jm1220

Another good step in the right direction. The storm slowing down helps too, maybe the confluence has more time to weaken. The deeper trend is definitely what we want to see.

1.5pt favorites last I saw. Brilliant game, ND will be a tough opponent. Unfortunately for us Franklin is known to choke in big game situations but here’s his huge chance to break that curse.

If the confluence weakens we’ll continue to see ticks north. We have to see this trend continue tonight/tomorrow.

Without significant changes and unless models other than the Icon jump on board.

Good step in the right direction.

If other models tonight like the Euro get on board, I’ll buy that something might happen here (meaning I-80 corridor/latitude). If not this run is likely a tease.

Yes those two (first two).

Probably a tease until other models jump on.

Not that difficult a call here unfortunately without significant changes. There’s still time but we really need to see it soon-a big weakening trend in the confluence or stronger S/W that can nudge it north. These relatively minor changes won’t do it. We’ve seen this show before in 2022, 2019 etc.

This is where I say I’m fine with it being warm again then. Dry cold here while we watch DC and VA rack up snow events-get that out of here.

Probably a really nice stretch coming up for BWI-ACY, maybe 15” in those areas by the time Monday’s done. While some places in SNE have 1” or less.

If we have strong enough confluence and northerly flow in the mid levels to our north driving in dry mid level air, it doesn’t matter how officially negative the NAO is. We have a strong 50-50 low and PV lobe to our north which have to weaken or move out of the way or we get zilch. A stronger S/W will help but that will be weakening as well as it moves east into the shredder created by the big upper low to our NE. That’s what causes the ESE leaning precip shield, that’s how you can tell confluence and dry air are crushing it and weakening the S/W.

Not totally given up but I wouldn’t play the odds on this one for sure.

Best to hope for the 10% chance that we see those changes but accept the 90% chance we just have clouds/flurries while DC to Philly clean up. Much as it sucks, not much will happen here until this suppress-to-crap blocking pattern clears up, and then we have to hope there’s a window where we can score before we go back to the regular cutters pattern.

I’m about done with this one unless we see substantial changes. Trenton to Belmar on south are probably good for at least 1-3”. The confluence has to weaken significantly for much to get north of that line. Otherwise it will keep getting shunted/crushed ESE like models are mostly showing. And they often don’t account enough for the dry air to be overcome, so those models showing 1-2” in NYC might just be showing virga or very light snow reaching the ground. The N edge of these confluence deals are always sharp, there won’t be a gradual end to the snow. Where the upper flow becomes westerly or northerly around the PV lobe/50-50 low the snow will abruptly shut off. The storm can be as moist laden as it wants, it needs the southerly upper air flow to get here.

That ESE precip lean tells the story. Need the confluence out of the way.

Fingers crossed but we’ll see. If there’s the confluence brick wall it won’t matter how much moisture this storm brings. If the upper air flow over us is from the W or N, it will get shunted away. 2/6/10 also had a lot of moisture in a strong El Niño. NYC had flurries to 2”, PHL had 2 feet. These confluence setups always drop the immovable brick wall somewhere. We need to see it let up or the S/W notably strengthen and nudge the confluence N to have a chance.

I want to see more pronounced bumps N for me to really jump in for this threat at least along I-80 which includes NYC/LI. The northern edge of these are sometimes overdone because dry air will eat at the precip as it tries to come north. So I really want to see some of these models get good snow into the Hudson Valley and CT. And if the models start to back away that’s obviously bad too. The wave will also likely be weakening as it comes east and battles the 50-50 low and confluence. I think it’s still less than 50% chance our subforum sees anything decent, and in actuality probably nothing given the N edge will likely be sharp because of the dry air issues.

The confluence is weakening on this run and S/W is strengthening, that's why it bumped north. Hopefully the trend keeps up.

Honestly if it’s suppressed to garbage hundreds of miles south it sucks but it’s not as painful as a 2/6/10 where a megaband makes it 20 miles from you and there’s little more than light sand in your backyard. More dry useless cold. Hopefully around mid month it doesn’t go directly back to endless warm cutters and we get an opportunity.

More lightning strikes than flakes through 1/10?

A tick more painful watching the snow inch ever closer as the dry air eats it up for a snack.

That was the most intense lightning storm we’ve had in Long Beach in quite some time. Looks like it got more intense out in Suffolk.

Can’t buy a 3” snow event when it’s cold, but these happen every winter now without fail.

Crazy lightning in Long Beach, torrential rain. Power flash 20 seconds ago. Yikes.