jm1220

With the ridge axis off the west coast we risk more cutters/SWFE to dry windy cold. We want it further east.

The IVT feature is the only one I’m really concerned about, the coastal low snow is 100+ miles away. And it’s hard to pin down and even the NAM doesn’t show being particularly heavy. Maybe someone lucky ends up with 2”. Otherwise it’s coatings to an inch.

I do think though that the Pacific SSTs have shifted to an orientation that’s especially hostile for snow here. Ever since that huge boiling SST area popped east of Japan we’ve had this zonked Pacific Jet that’s destroyed almost every major snow chance for NYC. I think that will have to change before we’re really back in the game. In the CC era we live in maybe a competing marine heatwave has to pop up that mutes that one out. There will have to be warm water comparatively in the E Pacific.

I’m not convinced of that. It can still easily snow all the way down to NC as we clearly see this year. The overall pattern has just shifted to a very hostile one here and a 30” long term average was never going to stick around for NYC. Boston has also had a very rough few years but Nina patterns that bring SWFEs can produce there vs maybe 1/10 of those being decent in any way here. I don’t think a 50” long term average can stick around for Boston either.

If you want to debate whether the Earth is round or not or how round it is in 2025 (OMFG) there are other threads to do it in. Wow…

More consolation coatings!

And looks like it could mean more dry cold to SWFE/cutter. Pacific jet looks fast, ridge axis is off the W Coast, NAO looks neutral to positive.

Then gas up a boat and book it 200 miles SE?

Could that matter for Richmond up to maybe Cape May? Absolutely. For us we would need major changes to the degree that the models would be laughingstocks for us to get meaningful snow. Meaningful=shovel/plow needed. The upper low related snow could leave coatings to an inch here or there, and maybe some IVT like feature develops which is impossible to ferret out until it’s there. But otherwise the lights are off, doors shut and blinds slammed down. It’s way more than the 50 mile shift we sometimes need.

Icon and RGEM look like the same suppressed garbage. We know where we can toss the NAM.

Despite the cold, which is nothing that remarkable but just stands out given the warming climate, I consider this one of our lousier winters for that reason. Just endlessly skipped over by everything of note except of course any rain events like 2 days ago or New Years Eve.

There might be a way some of us across the area get our consolation coating from the upper low coming through. It’s a closed upper low and quite dynamic, although for me it’s just a reminder of what could have been had the overall pattern not kept it ripped apart.

Their 10-15 year average now can’t be over low to mid-30 inches per winter anymore. So far this winter pretty sure they’re under 20” again. Their long term average is around 45”. The big miller A coast huggers is how they get their bigger totals, otherwise it’s very slim pickings there for anything more than 6” per storm. 3/14/17 was okay there but not great. Miller B-type storms almost always form too late, SWFEs are sleet bombs there, benchmark tracks are too far east, and even clippers often shadow there. It’s also a downslope zone for any rare lake effect or orographic snow which is huge just to their SW in the Laurel Highlands. In colder winters you can have a series of smaller snow events build up somewhat of a snowpack but for snow lovers Central PA from I-80 south especially is a place to stay away from unless those March 1993 and 94 storms come back. Just seems like today the snowstorms all get their act together too late so they nail the Poconos on NE or bad tracks. When I was there winter was dreadfully boring with tons of sleet or piddly few inch snow events.

Flat as a pancake.

Plug has been pulled. It lived a great but short life of maybe 2-3 model runs where ensembles showed a decent shot and we had MECS operational runs. Its nickname-“Buckle up” will always cause awkward laughter and shame. The KU book booted it right out faster than the kicker diving in on it.

And lots of windy useless/wasted cold days like today. And the several more to come this week.

Because the flow isn't amplifying up the coast which would bring moisture with it. The kicker to the west knocks out the western ridge and there's also confluence north of us. So the trough remains a strung out zonal mess that gets booted out.

The overall setup looked like something that may produce but most also said it was something that could easily fall apart mostly because of the unfavorable Pacific. And gee whiz... No one should be surprised we're left with more suppressed garbage.

Maybe it'll just get pinned at the south pole. Maybe some flurries to the Falkland Islands.

When even Norfolk gets blanked, you know it's bad.

Not so bad. I’d rather it miss by 200 miles like this shows vs have a heavy snow band 40 miles south of me like 2/6/10. This year is just comical though for all the suppressed screw jobs.

It’s being destructively interfered with by confluence to the north and a kicker to the west. So actually a double whammy against this one. Maybe these pieces can move around or weaken but time’s running short.

A chunk of E NC and S VA/Delmarva might end with more snow than NYC this year and maybe a good amount more. When was the last time that happened, 1979-80 which was a Nino? I think 12z tomorrow is the final pull the plug, right now it’s on life support getting every AED given to it in the building.

Awesome. Get it out of here.

Cool. Another tooth pull for maybe an inch or two scraper. T-storms on New Years Eve and drenching rain on days like today always a sure bet though.