jm1220

Thought we could get below freezing with the CAA continuing overnight-oh well. Flurries are nice to see.

That band looks quite impressive and nearly stationary. I remember once in I think 2007 when I was a PSU undergrad we had one of those Huron connected snow bands park overhead and dump 5" of fluff that was gone by the next day since it was in March. Otherwise lots of frustration with those being on the downslope side of the Allegheny Ridge.

Still CAA through early morning at the mid levels so we have a ways to go. We probably get down to 29-30.

Down to 36. Feels frigid with the wind.

Hopefully we get the 4”+ in Central Park that 7 of 8 times in a Nina led to a snowy winter. The White Christmas was nice for sure but the story of the rest of winter was piddly snow events and cold/dry suppression then cutter/warm for the bigger storms other than the one lucky 4-6” SWFE.

Good, maybe we can make something happen here snow wise in Dec for the first time since 2020.

Excellent write up. Hopefully the 2017-18 analog works out best but Jan 2022 was good here too. I’d take a repeat of 2021-22 in a heartbeat vs the disasters since then. If we can just get one or two opportunities to work out, that’s a significant chunk toward our normal. A nice Miller B that can nail the NYC to BOS corridor would be best-this season looks like it might favor it if the Pacific Jet can let up at all.

I guess the winds were supposed to be more NNE yesterday vs NE which would’ve put the band over the city.

Very fickle setup. Chicago was forecast to get 12”+ yesterday, the city mostly has a few inches. They’re getting hit now but the band is pivoting south and won’t last over them long. Meanwhile I don’t think Kenosha was under any kind of warning yesterday and they have the 12+ Chicago was expecting.

If the winds calm down, east of the city on the N Shore especially could see low to mid 20s and teens for Pine Barrens. Definitely a killing freeze for anything outside.

Selfishly I hope you’re wrong since a great December for you means washouts here. But hopefully I get at least a decent event that gets Central Park over 4” for the month.

Northern Nassau is its own zone and should’ve been under an advisory or even freeze warning. Northern/southern LI is defined by the L.I.E. which is where the transition zone often is between microclimates. The barrier islands were in the 40s so definitely no frost there.

Farmingdale too, low there was 31.

29 at the closest station to me, all nearby are below 32. First freeze.

Gradient/SWFE patterns are a dream for your area and when things are right be okay here but definitely not what I’d prefer. South of Philly gets shut out in that type of pattern. Like I said-we can’t do anything about the laws of physics or reality. Without benchmark nor’easters that’s pretty much what MBY is stuck with when we can’t get 3-5” type clippers the way we used to. Selfishly I hope the NNE drought continues.

From 2000-18 generally (had our share of crap winters in that stretch too but generally good to great) we had an overall pattern to support more benchmark storm tracks and therefore above normal snow seasons for the NYC metro. NYC is also far enough NE to catch some of the late bloomer Miller Bs that nail Boston/New England. The Pacific was in better shape with periods of +PDO and drove a more favorable pattern. Bluewave pointed it out many times and showed data to back up the assertion that in 2019 that background changed and we essentially entered a never ending Nina-like state in the mid latitudes with a very warm W Pacific which drives a hostile Pacific jet. Back in the 80s/early 90s we also had hostile patterns but back then we could also count on clippers once in a while or decent front end events so at least we weren’t shut out other than outright atrocious winters like 72-73. I’m not sold on this regime being permanent but there’s no doubt in my mind that other than a rabbit out of the hat rare 20-21 type winter (and even that was modestly above average for NYC itself, the best that winter was in N NJ), the Pacific regime needs to change to get this area back in the game for above average snow winters.

Impossible-no, but would anyone reputable (not someone putting out clickbait for subscriptions) sensibly predict them with the overall pattern we have now? I would think no.

We used to get clippers once in a while but they have largely gone extinct, and 20-30 years ago we used to get hugger tracks that would at least produce on the front end, like the Feb 1995 and March 1993 storms. We really need the offshore benchmark tracks here to have good snow winters now unless these come back.

Yep it would definitely be good to note.

Wow-Stony Brook 70mph, but isn’t that elevated at 100 feet above ground?

The problem was that as soon as a ridge would try to get established in the West, the Pacific jet would just knock it down or shove it east which meant storms couldn’t turn the corner in a good place for us and they’d be forced out to sea. We also couldn’t get a well timed phase with so much chaos and shortwaves everywhere. That’s why I’m so pessimistic about our chances especially north of DC to south of Boston with this pattern continuing. I-90 to maybe I-84 can still get good events from SWFE, very rarely down here when everything aligns. The suppressed patterns can help the DC/Baltimore area and south. East of I-81 and north of the M/D line to around the I-84 corridor, we need those benchmark tracks to have a shot at normal snow. We’re in a unique shaft zone here with this new regime.

I want for him to be wrong too but unfortunately the laws of physics and reality couldn’t care less about what we want.

As others pointed out the models seem to be backing down and it should be an advisory event. A lot of leaves have already come off trees as well which will help limit damage potential.

I love the wet snow that clings to trees and all surfaces vs the drier snow that blows and drifts where one spot can have 2-3 feet and nothing right next to it. Like you said I’ll gladly take whatever we get in this new regime.

The snowy December years often have a “round 2” later in the winter like 2017-18 where the NYC area cashes in again and ends above normal. Winters where Dec doesn’t produce often have the raging Pacific jet or other unfavorable driving factor that never goes away. 2010-11 was one Nina where we really had a 6 week winter from Christmas to 2/1 and that was it, but it was among the most epic in history.