jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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For the next storm for Thanksgiving if we get it it looks to be cold rain for the coast or maybe R/S mix. A more amped system would mean more warm air brought in and track inland, less amped means less precip and marginal airmass. There’s maybe a very tiny Goldilocks zone near the city and coast for a workable storm but very likely not. Inland has a better opportunity with a more amped system. Hopefully in Dec the cold pattern can take hold, over the last 10 years we haven’t gotten out of a cold pattern like this without a widespread winter storm. It can definitely snow in early Dec to the coast in the right setup.
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Highest rain total for Suffolk County is 2.88” so far. It was pouring last night and radar estimated over 4” in NW Suffolk. Wonder if bright banding made it seem heavier? And yes, if it was 1/21 this would’ve been a widespread 24”+ snow event.
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Quite the drencher up here. Radar estimates over 4” just to my north. Here about 3.5”.
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Pouring. Up to about 2.5". 3" should be a lock.
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Up to about 1.75”. Maybe we’ll push 3” for the event. Rain looks to be pivoting around for a while.
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New HRRR has snow on the N Shore, SW CT and Westchester. Here I doubt anything would accumulate but it’s a dynamic enough setup that there could be a burst at some point.
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Mt Pocono down to 32 with this more intense snow coming in. Should be a fun night there.
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I have about 1.1” now, hopefully another 0.9+ to make it over 2”.
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The beginnings of this deformation axis are starting now over NJ and will expand NE over time. 18z HRRR has 1-2” more precip especially I-80 and N. It could be quite heavy for a while especially northern areas.
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If this is the place in Worcester, I was there for dinner/drinks after a work event about a month ago (once in a while I travel to Marlborough). Fun spot!
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Maybe flakes in the air. Have to remember too that some of this precip might dry out as it comes in since it’s coming from a downslope direction.
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It’ll be a stormy pattern which should relieve the drought, that’s about all we can take away at this point. Hopefully the western ridge and Aleutian ridge pointed near the pole work out, that would at least supply cold air.
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After the main slug of rain overnight here I’d just expect unsettled showers around NYC, some of that hopefully will be snow showers. Agreed about the NW downslope killing off a lot of the deformation axis precip. Tomorrow will be a nasty raw day.
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I’d be thrilled if there is a burst of flurries/light snow at the end here or during heavier showers under the ULL. Looks very dynamic so it could happen, but if you’re expecting significant accums and living in a valley you’ll likely be disappointed. Over 1000’ though will probably get over 6” and locally 10”. That deformation band SW of the low center will go to town for a while. Best potential area looks to be around Mt Pocono.
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It won’t be 10-1, probably more like 7-1 ratio. But a very nice event in higher elevations regardless.
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I wish the LI Sound wasn’t still a billion degrees. Can someone send some dump trucks full of ice there?
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That deformation axis under the ULL looks like the real deal. Might be a good blue bomb snow for the Catskills, even Orange County. Of course whatever rain we can get is more than welcome. Hopefully a sign of stormier times ahead.
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There should be a juiced deformation axis somewhere that gets 2-3”+ where it pivots around. In higher elevations that is probably snow. Desperately needed for sure.
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Maybe one positive for the winter would be if we can get that Aleutian ridge as close to the pole as possible.
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Warmer up here. Too much wind from the Sound.
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If we get shut out in December, it will be an awful winter. Always happens that way. We need some kind of Part 1 in any snowy Nina winter here, then usually we get a Part 2 that’s snowier in Feb/March. Doesn’t have to be much in December, one warning type storm will do but there has to be something.
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Wow, predicting normal snow around 30” for NYC. I’ll gladly eat my socks if that happens.
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The source region for these "cold" shots is still Pacific origin, since we can't get a sustained ridge in the West to build up then deliver cold from Canada. It's somewhat modified Pacific air. Any attempt at a ridge gets blasted away by the raging Pacific jet developed from the boiling SSTs east of Japan. Rinse (or not since we're all in a drought aided by said pattern) repeat.
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Models over the last 24 hours have been getting less impressed, HRRR now has most of us at about 0.2”. Might end up being just a lot of virga with most of us just having the ground wet for a couple hours.
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Maybe we'll be rain weenies this winter for a random half inch that'll come by.
