jm1220
-
Posts
24,234 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by jm1220
-
In any Nina I’d be excited if I lived in the Great Lakes. Doesn’t score there 100% of the time but odds are certainly better given the Lake cutter storm tracks.
-
Unbelievable that CT/LI are abnormally dry and on the way to drought when we had such a wet summer and the massive Aug deluge in parts of Suffolk.
-
Good, lots more typhoons there. Keep sending them east of Japan to cool down that boiling water and maybe salvage a PDO not in horrendously negative territory.
-
SE FL has been incredibly lucky and is overdue unfortunately.
-
Irma was also supposed to make its right turn sooner and hug the coast right up to Cape Canaveral. If it didn’t run into Cuba and made that right turn sooner it would’ve easily been the most destructive hurricane in US history.
-
Guess there was too much of a breeze to radiate more. Westhampton got down to 28 where it calmed down for a few hours.
-
It’ll ramp up right in time for climo to get cold enough for it to snow.
-
The damage in Punta Gorda with boats tossed around town and the severe structural damage on the barrier islands looks like it was a serious surge, 10’ or higher like you said. There was a gauge in Sarasota that apparently recorded 10 foot surge, and the worst surge may have been south of there in the harbors/inlets that channel in the water.
-
Thankfully the summer IMBY was wet enough but not excessively like just east of here. Not a drop yesterday, was a very nice day. But it’s really needed. Much of the country is developing drought conditions since there aren’t any large scale storms around outside the tropics.
-
It’s very likely fish food this time of year. If one trough misses it, there’s probably multiple chances of one picking it up.
-
2/22/08 was just about the one front ended snow event that did work out for NYC. I think that was half of the season’s snow. The Dec one that clobbered SNE and rained in NYC set the tone for that whole godawful winter. Dec sets the tone for NYC almost every winter especially Nina’s.
-
07-08 was a series of lake cutter storms with a high over Quebec/Canada that locked enough cold in for New England to have big front end snow or have the low redevelop south enough to keep them snow. NYC was too far south and either rained in all of them or had brief sleet to rain, over and over again. I lived in PA at the time and had more sleet than I've ever seen.
-
Nina in general is significantly better the further north you go. I'd rather claw my eyes out than go through another 07-08. El Nino is better overall I'd say from I-80 and south.
-
The days after a disaster like this are some of the scariest and most uncertain in people’s lives and it’s…. despicable that con artists online and in the media out to monetize it somehow and scumbag politicians like MTG and other “conservatives” use it to help themselves politically (and of course drive donations and media appearances for themselves). It’s a feedback loop grift between social media for attention, influencers who want views, media that want ad dollars and ratings, and “conservative” politicians who want all of the above and votes. I can’t imagine what kind of a lowlife scumbag you have to be to threaten FEMA aid workers or meteorologists who are trying to help people through times like these.
- 536 replies
-
- 11
-
-
-
-
It’s at the point in some of that area from Ft Myers north to near Sarasota where you have to ask whether it’s worth it to rebuild. 5 hurricane hits either direct or close enough for significant damage in the last 3 years-Ian, Idalia, Debby, Helene and now Milton. I have no idea how many hoops you’ll have to jump through or deep your wallet has to be to get flood/hurricane insurance there soon. You can build better and more resilient for wind, that doesn’t help with water unless your home is high enough above sea level or you spend probably tens of billions on mitigation like seawalls, which climate change will render moot anyway because of rising sea levels.
-
N of Tampa wasn’t taken out of the probability cone until about 24 hours before landfall. In a large metro people need to prepare 48-72 hours in advance. We saw the late shifts with Helene and numerous other storms in the last 5 years or so.
-
It was more likely than not to lose strength, sure. Models highlighted the shear and dry air in the eastern Gulf for a few days. But it was also moving over 85+ degree water, and small changes to the jet interaction, steering, dry air etc could’ve made for a much different outcome. Michael in 2018 wasn’t expected to come in as a Cat 5, if I remember right it was supposed to weaken or be a Cat 2, maybe Cat 3. The center of the cone was south of Tampa for a couple days but a couple of northerly wobbles over 48hrs would’ve brought it into Tampa or north. And you have to warn a major metro like Tampa well ahead of time, we all saw the packed highways and stations out of gas. What natural barriers or dunes there were for protection were also lost in Helene. Sure media especially national oversensationalizes all the time, but I totally understood the need to prepare and evacuate for the areas that did. Much better than Clearwater for example not preparing and the wobbles N plus less shear and less weakening happen and they’re now staring down a borderline Cat 5. That was in the window of possibility, fairly unlikely but could’ve caused a massive number of casualties from lack of preparation. Imagine the outcry then?
-
There was clearly no need for people on Treasure Island let’s say to prepare for the worst and evacuate. They should’ve just stayed home. We’ve never seen situations in the past where the official track could be off by 30 miles or the intensity forecast is off for any of a multitude of reasons. It was obvious 48 hours out that they and Tampa would be fine and the media/emergency officials were overhyping!!!
-
There was no possibility that the predictions for weakening before landfall would be wrong and instead it would’ve come in as a strong Cat 4 let’s say? It was a definite that the storm would weaken? And 120mph Cat 3 storms aren’t dangerous? Or there wouldn’t be a SLIGHT deviation in the track to bring it NW of Tampa instead? All this was just known days ahead of time and I guess there was no need for people around Tampa to prepare or evacuate. It’s such an inconvenience after all right? I’m just glad some here don’t work in emergency preparedness.
-
There was absolutely 100% a need to prepare for the worst case scenario because a tiny change in track would’ve brought the eye into or N of Tampa Bay, and predicting the wind speeds is hard to say the least. It hit Cat 5 twice. It wasn’t overhyping or sensationalizing at all to say it could’ve been a worst case scenario. And the places it did hit directly are still heavily populated. Tampa/St Pete also had widespread flooding and wind/power damage. St Pete had its heaviest rain in an event ever.
-
In Port St Lucie, Fort Pierce, Wellington, Punta Gorda, Siesta Key etc people should just relax because “FL did just fine”? What a load off their shoulders!
-
Down to 40 here, looks like a couple 39s nearby. I’m slightly elevated just E of Rt 110 so I don’t radiate quite as well as lower elevations.
-
I can see it again-purple glow looking north.
-
Even down here and in NYC the purple glow was quite noticeable. Never saw that in my life. Hopefully another coming soon!
-
It was brief, for me it lasted a few minutes. With my luck it’ll come back when I’m asleep.
