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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Could be another nice hit for those who got hit from the last one. Maybe not DC so much but east of there in DE.
  2. jm1220
    If this more amped trend is right, I can see there being a chance at 2-3”. Ratios should be pretty favorable, no warm layers to mess up the snow growth.
  3. jm1220
    Even whatever jump it made isn’t near enough and it’s the NAM.
  4. jm1220
    I guess there’s still a chance at 1-2” from the northern stream wave as it comes through, it’s pretty vigorous. But whatever coastal system should still be way SE.
  5. jm1220
    And then-verbatim, back to windy cold and dry. Maybe all this noise in the northern stream can actually nudge something like this east, but last month the precip arrived in spades when the cold went away. I agree, this weather outside is brutal. Had to pick my garbage pails up for the 3rd time today in the freezing wind and frozen brown ground. I really don't get those who actually enjoy this.
  6. jm1220
    In perfect sync with this winter so far. Numerous cold/dry Dec days but plenty of precip when it became too warm (granted-snow before Christmas), the NYE thunderstorms, back to cold/dry with suppressed garbage. Wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see it go right back to cutters or cold rain SWFEs when it relaxes.
  7. jm1220
    Storms don’t trend NW because “that just happens”. If we keep this suppressive blocking pattern and fast Pacific, this same outcome will keep happening.
  8. jm1220
    Ain’t that wonderful for them.
  9. jm1220
    Forget bed, it’s been dragged out behind the barn, shot and buried 6 feet under.
  10. jm1220
    In marginal events here it does help. It’s usually 2-3 degrees colder up here which can make a big difference. I remember Mar 2019 being half decent where I live now with 3-5” wet snow and nothing on the south shore. 2/28/23 is another example-5” at my house now and white rain in Long Beach.
  11. jm1220
    If it’s another half inch event I could honestly care less. It’ll be mostly gone in 12 hours.
  12. jm1220
    Maybe 1979-80 but that was an El Niño.
  13. jm1220
    Whatever can go wrong will kind of winter. Unless of course you live in DC south, then they keep cashing in.
  14. jm1220
    In the last few years that’s been when we’ve been able to get snow-early Feb timeframe like in 2024, 2021.
  15. jm1220
    Just about everyone to our south cashing in though, in a Nina. Nature has a weird cruel dry sense of humor.
  16. jm1220
    Yup, and Philly
  17. jm1220
    Anyone wondering about the ICON-it's congrats on a line from just N of Dallas to Norfolk VA. Pretty much zippo north of Richmond. Everyone on that line would be ahead to well ahead of Central Park in season snow by Sat night.
  18. jm1220
    The waters off Japan cooling down significantly. That’s a bit simplistic but that issue arose in 2018 and hasn’t really relented since, and ever since that marine heatwave started, the Pacific jet has been supercharged. Bluewave has posted many times about it. As for this threat, there’s still some hope for a light 1-3” event but hope for a heavier event if no major change tonight gets the plug pulled. The N and S streams won’t cooperate and the pattern is too fast with a kicker right behind it to allow any real amplification before it’s booted out sea. The vigorous trough coming through is where our hope really lies for the snow event, not the coastal storm.
  19. jm1220
    When the wind direction is just right from the ENE it’s happened off the Sound. In some coastal storms there’s a sound enhancement effect due to the NE winds enhancing lift via frictional convergence over LI and lingering the snow. Growing up in Long Beach as a kid I thought the Reynolds Channel could help but all it helped with was changing us to rain sooner.
  20. jm1220
    Was probably intended to be humorous but inappropriate especially given how fast BS gets spread on social media these days, and then people twist into misinformation. Then the panic headlines “NWS predicts up to 40” of snow this weekend”. I knew the zonked up GFS runs with 20+ amounts would be everywhere and sure enough.
  21. jm1220
    Pretty much, the streams don't phase, the S stream gets strung out like silly putty and the whole mess gets booted out to sea by the kicker trough behind it. Like getting yanked off the stage with a cane when you choke.
  22. jm1220
    Approaching 1/15 which is halfway point of met winter, definitely trending towards the fail column. Hey, it's in good company with 18-19, 19-20, 22-23, 23-24. Couldn't care less that there are lots of windy dry cold days. The T-storm complexes on New Years Eve and cutters will always show up when the weather turns warm again.
  23. jm1220
    The storm isn't well enough developed at 500mb to throw much snow back west. The storm needs to develop more aloft on its own for that to happen. It has a closed 850 low here and nothing higher.
  24. jm1220
    I pinned Walt’s 1/6 storm thread, so I clearly cursed that one. Hopefully @Rjaycan reel this in.
  25. jm1220
    We’re tracking 1-3” at worst at this point in January. It could turn around but when the pattern’s as boring as watching grass grow-not much else to talk about. Anyone have any details on the one EPS member out of 50 that gives us more than the 1-3”?
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