jm1220

This is likely one for the Hudson Valley and inland CT and the rest of us wait for whatever rotates around the low on Monday. Might be some light snow showers mostly or something that can accumulate. Maybe there’s an inch or two on the front end but it quickly gets washed away. It’ll be nice to have a brief period of snow on the ground (hopefully) but unless there are major changes at this point this is one that jackpots I-90. Models are keying in on Boston to around Monticello getting the brunt of the front end snow and wrap around from the low with little warming in between.

It's at the point now where models keying in on the Boston to Catskills jackpot swath is at least meaningful. The upper air evolution and closed off 500 low are classic for a SNE clobbering event.

Boston to the Catskills is probably the best place to be for this. Hopefully table scraps rotate down our way after the brief snow to drenching.

Essentially another 4-1-97. I’ll pass on that disaster. If I remember right it was actually supposed to be an okay event around NYC and the end result was practically nothing and an endless dryslot.

If the snow behind the low is banded and comes down moderate, it should accumulate and it’s possible if it’s dynamic enough- it’ll be a closed off upper low. If it’s occasional snow showers or light I doubt it accumulates.

My hopes aren’t for anything more than a quick inch or maybe two on grass, and I live in a cold part of Long Island now. Anyone should know the 12z Euro might be a pipe dream-I could see how it happens but we need much more to go right than for people on I-90. Initially most models have a quick burst of snow even for the coast but the primary and deep southerly flow will keep that brief unless the upper low can really dig and force the redevelopment south which cuts off the warm air. The consensus is that happens in time for 50mi or so north of the city and pivots lots of moisture overhead-we possibly dryslot and stay warm down here until the back end which is maybe when we pick up a little more snow since these closed 500 lows often have precip on the west side of the surface low, and cold air comes back south. Something like the 4-1-97 type evolution which demolished Boston to Albany, Catskills and Poconos. We really need this all to happen a little further south.

The place for this should be from near Boston to the Catskills IMO. If models start ticking back north I think this is about done for NYC outside of a lucky 1-2” on the back end. There’s still an outside shot this can produce near the coast but we need the blocking high to be locked in and force the redevelopment to be earlier and south.

A closed 500 low should have some backlash precip, that should at least give most of us a period of snow. Those usually aren’t impressive but they can surprise. The key is the closed upper low that rotates moisture all the way around from the north.

In this case it would be a negative trend but it happens more often than not. We really need that block to keep this south because initially the bowling ball primary will try to drive the warm air in and resist redeveloping. Which brings up another trend over the last few years- long lasting primary lows.

Jan 25, 2016 says hi.

If the blocking prevents that it won’t be able to. But no doubt the odds still favor New England and upstate NY over down here. Maybe my location on the north shore now can get me to an inch or so at the end after getting drenched. That’s my hope for this at this point. If it ends up better, great but not too disappointing if it’s all rain.

If the high keeps getting stronger it could.But maybe it’s overcorrecting. The reason it’s looking better for us is that high-hopefully that can keep going.

Becoming slightly intrigued but a very long way to go. We need the high and block to the north to be strong otherwise it trends back north and crushes Boston to the Catskills.

If I see a slushy inch or two I’d be thrilled. Always nice to see the eye candy on the Euro but the high up north can weaken and this goes back to a I-90 special. Odds are that SNE will be smiling a lot more than us down here but who knows I guess.

Yikes. Good for them but lousy to say the least for getting sustained cold and hopes for snow in the East at least near the coast.

The primary and initial southerly flow look way too strong right now for most of us, and the coastal low gets going too late. It all has to be nudged south for that to change. It can still happen but right now I’d wager on it being mostly rain or a brief mix near the city. These primary lows where we wait forever for it to transfer offshore don’t work out here.

The very positive tilt on that trough is a huge downer on this threat too. Who knows if other models follow suit but I can’t think of many snow producers here on a positive tilted racing East trough like that.

Awesome, suppression!! From the GFS that’s a good sign. (Whether this happens who knows but I’d wager quite a bit it doesn’t)

At this range I’d rather the GFS target SE VA with heavy snow. Nice eye candy but that’s about all it’s worth at this point.

The Nina like Pacific pattern will try to keep building the SE Ridge, so the warmth may be muted but the block will have to be strong to stop it from influencing things too much. It would be a lot better if the Pacific was also helping.

Just for fun, but we can make this a contest as well. I don't recall something similar for seasonal snow in the past here and other subforums have these. So, please guess for the following locations (my guess and this is for the whole season) NYC: 30.2" EWR: 32.1" HPN: 38.5" ISP: 33.6" JFK: 25.8" MMU: 39.0" BLM: 20.3" BDR: 35.7" MGJ (Montgomery, NY) 50.4" Just for me, but you can guess this as well: Long Beach: 24.0", Huntington Station: 35.0"-distance between both about 25 miles. (last winter was subpar in both locations but I probably had close to twice the seasonal snow here vs. Long Beach because of marginal March events. Definitely a colder microclimate up here) My thoughts (admittedly I pay nowhere near the attention to seasonal indicators as others do in their predictions and I'm not qualified in any way to forecast, but I read Isotherm, etc's forecasts) are that hopefully we can buy an additional break or two this winter but generally a similar pattern to last season. We were just very unlucky a few times and would've done better with a less suppressed December pattern and any semblance of coastal storm activity later on. I don't see a blockbuster by any means but hopefully not terrible. Inland areas should continue the recent pattern of doing well vs coastal areas since I can see the WAR pushing the storm track close to/over the coast.

Snow on the ground in SE VA, NC and Nashville?!

Mangled flakes in Melville.

Below freezing at my place last night. Groundwater/small puddles froze up.

Part of last year was just bad luck. In December, storms slammed VA and the DC area with snow and got suppressed. Places to our south actually went above average for snow last winter. DCA almost tied NYC for total snow, last time that happened I can’t think of. Then the pattern flipped and went to straight cutters. The MJO got stuck in phase 4-5 and we couldn’t buy anything. Hopefully at least that can work out better this year.