jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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33 here.
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Have to watch that SE ridge position and steepness. We live in a world now where if the NAO block is too south based it can link up with the SE ridge.
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Hopefully we officially get 19.3 flakes this winter.
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The Pacific changing back to a less hostile state should be enough to ramp the averages back up, not to the high bonanza period of the 2010s but we should be able to cash in once in a while with offshore coastal lows and cold enough air. The West certainly can, so we should too. The overall pattern is just way too hostile and has to change. But we’re just stuck with this garbage N PAC SST anomaly state blasting us with puke.
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Yep, I don’t see any savior coming like a massive NAO block in 20-21 to salvage a decent season. I think we’re largely screwed other than when we can get a lucky couple day period here and there and it can snow. The Pacific as you said is as hostile as can be. That boiling water east of Japan supercharges the Pacific jet and blowtorches the whole continent.
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Cooler toward the end of November?!! I damn sure hope so! Expect zilch this winter and be thrilled when something can happen.
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If Eastern folks means south of the NY/PA border to HFD-PVD line I totally agree. South of there is roughly where SWFE events are mostly lousy sleet to cold rain events and don’t meaningfully add to seasonal snow totals. Some exceptions happen like 2/22/08 but mostly are just garbage. These come all the time in Nina’s and especially in this new regime. NNE can really rack up snow from these since they are closer to any cold air source. Down here I have zero optimism, I don’t see any wild card like 20-21 coming to save us. At least the rain is hopefully warmer and we won’t have a useless Christmas bomb with useless cold like 2022. I’m sure the Adirondacks to ME will be just fine and they do best in this horrendous disaster regime. The Pacific has to meaningfully change before our outcomes will.
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Will probably be another great winter for the West. Another defining factor the last few winters at least and no indication that’s changing.
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I’m not concerned about a long term drought here. Sooner or later the Nina cutter train will start up and precip wise we’ll catch up.
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If there’s one OK winter period IMBY where it can snow more than a few inches I’d take that as a win. Otherwise the blinds are slammed shut. Honestly this warm weather is fine by me, if it won’t snow I hate useless cold. We do need the rain but sooner or later I’m sure the Nina cutters train will start up.
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Yep, winds calm. Some places a little lower in elevation than me are in the 30s already.
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Northerly winds can get it done in a storm here since the air would come from inland New England. When we have any easterly component off the water it typically kills it unless somehow we have a cold enough preceding airmass. Water is too warm until late in the month. For the Boston area and SE New England same problem.
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If we get past 50% of normal snow this winter I’d call that a win. For me that’s about 15-16”. As we all know an endlessly raging Pacific jet means shutouts here. I wouldn’t mind warm and dry as much. If it won’t snow I’d rather it stay warm. The worst are the teases that get yanked away last minute.
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Drought monitor map looking crazier this AM with much of the middle of the country in a drought now, some areas severe drought. Central/S NJ in severe drought. Our wet summer saved us here so far and growing season will be over soon.
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16-17 wasn’t bad here, was best NYC on NE which is typical for these fast flow Nina years. Late Jan and Feb had same good snow events. The 3-14-17 event going 75 miles further SE would’ve made it a great season vs not bad.
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When Alaska’s colder than average, the East roasts. That’s a pretty good rule to follow.
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Ugh, 14 straight sleepless nights now. Thanks for posting that.
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Within 90 minutes it went from needing a jacket at 8am to able to wear shorts by 9:30. Crazy for LI which is surrounded by water.
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I’m hoping for something half decent in December, I can’t think of a Nina that was any way decent for NYC without a Dec snow event. I count 1/4/18 as within that early winter window that returned with a vengeance in March. NYC had the Dec 2020 snow event then the great stretch in early Feb.
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I just want one factor to be in our favor (where you live is a different story) for something outside of the bottom gutter of a winter.
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It’s like further south and in CA when the jet stream lifts north of them after the winter. And we have little moisture in the air for pop up storms like they have in the SE. Beautiful days but lawns and grass everywhere brown and crisped. Crazy after what the summer was like.
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Are there verification scores for the Euro AI? I would think/hope it’s catching onto all these situations where the ridge in the East is stronger than forecast 7 days out or more.
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I-90 is a pretty good marker of where El Niño becomes better south of there vs La Niña north of there. Maybe in the Lakes area a little south of I-90 into northern/central IL, IN, OH, and around here maybe the NY/PA border. Where I live we’ve had our share of good Nina winters but we need help from some other factor like a big west based -NAO to force storms underneath us. Otherwise they will all try to cut way too far west. And the snow belts get a second dose of fun in the NW flow behind the cutters.
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And it’ll go on for days and days and days.
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Endless summer to endless fall.
