jm1220

Still not all the way there for sure though. The fact that a 40k person city (higher in the summer) still has no hospital is a major problem. Parking is even worse now from all the raised houses and additional no-parking driveways. The bay side is still as vulnerable to flooding as ever, and that's how most homes were flooded by Sandy (mine included) since that side of the city is lower in elevation than by the ocean. In many nor'easters it's a joke how much flooding there still is from the bay. The beach side is much better though.

Maybe the location right on the water added a degree to temps and it stuck less? Or they’re just wrong? LOL Congrats up there. Reminds me of the late March event we had last year that was widespread 12”+ here. It’s finally wintry looking outside here which is good but the warmth aloft screwed it from what it should’ve been. 4-5” instead of 8”.

Sleet line is south of Staten Island, around New Brunswick area. Most of NYC is snow except Rockaways. Poster from the Bronx said almost an inch already.

I agree. It's making good progress NE, and HRRR/RAP are keeping it going for a while. By the time it gets to Boston may be a different story, but the same models have been bringing the enhancement back a little in SE MA. Snow coming down good after an initial brief period of sleet in NYC. Hopefully this is one where many of us shafted ones can win at least a little.

I'm on team "stuff circled below", but crazy how much this is a nowcast event with the ludicrous shifts within 24 hours. And then we have the next event under 48 hours out subject to the same shifts based on this event. Glad I'm not doing this for a living tonight. Lots of egg about to be splattered on someone's face.

Maybe wishful thinking but the last HRRR/RAP run got a bit more potent further north. The radar does look encouraging coming into this area at least. Hopefully the sleet stops advancing-the same models change it over to snow when it gets going around NYC. But 0.5-1 degree too cold at 850 and it's mostly pellets.

If anyone's going to score from this, I'd think your area would be it, and then east toward Plymouth and the upper Cape. Hoping to get something decent down here, short range models other than the NAM are cold enough for a few inches. This winter, whatever falls is gladly taken.

If I had to pick a spot to be for this, it would definitely be just south of Roanoke, down I-81 to Bristol and the W NC mountains. You guys should get buried around there. Enjoy!

I would track the 700/850mb lows on the models-where they go determines who mixes and dryslots. If the 850mb low goes over or north of you, expect a significant period of sleet. And mid level warming is often underestimated by models-I would take the warmest mid level forecast and go with that. Surface level warming can be overestimated, so that may set up a nasty area of ZR. Something we get burned with plenty of times up here too. Good luck down there as I may spot a cirrus cloud or two from this later today. Just maybe. Usually these suppressed pieces of crap at least get some cirrus up here.

The stronger than average SE Ridge will eventually burn us near the coast and force tracks inland. We’ve been on a good run without much blocking but it can’t last forever.

Lee Goldberg has 1-3" for NYC and most coastal areas (less than 1" far eastern LI, south Jersey Shore). Mentioned colder conditions on Fri than some models are showing. But honestly, good luck to anyone who has to make a snow forecast right now. Could be 1" in the city if the CCB is crap and we don't cool down, to half a foot or more if it really goes off.

TWC looks to go on the GFS output which as we know is the warmest of any model.

Nina years are always concerning here. Ninas keep the SE Ridge strong as well as the Pacific Jet. We could have an 07-08 winter with tons of SWFE events that nail I-90, or one with tons of Lakes cutters. If we can get a few periods of blocking, it could be another blockbuster like 10-11. Could really go either way. If it's not roaring into a strong Nina, our odds are probably better.

I ended up with about a foot. A ton was wasted on the front end with sleet and rain in Long Beach. We had almost as much liquid as areas east of us.

Believe it or not State College's snow average is in the mid 40s, but since the recent shift to big offshore and late developing coastal storms from NJ on NE, that area's been left high and dry. Clippers usually do okay there, since it's close enough to the Allegheny spine to still get some decent snow before downsloping really shafts the Susquehanna Valley. But transferring Miller B-type systems often do little there since the moisture and lift shifts to the coast, it's often too warm for systems that hit the I-90 corridor hard, lake cutters often just bring a lot of sleet or ZR before rain, and lake effect is usually just flurries other than being very lucky with a long running band (happened a couple of times when I was there with a few inches of surprise snow). In the 1990s, coast hugging miller A's were more common, which are what does bury central PA, but those never happen anymore. March 1993's monster was over 2 feet there, as was a similar storm in March 1994. It was very frustrating being there as a snow weenie, for sure. And I remember having numerous close calls and good setups that ended up producing little. One of these years the pattern will shift back to producing again back there, but it's undeniable that there's been a shift away from the types of snowstorms that can hit central PA really hard.

Nice towers up this evening east of Austin-towards Bastrop. Radar indicates a small patch of 2" of rain there.

It was pretty much a bust for I-35, as I suspected it would be last night when the boundary was pushed way SE of where models had it by the MCV that rolled through yesterday afternoon. Some places SE of San Antonio did get 6"+ of rain, mainly in low populated areas.

10" this month, 1.6" today where I am. Camp Mabry's August all time record is about 9.6", so that's already beaten a few miles south of there. Models are firing the rain back up over I-35 overnight, but for now the main heavy rain axis was shunted pretty far SE by the MCV that came through the area this afternoon. That will have to start to shift back north pretty soon for the models to verify. Pretty sure the models are busting on the SE extent of the heavy rain-it's making inroads towards the Corpus Christi area now when most models had SE TX largely dry. If the rain stalls out there instead, I doubt we see much more in the Austin/San Antonio areas-the moisture will all be used up there.

It's looking like there could be some serious flooding from this area south through San Antonio and west. NWS is projecting up to 15" of rain in spots, which would cause major flooding considering all the rain we've had in the last 4-5 days. The latest models are starting to focus on the Austin area and just south/west. This might become a very dangerous event if we get training heavy rain/storms overnight.

Euro has another 4"+ of rain coming later this weekend especially I-35 and west with locally 7" in the western Hill Country. I think Camp Mabry needs 3.5" or so to make this the wettest August on record. I ended up with about 8.5" from the latest system that is finally gone. For LA, rain looks to be lighter, 1-3", but obviously any rain is unwelcome there (or here at this point-some creeks around Austin had flooding at times in the last few days).

Today's rain brought me to over 8". A couple of spots just west of town closer to Lake Travis have 12"+.

Heavy rain again nailing western Travis/Hays Counties where 8-10"+ of rain has already fallen, and creeks have already been flooding. Hearing thunder outside now, rain is slowly pivoting east again towards downtown. The last few nights have had these bouts of locally heavy rain that have dropped locally 3-5" each night.

Flash flood warnings up again for Austin and suburbs. About to go over 7" where I am, and other area totals are 8-10"+.

Flash Flood Warnings out for western Travis, Williamson and Burnet Counties. The Lake Travis area was nailed early this morning-Lakeway has an event total over 10" now.

High was 76 at Camp Mabry today. Was unbelievably refreshing, actually chilly. I think this is a record for lowest high temp for this date, about 20 degrees below normal. Event total just shy of 5" where I am.