jm1220

I’ll just have to laugh if Dallas to Austin go well ahead of Central Park for snow by 1/15. In W TX it’s not so rare especially in the panhandle.

Blocking when it’s this strong can suppress everything. There’s bad timing with this PV lobe but strong blocking makes this bad luck more likely. DC needs a setup like this not us.

Has a chance if all the energy doesn't get strung out to the SW. If more of that can be consolidated and move east we can make something happen.

Really not much suspense with this one other than a couple outlier runs. Looked like your typical confluence screw job setup that favors DC to AC for the last 48 hours. There were ways we could’ve gotten the storm to trend north with the confluence relaxing or S/W strengthening but that PV lobe showing up and refusing to yield over S Quebec sealed it. I guess Philly is the real question mark now, odds are it does come N a little at the very end and they should get into it but the confluence hammer might keep pressing south.

Zzzzzz……

I guess the pain will be less since the heavy snow band will be 75-100 miles away vs 20. Our chance will come when the pattern changes and blocking relaxes. This should be a lesson forever that blocking patterns aren’t always good for us. It’s really around the DC area that needs it. Here it’s helpful but we get hit more often when it relaxes and often like now hurts.

Based on that even I-195 might not even see much, might need to be in Philly to AC and on SW. For any miracle outcome I’d want to see big moves to it tonight since the major pieces should be sampled now.

You can also see the source region for this "arctic" air, it's essentially maritime air recycled around the huge upper low. Cold enough for snow certainly but we don't have a connection to the pole.

The strong PV lobe just N of Vermont needs to leave or weaken significantly. It's a great run for DC over to ACY but sucks north of there because that PV lobe presses the confluence hammer down just as our storm approaches. As long as that's there anywhere near that strong we're screwed up here. Period.

Tough call there. I’d probably expect a couple or few inches. More clear cut around ACY, north of there becomes more iffy based on minor shifts.

Something else that’s just about gone extinct is the direct shot of Arctic cold from the north which gives us some of our coldest readings like in early Feb 2016. Now our “Arctic” blasts come in from the west and get significantly modified.

In 18-19 if not mistaken DC was above average because of the Jan 2019 event, and when the pattern relaxed in March the northern suburbs got their storms (I did OK on the N Shore). Horrendous winter for southern NYC/LI-too far N for the suppressed crap storms, too far S when the pattern relaxed. That’s the winter that started this raging Pacific spraying crap all over the place era, so wouldn’t be surprised at all for it happening again.

Situation hasn’t changed from 24 hours ago. And now we have 24 hours less for the changes needed which are substantial not a few minor tweaks. I don’t think most of us care about a car topper or coating that’s gone in a few hours.

It fringes ACY with any good snow which is I guess better than 6z. All you need to know. Minor improvements here and there aren’t enough north of Trenton to Belmar.

By South Jersey I consider it south of I-195, Central Jersey I guess would be between there and I-78.

Models often overestimate the northern extent of snow when we’re dealing with so much confluence/dry air. The radar will show wave after wave of it get eaten which is what I remember from that 1/3/22 storm, the Jan 2019 storm and 2/6/10. There likely won’t be a large area of 1-2” like this, it goes from a very small amount to warning snow quickly in that northernmost fronto/death band. The 1-2” area shown is likely just virga.

Avoid this forum or anything weather related on Monday then. All you can do other than listen for Mother Nature cackling at us. That’s why I said I mind it less if we never had a shot in the first place and this was crushing Richmond/Norfolk. I totally buy the sharp northern edge, these dry air/confluence storms almost always have those deals where you have the ESE leaning snow shield out of PA and it goes from a coating to 6” within 20-30 miles. The S NJ posters here might still get a nice event.

You can loop it through on the model runs, it’s the vorticity max and lower heights that develop over western Quebec as our storm is moving east. That increases the resistance to the storm moving north, dampens it out (weakens it), and rushes dry air south. That lobe might weaken or move away, but it’s most responsible for killing our chances with this storm.

There have been some spots of hope like the GFS last night but this was always a long shot here because of so much confluence. Best to understand that and hope there’s a rabbit pulled out of the hat but much more likely to be disappointment. There’s still some time for a miracle like that PV lobe crushing the storm south to pivot away or weaken, but we need to see that asap along with a stronger S/W. I doubt there’s even a graze for 90% of our subforum, probably just cloudy. Northern stream dominated patterns like these just suck here 90%+ of the time-wave interference, too late blooming Miller B, warm cutter/SWFE, or this.

With this being a Nina and fast Pacific jet like we’ve pretty much had since late 2018 nonstop, once the blocking relaxes it might just go back to cutters or SWFE that favor New England. Our hope is that in the transition something can sneak in and get us. This pattern is tailor made to screw us. The fast pattern allows for suppressed threats or cutters but seemingly not ones for us. Makes you appreciate 2020-21 even more when somehow we got some threats to work.

2 below average temp months and below normal snow, while south of us cleans up. If that’s not a kick in the teeth for a snow weenie not sure what is.

I’m giving this one less than 10% for anything more than a car topper for NYC/LI/I-80 corridor. We need sustained N trends on all the major modeling today as the shortwave finally gets sampled. That’s the one last hope I think we have.

The deeper/stronger S/W solutions are also the slower ones, so it's probably a double benefit in the stronger WAA push and the confluence having more time to exit. CMC/UK look a lot weaker and more progressive with it. So maybe when the S/W comes onshore tomorrow we'll finally have better consensus. The UK fringing BWI for crying out loud wasn't what I wanted.

They usually edge into these type of events so I agree there. Bottom line is the confluence has to get out of the way at least a decent bit for us to have a shot. A stronger S/W will help but strong enough confluence will just start to shred it up since it's running into a massive upper low to our NE and dry air. The slower evolution probably helps too since it gives time for the PV lobe and therefore confluence to pivot away.

Unfortunately GGEM looks like suppressed crap. Looks south of 12z.