jm1220

Uhm, WTF?

Michael soon to be another retiree... Surge damage here will be catastrophic, this is one of the most vulnerable surge locations in the US.

My thought a couple of days ago was it would be like a Fran or a little stronger when it hit, now I think it'll be a Cat 2, Isabel-like. The much slower motion will result in a lot more damage though than Isabel caused in the Carolinas (Isabel was worse further north in the Chesapeake from surge)

Conditions looked favorable (and are still somewhat favorable IMO) for it to reach land as a solid Cat 3, even borderline Cat 4 a couple days ago. The storm looks too degraded now for that to take place, but those predictions are always a crap shoot. It may be more of an Isabel intensity when it reaches land, but Isabel was never remembered for wind anyway, by far it was for surge.

Sandy hit NJ as a cat 1. It wasn't overhyped in the least. If anything it ended up even worse than predicted because of how damaging the surge was. I had gusts here to 85 mph maybe, but my town was still devastated by water. A near stalled hurricane on the NC/SC coast will cause horrendous surge damage over multiple tide cycles. Also, the crawl inland will result in massive rain amounts. The records in SC were broken with the Joaquin-associated rain but I wonder how close this will come. Wind won't be as big a factor, but the vast majority of damage and death the big ones cause are water related.

Looking like this will be somewhere between a Fran and Isabel intensity level coming in, but the larger size and fetch will mean a greater surge threat, in addition to the slower speed. The eye becoming less distinct and issues with shear/dry air mean to me that intensity is leveling off and may decrease as it comes near shore and especially as it slows and interacts with land. I’d guess Cat 2 somewhere when the eye wall makes it onshore. The surge though will still be a horrible issue given the slow forward speed and large size.

EWRC's are a roll of the dice as to when they occur. Harvey blew up at a very bad time for the Corpus Christi area, other storms like Rita/Katrina peaked too early and were on a weakening trend as they came in. If overall shear increases as Florence comes ashore (maybe that should still be called an if, considering where the stall/loop may occur and how the ridge builds overhead), it may be enough to disrupt the overall environment for it to come down to maybe Fran-like intensity. If the shear doesn't materialize, there's little to stop it IMO from being Harvey or Hugo-like strength coming in. I'm guessing at a slightly rightward track from current, and coming ashore around Morehead City or over Pamlico Sound given the model trends today, but it's a guess. The Euro being steadfast on a further south track means something, and would be the more devastating scenario IMO.

Lee Goldberg has 1-3" for NYC and most coastal areas (less than 1" far eastern LI, south Jersey Shore). Mentioned colder conditions on Fri than some models are showing. But honestly, good luck to anyone who has to make a snow forecast right now. Could be 1" in the city if the CCB is crap and we don't cool down, to half a foot or more if it really goes off.

TWC looks to go on the GFS output which as we know is the warmest of any model.

Nina years are always concerning here. Ninas keep the SE Ridge strong as well as the Pacific Jet. We could have an 07-08 winter with tons of SWFE events that nail I-90, or one with tons of Lakes cutters. If we can get a few periods of blocking, it could be another blockbuster like 10-11. Could really go either way. If it's not roaring into a strong Nina, our odds are probably better.

I ended up with about a foot. A ton was wasted on the front end with sleet and rain in Long Beach. We had almost as much liquid as areas east of us.

Believe it or not State College's snow average is in the mid 40s, but since the recent shift to big offshore and late developing coastal storms from NJ on NE, that area's been left high and dry. Clippers usually do okay there, since it's close enough to the Allegheny spine to still get some decent snow before downsloping really shafts the Susquehanna Valley. But transferring Miller B-type systems often do little there since the moisture and lift shifts to the coast, it's often too warm for systems that hit the I-90 corridor hard, lake cutters often just bring a lot of sleet or ZR before rain, and lake effect is usually just flurries other than being very lucky with a long running band (happened a couple of times when I was there with a few inches of surprise snow). In the 1990s, coast hugging miller A's were more common, which are what does bury central PA, but those never happen anymore. March 1993's monster was over 2 feet there, as was a similar storm in March 1994. It was very frustrating being there as a snow weenie, for sure. And I remember having numerous close calls and good setups that ended up producing little. One of these years the pattern will shift back to producing again back there, but it's undeniable that there's been a shift away from the types of snowstorms that can hit central PA really hard.

Nice towers up this evening east of Austin-towards Bastrop. Radar indicates a small patch of 2" of rain there.

It was pretty much a bust for I-35, as I suspected it would be last night when the boundary was pushed way SE of where models had it by the MCV that rolled through yesterday afternoon. Some places SE of San Antonio did get 6"+ of rain, mainly in low populated areas.

10" this month, 1.6" today where I am. Camp Mabry's August all time record is about 9.6", so that's already beaten a few miles south of there. Models are firing the rain back up over I-35 overnight, but for now the main heavy rain axis was shunted pretty far SE by the MCV that came through the area this afternoon. That will have to start to shift back north pretty soon for the models to verify. Pretty sure the models are busting on the SE extent of the heavy rain-it's making inroads towards the Corpus Christi area now when most models had SE TX largely dry. If the rain stalls out there instead, I doubt we see much more in the Austin/San Antonio areas-the moisture will all be used up there.

It's looking like there could be some serious flooding from this area south through San Antonio and west. NWS is projecting up to 15" of rain in spots, which would cause major flooding considering all the rain we've had in the last 4-5 days. The latest models are starting to focus on the Austin area and just south/west. This might become a very dangerous event if we get training heavy rain/storms overnight.

Euro has another 4"+ of rain coming later this weekend especially I-35 and west with locally 7" in the western Hill Country. I think Camp Mabry needs 3.5" or so to make this the wettest August on record. I ended up with about 8.5" from the latest system that is finally gone. For LA, rain looks to be lighter, 1-3", but obviously any rain is unwelcome there (or here at this point-some creeks around Austin had flooding at times in the last few days).

Today's rain brought me to over 8". A couple of spots just west of town closer to Lake Travis have 12"+.

Heavy rain again nailing western Travis/Hays Counties where 8-10"+ of rain has already fallen, and creeks have already been flooding. Hearing thunder outside now, rain is slowly pivoting east again towards downtown. The last few nights have had these bouts of locally heavy rain that have dropped locally 3-5" each night.

Flash flood warnings up again for Austin and suburbs. About to go over 7" where I am, and other area totals are 8-10"+.

Flash Flood Warnings out for western Travis, Williamson and Burnet Counties. The Lake Travis area was nailed early this morning-Lakeway has an event total over 10" now.

High was 76 at Camp Mabry today. Was unbelievably refreshing, actually chilly. I think this is a record for lowest high temp for this date, about 20 degrees below normal. Event total just shy of 5" where I am.

About 4.5" total now where I am in Austin. We should be over 5" by the end of today given the steady light rain and mod/heavy patches around.

More of a general soaking around Austin today than yesterday. 2.1" of rain where I am since midnight, most areas are over 1". A couple of localized spots have over 3".

Euro had some pretty crazy rain amounts through day 10 throughout most of TX-widespread 5-8" pockets stretching from Mexico NE through the state.