jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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NAM is absolutely horrendous. It can make a 180 turnaround within 24 hrs of an event. It needs to be retired.
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I don't think it will be right since it's a big outlier, we'll have to see what the better models say later but it definitely would fit this winter's fail theme to a T.
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Would be fitting for this winter though. Suppressed garbage, dry windy cold, then on 2 days where it spikes above freezing a coastal hugger all rain rushes through, then back to even worse dry windy cold.
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Yup, that run's a disaster. It's been consistent so can't discount it.
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Awesome. Hope we can get good ratios to max those amounts. You want temps -12 to -18C in the snow growth zone for best ratios.
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Light snow-dusting on cars.
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If we have the better 500mb look aloft I’m not so worried about QPF since we should have better lift and banding. Although this will be out in a hurry so amounts will be limited that way. This won’t be a major snow event but a 3-6” type event would be great for all. Hopefully we can edge it up for some to get 7-8”. Last thing we want is more useless dry windy cold with bare ground.
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Good that other models aren’t pushing west like the RGEM.
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It’s the GFS but hopefully that’s exactly what we converge to.
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Hopefully in 24 more hours we're converging on a snowy outcome for everyone. But it's thread the needle based on the wave spacing and trough orientation. There's no confluence/blocking to the north to nudge it east. I don't see this as a slam dunk moderate event that others seem to. Maybe this fast Pacific pattern can save us for once.
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Yup, a washout from the city east. Icon not quite as bad but close.
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Few flurries here.
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HRRR has flurries to maybe a dusting here or there. Hopefully you’re right.
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Sure they do-now. I’m not locking onto anything for another 24 hours. In a whatever can go wrong will winter which it’s been up until now, best to have that mindset. I hope they’re right as much as anyone but I can see how it turns into another fail. Nothing really stopping a hugger other than the trough orientation being favorable. It could definitely amp more since there’s no blocking out ahead of it this time. But sure if we can lock onto a GFS type solution it’ll be a very nice system.
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Sure it could. If it’s too amped like the GGEM it rains for most of it NYC East. There’s no confluence/block forcing it east and the cold air around comes in behind the storm. We want the trough/orientation east of GGEM so it has to take the offshore track. That’s why I want the track 50 miles or so SE of that so we all have a nice event.
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If we can just get the RGEM outcome 50 miles SE that would be perfect for everyone. Not a huge storm but possibly 6”+ for some. It’s a matter of the S/W sharp enough to generate lift and on a good track as others pointed out. Would be nice to have a decent snow before this cold push.
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Models are showing us in the low single digits and below zero just inland on Tue AM and any snow cover would make it even colder. It’s not historic cold but impressive all the same.
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Westhampton down to 5.
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Fingers crossed, hopefully the changes aloft are happening to get us a decent event. 2-5” may as well be a HECS this year.
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Way colder than expected, down to 13 this AM.
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Looking forward to my consolation coating gone in an hour.
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There was an appreciable increase in snow around Massapequa and definitely 20” or so once you reached Rt 231. I drove from Long Beach back to my house on the N Shore and noticed the increase in Massapequa and another dropoff once you went north through Dix Hills. My house had probably 14-15” and Huntington village 10-11”. There was definitely a shaft zone around there. East on Jericho Tpke the amounts visibly went up again around Larkfield Rd area.
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New Orleans, Pensacola and Charleston with more seasonal snow than NYC. That would be just hilarious. Not even sure 79-80 could pull that off.
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And we had a very wet December at the times it was too warm for snow. It’s one of those seasons where the fast Pacific flow is ruining any chances at amplification, and we have the trough position in a bad place w/no real WAR when we need it. Hopefully that changes soon but could very well be that we deal with more of the same boredom and misery.
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If we can retain some cold and get the storm track to trend back north with some kind of SE Ridge I like our chances here a lot more. Whatever gets this suppressed to hell pattern to end…
