jm1220

12z HRRR has pretty much zero outside of NJ, and even they have less than an inch. If you get anything more than flurries from this consider it a win. It’s a late bloomer storm with the fast jet pattern which might be fine for eastern SNE, and we have to watch to see where this IVT sets up.

Might actually be better in Philly for this vs NYC if the trend is right for the IVT stuff. If I get more than a coating I’ll be thrilled. That CT shaft hole doesn’t want to move.

Take a couple days off and go to Boston. They’ll probably get a few inches and like you said, you hang out and post in the NE forum more anyway. Maybe put in an application for the Boston PD.

Other models seem modestly NW but nothing that would bring the CCB in which would mean real accums. NAM is likely headfaking us again. 99% chance that any shot at accums comes with the inverted trough, and that looks better for NJ on the short term modeling than where I am, which is the middle finger zone between that and developing coastal storm. The inverted trough may shift around though or not happen at all. It's really a nowcast with these.

NAM can't be trusted/followed for anything.

Hopefully we all get something. Sometimes these just disappear too. We’ll see.

For NJ, flurries IMBY. These IVT shift around but models look like they’re favoring NJ. Oh well, enjoy.

It’s still nothing like the droughts you see out West or even places like TX without so many ways to get rain.

Near impossible to sustain a long term drought here.

NAM needs to get taken out behind the barn.

If the coastal really happens (still low chance), SE NJ would be hurt by onshore winds from still warm water. We’ve seen this with Dec coastal storms. If we’re just looking at the IVT, winds would likely be offshore so it would snow to the coast. I’m not jumping in at all with this coastal storm until the big boy models sign on. Seen way too many NAM head fakes. IMBY that’s probably my one chance at decent snow with this since the IVT seems to be highest probability over NJ.

If snowstorms are out of the question, sign me up.

I’m a little over 10 miles from the ocean and 200 ft elevation, hopefully that helps.

Some mood flakes/a coating is always nice. These IVT are impossible to pin down until they happen so hopefully it verifies.

Too bad the only time we were able to have any cold air with the Nino driven storms was was early Feb. We did make it count somewhat.

Where I live it can snow with short lived cold/cold enough snaps like in early Feb 2024 when there was a 6-8” event here. But we usually need a somewhat active southern stream which we definitely had last winter which was aided by El Niño and gave us record winter precipitation. Northern stream dominant winters spawn Miller B events that favor New England, once in a while down here if they can develop soon enough. Often they favor cutters or SWFEs. Fast northern stream dominant winters are kiss of death for Philly on south. It’s why La Nina is a great setup for the places that have had good/great winters since the Pacific regime changed 6 years ago. Even when not Nina officially the pattern’s acted very much like it because of the boiling W Pacific, and even the strong official Nino last winter couldn’t shake the La Niña influences. La Niña/El Nino are as much about the W as E Pacific.

Right-bad luck is a one or two time occurrence but it happening constantly it seems like indicates a larger issue. The fast Pacific jet doesn’t give time or space for any meaningful storm to develop offshore and take a good track. There’s always some turd in the punchbowl to ruin it.

No ski resort here.

Dry useless cold. Woohoo!

Sheet drizzle city here too. Tomorrow at least it should clear out before the next useless cold/dry wave that will warm right up for the next sheet drizzle city event.

The trough is moving into the Gulf of Alaska which means the US/Canada get flooded with maritime air. As long as it stays there you can safely slam the blinds for any wintry weather. Depressing-I did have the one snowy overnight IMBY but nothing else happening in a Dec that might be below normal temp wise is depressing. Hopefully when the torch comes there's sunny weather. I'm perfectly fine with that if it won't snow. Wasted cold/dry to warm/wet is the worst and it happens over and over in these Nina/fast Pacific jet patterns. Get it the F out of here.

A lot’s always had to go right for the coast to get significant snow, but the pieces/pattern were in place prior to 2018-19. The Pacific changed and that’s what ruined it more often than not. Once in a while the NAO can help us out but the Pacific’s always been the main driver. When we’re flooded with warm Pacific air on a roaring fast jet stream or we have a huge negative PNA not much else can help us. We’re not at the latitude where we can count on SWFE events or marginal events.

All I’ll say is I’d rather be told the truth about upcoming warm patterns vs be told what I want to hear for subscriptions and clicks. I’d think/hope most of us do too even though we want snowy patterns and we bias what we read accordingly. And I have to ask-who’s been mostly right since the Pacific pattern changed in 2018? I don’t enjoy reading that it’ll probably stay snowless or below average snow but until the overall pattern changes in a meaningful way to bring chances south of I-90 that’s what’ll likely happen. And again most of you haven’t read Bluewave for years like I have and don’t remember how he’d highlight the tendency for NYC/LI to get big coastal snowstorms during our boom periods. We were due for a significant regression anyway. We all hope it comes to an end soon but the weather/nature don’t care about weenie wishes on a weather board.

Bluewave’s pointed it out many times but the fast Pacific pattern is ruining what storm chances we get and making it much more Nina-like which is cold/dry to warm/wet. The cold troughs are replaced a few days later with a ridge which is when we get the storms. We need a mechanism like blocking to keep the trough in the east when storms come so we don’t get cutters or overwhelming warmth when they happen from the SE ridge flexing.

Congratulations! -11 there last night, just a little(way) too nippy for me. If it's so cold out you can't enjoy the snow that's another bummer. Closest I've ever been to there is Lake George.