jm1220

I won’t believe a modeled snow event this time of year until it’s here. It’s still almost ridiculously early in the season and this setup might trend to sheared garbage or something that blows up too late/out to sea given how deep the trough is. Keep expectations checked.

Not much of a surprise-there isn’t much to stop this from continuing to amplify. We’re really relying on this being a fast system to keep it flatter but if the northern stream digs more or it slows down, that could be an outcome.

It really would have to be about perfect for much impact near the coast, although it’s happened before pretty recently. The track may also become more amplified due to the northern stream involvement which often causes a north trend toward the end. This looks best for elevated areas in Orange/Putnam and interior CT. I’d expect some white rain and be thrilled if it’s anything more near the city and coast.

30 in my neighborhood.

38-39 in my neighborhood. Amazing how a few miles north near the sound is still in the mid 40s on wunderground. I was in Long Beach this evening, clear difference in temp from there to here.

They become eyesores in the winter because they all die. I have no clue how the city doesn’t put them somewhere to survive the winter. What a waste of money.

I wonder how long until cold-hardy palm trees can survive up here?

Serious cold plunging through the Plains. Austin TX got down to 25 last night at the airport (a more rural setting but 20 mins from downtown).

Farmingdale 46 mph.

Some strong gusts here in S Huntington, some have to be pushing 40. HRRR says we should have a shot at 50-55mph when what's left of the line comes through.

Models are pretty unanimous that it falls apart as it moves through NJ. That would limit what strong winds can mix down. There may be some 50mph gusts but not the same as if we had the full squall line coming through.

I remember it being enough to mostly cover grass at one point but never more than that, and when the precip was lighter it melted. My street got slushy at a couple of heavier points.

Most of the precip that fell even in Long Beach was snow but little stuck. We could never get the depth on the grass more than a couple inches and the roads were on and off slushy.

Seems to show as well that N PAC temp anomalies respond to the pattern vs the other way around. The insane PAC Jet pattern needs to calm down though before we can get sustained cold here and hope for a pattern other than regular cutters. Luckily it’s still mid-Fall.

Yup, wasn’t expecting that given how far SE the other models were. Good job by the Nam.

Trend is very clear. I'd be pretty stunned if much makes it north of Cape May. NHC is also insistent on bending it E once it reaches NC.

CMC also pretty far SE with the track and precip, if anything even further SE than the GFS. I know it's not a tropical model by any means but NAM definitely on its own. Maybe the heavy precip/storms currently near Tampa shows where this is going-SE as it pulls the center and therefore track.

Crazy NAM/GFS disagreement on this for something so close in. NAM has heavy rain making it well into PA and the Hudson Valley, GFS crushes it to where heavy rain doesn't make it north of the Delmarva. We should see fairly soon which is right-NAM develops a big blob of heavy rain into western NC, even east TN and north GA. GFS concentrates it onto the GA/Carolina coast and drags it east from there. NHC track is still pretty clear on it coming in near Panama City and bending NE to ENE out near Nags Head NC which is much more inline with the GFS.

Good luck to any model or met trying to forecast something 4-5 days out or more. Probably plenty of crazy last minute model shifts again as they try to sort out the dueling influences.

There was a small tree down on Round Swamp Rd near the Northern State when I drove by, and some larger branches down here and there. In my neighborhood, lots of twigs and small branches down. So around me, probably 40-45 mph gusts or so, maybe here and there over 50.

Pre-Sandy, Irene, Mar 2010 nor’easter. That 2.5 year period decimated any long standing trees there.

Given the wind reports on the coast it must’ve been howling in Long Beach. Surprised there aren’t more power outages down there it seems.

Doesn’t look terrible in my neighborhood. Lots of smaller branches down but nothing too bad. On my office’s street in Melville there’s a large branch down.

The best winds may be after the low passes from the west.

The low is going almost directly over us and it’s flying along. Hard to get prolific rain amounts when that’s the case. Anyway, pouring out and fairly gusty wind here in S Huntington. Stations have 1-1.2” of rain so far.