jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Yep I can see why the Polar Bear Plunge on Sunday was postponed in Long Beach. It’ll be absolutely frigid. I’m sure people will still show up though.
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I was talking verbatim. It does look consistently like there’s some kind of storm setup for around Presidents Day weekend on the long range modeling.
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I plan to be in Boston from 2/13-16 so it’ll be a guaranteed miss or slop. You’re welcome!
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Looks like a SWFE setup. Without a massive high pressure dome like last time locking in cold air, we know how those normally turn out.
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March 2018 was epic. Not calling for that again of course but I’ll take a heavy snow event in March to pad the stats even if it melts faster.
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With the strat warming event forecasted, this has the feel of a “she’s not gonna let us out” winter. Hopefully March can bring us high end storm opportunities.
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Always impressive seeing the Great South Bay almost totally frozen over. The Long Beach Super Bowl splash has been postponed to March. I don’t remember that ever happening before. We did it in 2011 when there was still a lot of snow around from the 1/27 storm.
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Down to 10.
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During any Nina, eventually the late winter warmup arrives. We'll see if this new strat warming can make for a colder March like in 2018, but in any Nina here the clock is always ticking to get our snow in Dec or Jan. Last year we had a decent Feb SWFE, 2018 had the epic March. We'll see what happens.
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The late Dec event ended up on the low end of expectations here despite no sleet and of course 1/25 there was plenty of sleet here too. Suppression sucks and the lack of real opportunity for snow going forward sucks too but we've at least capitalized on a good window during cold enough air and got the snow to stick around. The last three good for shit winters couldn't make that happen. Probably the best we can ask for until the perma-Nina, warm western tropical Pacific regime changes. Honestly today felt great outside for a change and I'll welcome a warm period if it won't snow. Maybe end of Feb or March will bring more snow chances. We know how March 2018 turned out-not expecting that again of course but maybe one or two decent snow events before the end.
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I just looked through the archives including Winter 1994-95 and had a great trip down memory lane. Thanks so much for all the detail and time you put into these. Incredible job.
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Frustrating as suppression is, it's impressive how much of the East is snow covered for a change.
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29.5" Huntington Station.
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Air is very dry so melting is limited but the sun doing its work too.
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The sun is getting a little stronger which helps. Might be a little warmer tomorrow. Streak is over for Boston and Hartford too.
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35 now.
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Central Park at 28 at noon but weather stations in Manhattan above 32.
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32 here. Streak over.
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Most of us at least near the coast will likely get above freezing today. Weather stations are already in the mid 20s mostly and we have another about 3 hours to warm up.
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Guess The Date Of The Next 12"+ Snowstorm In The OKX Zones
jm1220 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Our one good snow event that winter. IMBY it was pure paste snow and the south shore mixed with rain if I remember right. -
Like having the snow cover but yes-the cold/dry is the worst. And even if we do get into the mid 30s during the day the density of the snow will make it take forever to melt.
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Been great so far but reverting back to last winter’s pattern back to cold/dry, warm/wet would be a bummer.
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Very La Niña-ish especially second half of the winter. There’s a signal for something on 2/13-14, maybe that can work out. Feb is our snowiest month on average. At least next winter looks to be at least a modest El Niño. Hopefully we can finally move the warm water in the west tropical Pacific as well so the forcing can move to a more conducive area for us near the Dateline.
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Yep that was a very sad one to watch. Confluence crushed down on it like a sledgehammer as it tried to advance north.
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I measured a couple days ago and I had about 10” in my backyard but over time the sun does get to it a little each day and sublimation. I’m curious about the snow depth in E MA that had 20”+. The last 3-5” was pure fluff.
