jm1220

Pretty sure they don't. On the NAM at least I noticed that once the sleet line was through it stopped adding snow. Like it or not the warm mid level thermals group seems to be winning out. The NAM's been steady enough with it that it's clear it was onto something. But it won't matter if we get upward of 2"/hr before the sleet and a couple inches of sleet on top with some freezing drizzle to cement it all up. It'll suck to shovel/move it, roads will be horrendous because sleet is a lot harder to really get rid of and it will last way longer because it'll turn into a brick.

High end moderate here, looks amazing. The ratios will lower to close to 10-1 as the warm mid level air comes in but the intensity will increase.

You'd have to check the soundings but the sleet line's coming north pretty steadily. Gets held up here and there but no major issue I can see vs guidance. We have until 2-3pm to really clean up (around the city), maybe 4pm for Suffolk County. New incoming 12z HRRR gets sleet into the city/I-80 around 3pm and east from there to most of Suffolk by 4pm but it fights back and forth for the northern part of the city and LI for a time. Hopefully those fights back and forth can buy us another inch or so. At the end of the event there should be some freezing drizzle in the dryslot before it all freezes up. This will be really bad to try moving. Might be a good idea to shovel right before or as it changes to sleet.

I cashed out from NYC and put my money into yes for 20"+ in Boston and a little on 24"+. I'm thinking under 10" too especially how they measure but it should really rip until 2-3pm when sleet will barge in. And then it's a question of how much QPF as sleet, that counts too.

Just over 1" here.

Yep, we're gonna have fun the next 6 hours.

It's going to be a fun few hours before the sleet gets here. Could be 2+/hr. Let's hope anyway. I just don't buy that south of White Plains it won't be all sleet for a while. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Figure out a way to get a day off and jump on the Acela.

Snowing here, dusting on the ground.

Where does this come from? I've seen it snow in the single digits and accumulate like sand because at too cold temps the flakes start to resemble needles that don't accumulate efficiently. Lower surface temps don't mean better ratios. Why Some Snowflakes Look Like Needles - BelowClouds.com

About a 20 minute drive from the middle of Smithtown straight down 25. I agree, what we get won't be going anywhere for a good 10 days. It'll be a tundra.

Hope you're right and I'm wrong. I think we get 10" total snow/sleet. South shore 8".

It's advancing a little further every run. At 21z now it's sleeting in Staten Island and barrier islands, from the 0z run at the same time the sleet was around Perth Amboy. It still dumps a lot beforehand but it's noticeable by 10 miles or so.

What could make this a really great storm in Boston vs very good but not one of the greats is whatever happens on Monday with the coastal low. They'll also get assist from the coastal front. Pretty confident Boston gets at least 15" and good shot at 18. If the Monday snow happens they have a shot at over 20.

The resolution on the GFS sucks so it shows these weird blotches on the snowmaps. But I think from here down to DC are basically in the same boat. NYC probably does a couple to few inches better than DC because of closeness to the high.

I just looked at the 0z RGEM on Pivotal and not much change to me. Sleet is here by 21z and seemed to advance a little faster. Also it has something like 1.6" liquid now-whatever falls will be heavy with a lot of water content. This will be lasting a long time on the ground.

I'll probably get 2" more than the south shore because snow will hang on a little longer here but we see the colder models gradually adjusting warmer and the NAM/GFS getting slightly colder but no big cave. Pretty clear that we'll be sleeting by 21z. White Plains/coastal CT probably get a little sleet but not enough to really harm accumulations. So that could get them another 3-5" total over me. I do think 6" is a lock for everyone in this subforum save coastal NJ where we'll have to see when it changes to rain. Again, since sleet and snow are the same water content as all snow, it will just make it harder to move/shovel here and maybe we get some freezing drizzle to fuse it all together.

NYC/I-80/LI aren't getting 12" from this as much as I want it to happen. Just not the type of storm where it happens. Hopefully White Plains/coastal CT still can.

GFS looked a little better I thought. Still wonky/weird snow map due to bad resolution. Anyway from here I wouldn't use it anymore.

Reasonable, I predicted 9” for Central Park last night. 10” for the north shore, 7-8” for the south shore.

Yeah-if mixing is getting close to I-80 in PA here, it would definitely get to the city and LI. They will catch up to the other guidance overnight.

The snow depth might be counting the sleet that’s on the ground in addition to the snow. With the amount of liquid total vs snow amount it shows there could be 2-3” additional as sleet.

The 500/700mb setup matters most in terms of the precip we get not the surface (unless plain rain). This isn’t your normal heavy snow setup for NYC. It’s a typical Nina SWFE that has a better antecedent overrunning dome than normal putting more of us in the game for an initial thump.

The 12/26 clipper it overdid the mid level warming.

They could still be right. We’ll see what they say at 0z then I’d say it’s time to look at radar trends and start to buy more into the short range models.