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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Yes-snow should consolidate and get heavier overnight as the moist easterly flow and strong lift take over.
  2. jm1220
    This will fill in and intensify as it reaches us. The storm is generating a little late for the DC area and models have the most precip to come from Philly on north/east.
  3. jm1220
    Thanks! I just downloaded it.
  4. jm1220
    Radarscope is good too, you download that on your phone. Looks like the beginnings of the heavy snow are coming together in S NJ.
  5. jm1220
    Borderline moderate now, ground is covered.
  6. jm1220
    This is a better site. The new NWS radar is unusable for me. COD: Satellite and Radar
  7. jm1220
    NAM 3km 10-1 snow map
  8. jm1220
    This is the 10-1 map. Kuchera map has up to 30" in N NJ.
  9. jm1220
    NAM is gorgeous. Looks maybe a little colder/south to me. Insane snow rates for the morning through mid afternoon for the I-78/I-80 corridor and then spreading north.
  10. jm1220
    Light snow now, temp 23.
  11. jm1220
    It'll get further than that but the precip will largely be gone by then. Thus we still get high totals.
  12. jm1220
    Surprised Upton went that high honestly. I thought I was being bullish calling for 18" in Central Park and they outdid me.
  13. jm1220
    First flurries in Huntington.
  14. jm1220
    We probably mix over at some point but it would be as the heavy precip is leaving/gone anyway. It could just be a long period of drizzle.
  15. jm1220
    Yup, we should do very well. Not the jackpot but best event since possibly 3/21/18. I'd say 80-90% chance we at least get into double digits.
  16. jm1220
    That said it's the most amped of the models with it and other models like the NAM have the mid level features a bit to the east. However a fast dry slot is always a threat when the 700 low goes west of you.
  17. jm1220
    It's new (v16) so hard to say how it'll do this close in but the 700 low north of Philly isn't what you want to see near NYC. We want that just off the NJ coast. It's been backing off the huge totals and QPF in this area the last few runs likely because of that- brings the dry slot in faster and also risks more warm air for coastal spots.
  18. jm1220
    This GFS run was a good bit more amped/west than the last one especially with the mid level lows. This run has the 700 low over Bucks County PA which is west enough that verbatim the dry slot can make it east of the city pretty quickly. Of course it's great west of the city but here it's not ideal and would probably mean east of the city stays under a foot.
  19. jm1220
    All you really need to see. This would be insane.
  20. jm1220
    That's not happening and I would ignore it.
  21. jm1220
  22. jm1220
    Revised thoughts: Central Park: 18" JFK: 16" Newark: 20" Middletown, NY: 20" Morristown/Sussex, NJ: 22" Danbury: 20" Bridgeport: 18" White Plains: 21" Asbury Park: 12" Freehold: 18" Montauk: 8" Riverhead: 12" Long Beach: 14" Islip: 16" Me/PSV88/NorthshoreWX: 17" Best chance for 24"+ between I-80 and I-78 in NJ. Maybe north of I-80 also in the good ratios. Mixing does eventually happen for most near the coast but 95% of the precip will have fallen by then other than the twin forks where it really might cut into totals.
  23. jm1220
    Where you see the blues would be where the best lifting is so you'd want to be just NW of it I'd think. But before this there's an insane front end batch of heavy snow anyway which means that the overall difference may be just a few inches or so between NYC and west of town, and by this point on the map the low is starting to occlude which means the snow will become more spotty/banded.
  24. jm1220
    Here's what I mean-it would be best if that 700 low was a bit further east, like offshore NJ. It's really being nitpicky at this point but this is why the heaviest amounts are over N NJ/E PA. Like I said if it happens this way I'll definitely sign on that dotted line.
  25. jm1220
    Yep it was a little better. If the 700 low can track east just a little more it would be ideal for everyone but regardless I'll take the 15" it gives me before any changeover that would likely just be drizzle anyway in the dryslot.
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