jm1220

Wow, out by Riverhead getting crushed.

DC is just a snow hole in general. I’d hate to live there and expect a snowier outcome. And there’s always that weenie 700mb fronto area that likes to set up north of where models have. Even helped us to a small extent.

Indeed, central PA did very well. State College might end up with 6”, I think they were supposed to get 2-3”.

They aren’t done there yet, the ULL will probably add 1-3” more.

Nice burst a little while ago, still light snow with some larger flakes. About 0.5” on the tabletop.

Central PA did quite well, better than expected from the 700mb fronto snow. State College has about 5”. Dusting/coating on colder surfaces, pavements starting to cave. Maybe with some heavier bursts I can get to 0.5”.

Really hoping it happens obviously. GFS is often toned down with these if anything and it’s showing crushing 3-4”/hr rates as it bombs off the Delmarva.

I’m wary of that kicker trough right on its heels, although if it really does full phase like the GFS, that kicker might save it being a quick changeover to rain hugger. It seems to get to a certain latitude then get booted east.

Maybe a brief window of light to moderate based on radar coming out of the city.

Light snow. Colder surfaces beginning to whiten.

That would be….. nice.

I have to think we get something in the end but the fast Pacific pattern might ruin it again. Once we go back to cutters and SE ridge, that obviously shuts off our chances. There always seems to be something wrong or off with every setup we get even in a colder regime and no, that can’t all just be bad luck. It seems to be the northern stream and fast Pacific just flinging crap to interfere with anything trying to dig and setup, and moving things along too fast.

We’ll see. Maybe we can get a brief coating type event today around the city/I-80/LI.

If you were to tell me that by 1/10 in a Nina winter that DC would have the most snow of the major NE metros I would crack up.

More turds in the punchbowl for us having any kind of threat? Say it ain’t so!

Totally agree. Get this useless dry cold out of here. Bare ground in winter is at least more tolerable with bearable conditions outside. Otherwise it’s just misery.

The problem is more confluence (sinking air) vs dry air.

The snowpack that season (10-11) was amazing. N of Sunrise Highway had a 2 foot pack for weeks. The 1/12/11 storm was good in Long Beach, I think there was 8-10” but parts of Suffolk had much more.

We definitely had the subtropical jet last winter. We had a record rainiest Dec-Feb. But the northern stream acted very much Nina with the fast Pacific flow continuing and we couldn't access any cold air when needed. We had one window in Feb when there was some cold air which is when we had most of our snow.

Oh I totally get it. Something has to happen for these weeks of it being cold enough for snow lol.

Such a fragile setup. Agreed that we need a few days to really understand how it all interacts. We need the big phase to have a shot at a significant storm, then next question is how/where.

2010-11 was the second best winter of my life behind 1995-96. That period between 12/25-2/1 was absolutely epic and will likely never be matched again.

In 03-04 NYC did better than Boston by an inch or two if not mistaken. That’s really the last winter I can think of where like you said, I-80 was hit pretty good by a few storms. We had the bitter cold Jan clipper with heavy snow in single digits and a nice 8-12” type event in late Jan that both missed Boston. NYC seems to do better than Boston maybe 2-3x per decade. 2015-16 NYC did better, and 2020-21 was tied.

El Niño probably has the best chance of it since you want to time the charged up STJ with cold enough air. PDII in 2003 was an El Niño storm that nailed all 4 metros. Jan 2016 was another that was very close to. You want a big STJ infusion into a deep cold air dome for a massive overrunning event, and some suppressive confluence but not overpowering like today’s. Or a fluke coastal storm like some in Feb 1996 that tracked in a way that hit all 4 metros. But generally we have the good New England patterns and good Mid Atlantic. This upcoming storm was fairly easy to call 4 days out as one that would favor DC-this is a bread and butter setup for them. Boston has their bread and butter setups like Jan 2022 or Jan-Feb 2015. We don’t have an easy to call from days out setup for snow for NYC since we’re at the transition zone between New England and Mid Atlantic. NYC I think by far is the hardest to forecast for in winter storms generally because we always have to edge our way into any major storm. I can’t think of the last one that wasn’t some kind of nail biter. 2/1/21 might be one that was easier to call as a hit for us.

March 2019 wasn’t too bad for the North Shore and northern NYC-had some marginal events that were rain on the south shore. Couldn’t make up for the disaster of the rest of that winter. I think half of the south shore’s snow that winter came in the freak Nov 2018 event. Everything else either suppressed or cutter/SWFE.