jm1220

Possible if the seabreeze can be held off. You really need the west/NW wind this time of year for any warmth at the coast. Today was great here for once with temps in the mid 60s.

With the trough hanging strong east of here/the Maritimes it’s more likely than not we have a back door front at least nearby. They always seem to be more sweeping than advertised 4-5 days out as well.

What’s more likely is our climate becomes like the coastal Carolinas. You don’t hear about Charleston SC hitting 100 very often but they’re in the low to mid 90s all the time with atrocious humidity. We’re already at the point especially in August where the sea breeze doesn’t cool things down much, it just increases the humidity. We’re also at a longer term raised hurricane risk if the waters will keep warming up and the mean ridge position keeps coming north. It’ll mean a southerly flow into our area instead of the usual recurves out to sea. We’re seeing the overshooting heat waves into ME/Ontario already. It’s counterintuitive but when we’re hot with westerly winds, the waters cool down due to upwelling. Southerly onshore winds help the coastal waters warm up faster.

I wouldn’t say the storm last night was a bust. The heavy rain was always favored to be north and west of the city on the models. The first storm was somewhat of a bust. It dried up on the northern edge. You could say that NYC/LI were shafted relatively for both storms.

Guess we’ll see. Models are overwhelmingly favoring NW areas for most of the rain.

I know it’s OT but Sandy was a 946mb storm when it struck ACY and we were in the right front quadrant. It’s the worst storm that many of us will see in our lifetimes. It was a Cat 3 intensity storm but spread over a huge area so the top winds were reduced, but the surge stayed huge.

Not even. It would be a nice event but we’d be mad that the northern edge where we are is drying up and the heavy snow would be in S NJ. For liquid most of us in NYC/LI are about half an inch which would be maybe 6” or so with ratios. N of the city practically nothing. S NJ would be way better since ACY has nearly 2” from this. This storm fits the progressive winter pattern where we get a squashed fast mover.

Depends on how far the storm over the weekend can clear east of us. If it gets stuck over the Maritimes and heights stay low there, good chance there will be a backdoor front nearby. It'll encourage a high to develop NE of Maine and easterly flow. If it heads east and there's no blocking, we'll get the nice westerly flow for a day or two. Looks short lived unfortunately.

Yep, got much wetter. Good news for the drought.

Yeah, garbage. Hopefully we can get the tropics to reshuffle to stop this never ending Nina or Nina like outcome. Big part of it seems to be how the W PAC has warmed so much.

So annoying how this keeps popping up in April now. Does us diddly squat.

Going with 31.5” final snow for the season here. Overall just about average. Shame that the 1/29 storm couldn’t have been just a little better developed and spread heavier snow back into the city.

Glad this is after it would be a snow event. Next storm tomorrow night is trending to how others did this winter into a shredded suppressed mess. Hopefully it can be salvageable for places SW of here now in a drought.

Not to drag it too off topic but the good news somewhat is that the Colorado River source region in CO did well precip-wise which will head downstream towards AZ. Long term though the West is in a world of hurt without major changes. This perma-Nina needs to end. CA did very well in December but it wasn't enough to really dent the drought since it dried right back up in Jan.

Hopefully we can get the ridging to the east of us somewhat. That EPS look screams back door fronts when it does get mild.

If there’s a rumble of thunder that makes it east of NYC consider that a big win this time of year.

What’s probably helping are the increasing water temps up here in the summer that are slow to cool down. We also had the tornado outbreak in the fall across Long Island. Warmer waters equal more instability.

Not sure what the reason is for the constant blocking patterns late in March and into spring the last several seasons but hopefully we can get it to end and have the blocking a month earlier when it can be useful for snow. Amazing how constant these patterns are every year along with the seeming perma-Nina.

Hysterical. I know exactly where that is too on campus, went to school there 2005-09. It’s downright nasty there this afternoon with the snow squalls, 30mph gusts and temps not budging out of the low 20s.

High of 32 here so far, looks like that’ll be it since we’re decreasing again. Hopefully some squalls today.

Got down to 22 this morning.

Round Rock tornado was EF2, 135mph top winds so borderline EF3. That was the one on national news that flipped the truck over. Looks like in total there was 1 EF1 (in Jarrell) and 3 EF2s. Impressive for that area. Incredibly no one was killed, miraculous really knowing how densely populated Round Rock is just north of Austin and that it was near rush hour.

They've mostly had a lousy to awful snow season. Syracuse has about half its yearly average. Buffalo is about average, Rochester is below average. Not that unusual for them to still be getting snow in late March.

Flash of lightning and rumble of thunder. Heavy rain currently.

It’s like clockwork the last few springs.