL.

If that’s the case they’re quite lucky.

We haven't heard from further south-Charlotte Harbor area. If anyone got pounded with surge I'd expect it down there.

Surge at Ft Myers over 5ft and into major flood, still rising.

With the ET transition that's evident there's probably some energy being brought in from the jet it's interacting with. With Sandy I also remember a pronounced sting jet.

That whole I-4 corridor will get raked and be flooded/out of power.

May have been Ida. That was really bad rain wise for my area, eastern PA and NJ, and S NJ I remember there being a tornado outbreak south of the track.

And it appears there were multiple EF2 or 3 wedge type tornadoes. Also extremely rare in hurricanes.

These winds are felt offshore where there is no friction. Maybe a very small area right on the beach did.

Models seem to have it mainly along I-4 so Orlando will likely get blasted too, hopefully not as bad as Tampa. It'll be along and north of wherever the quasi-frontal boundary sets up that focuses and dumps out the moist southerly feed east of the center.

So that’s a surge now of 6ft there and still rising fast (8ft water level minus 2ft normal). Punta Gorda further north must be even worse and will get worse as more water funnels into the harbor. The tide is also coming back in.

8-9” now in Tampa proper and absolutely pouring in that N eyewall area. Wonder if we see evidence of the sting jet soon down near the Charlotte Harbor area.