jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Still in the teens here, already above freezing in Long Beach and Jones Beach. When the winds kick up overnight, our temps here will go up in a hurry.
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18 here. Frigid wintry environment tonight.
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The 8+ amounts looked common from LGA east to Port Jeff. Crazy difference between LGA and Central Park-4” difference in a few miles. The jackpot locally may have been N Nassau. A couple of 9” amounts there.
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We were under a part of the heavy frontogenesis band that nailed CT and MA. HRRR/RAP finally picked up on it and got rid of the bogus subsidence area it had in CT as it was taking place. This really was a nowcast storm but some of the mesos did have a heavy band in this area for a few runs.
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We benefitted from part of the heavy fronto band that blasted CT and MA, which provided great snow growth. The VVs shown on some models greatly helped. Only limiting factors were the fast movement and the fact it was only starting to really get together at our area.
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The champs for our sub forum look to be Smithtown with 9.1” and Glen Cove with 9.3”. Numerous 8-9” reports from Port Jeff to LGA on the north shore.
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Nice totals right down to the south shore too. Lido Beach reported 7.5”.
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The temp is below freezing so no. Compacting sure due to the fluff factor
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Last few flurries here. I’m going with 8”.
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Wow, nice! Still light snow here as well.
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Snow actually borderline moderate again.
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Definitely a fluff bomb. There must be 12-15:1 ratios or even higher in this.
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About 8” in my backyard/my deck which is a guess. Light snow picking back up.
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Seems like many in NYC have 6”+. Surprised they weren’t upgraded to warnings.
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Mod to heavy still as this band pushes east. Looks like 7-8” on the ground.
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Mod to heavy and estimating a few inches. I think we easily go past 6 and have a good shot at 8" given what's left.
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Coming down moderately with a good coating on everything. Big flakes. We're going to do well in this event I think. We have another 5 hours of this to go with it still snowing heavily near DC. RAP and HRRR are a little better once again.
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HRRR and RAP are looking a little better as well FWIW. Both show about 0.5" liquid east of the city and a nice band roughly western half of LI and much of CT for 6". 0z Euro shows roughly the same.
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I know as well as anyone how much it sucks for snow having grown up there lol. But we have a banter thread for that and this is just the start for the event. It’ll cool down once the intensity goes up.
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Snowing nicely here with big flakes. Cold surfaces are starting to accumulate. Radar looks good to me as well.
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Stop being ridiculous. The event is just getting started. And BTW I’m deleting all the posts about “frustrated”, “South Shore sucks”, already crying bust, bickering etc. Grow up.
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Rare that although this will be a moderate event it'll be shared by so many. In this day and age we get all or nothing storms. Very nice. Hopefully that transition area in W NJ isn't too bad.
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RGEM looks good, maybe a slight cut back from 18z. It has that heavy area again over Ocean and Monmouth. They might do quite well.
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Really down to nowcasting and seeing how our system develops vs the convection well offshore that will rob from it to some degree. The NAM/mesos/RAP/HRRR seem divided over how well it develops for us overnight and how much precip we get. Actually they seem to favor something of a subsidence area over CT and a heavier area over coastal NJ at this point. 3-6"/4-7" seems like the best range for us.
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GFS looked good. Has plenty of precip well inland too. 0.5" liquid makes it to Newburgh. LI gets a good 6". With decent ratios, the whole Upton area probably gets warning/borderline amounts on that run. This would suggest 2"/hr snow.
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