jm1220

If we see it all snow and we start accumulating early and not waste the beginning to slop/white rain, we should be good for 4-6” I think. Might be a situation though where the south shore struggles for a while until the cold air hammer really comes down on the N flow. The marginal degree or two setups are usually OK here but it hinges on that degree or two.

Well-hopefully that’s wrong. Does it have a good record?

I think if we can get the low to head ENE from near Cape May and stay 20 miles or so SE of Montauk most of us will be fine. It’s the solutions that we’re planting the low near LBI or Fire Island that are a problem. Hopefully we’re getting a consensus close to the GFS.

Never. It's nice but I'll be giving it zero weight until other models jump on. We've seen it do total flips less than 24 hours before an event.

We're finally getting to the compromise. I think it's weighted toward the RGEM but that won't take much of a bump SE for most to be happy.

It trended better from 6z. I'm accepting at this phase that the first few hours here will be a nailbiter.

The RGEM budging SE a little to me is a good sign. But if the GFS is wrong by a degree or two I waste maybe half the initial precip to rain or nonaccumulating slop.

I think the question's really how long it takes to turn the flow northerly, cold air crashes in quickly after that. GFS has the low near/just E of Cape May which at that time could be dicey east of the city then tracks it ENE for the most part which would turn the winds N. IMBY the profile is very marginal at the beginning, maybe 34F snow until the wind backs around and it crashes into the 20s. It'll be pasty wet snow for a few hours anyway. I've found IMBY that marginal situations are usually okay since I have a couple hundred foot elevation but this time who knows. West of the city doesn't have these questions and is probably good for at least a high end advisory event.

I'll likely be right on the knife's edge here. When the RGEM refused to budge run after run it was a sign to me it wasn't totally wrong. I was hoping the Euro would be more right though, looks like that won't be the case. GFS still looks OK here but it's close at the start until the low kicks NE and we get the N flow. I still think as long as the low tracks SE of Montauk we should be okay outside the twin forks maybe. RGEM did tick SE a little but not by enough to matter here-it's still mainly a washout.

Euro looks pretty much the exact same to me. Still hundreds of miles east of the RGEM and lightest with the precip. Did beef up inland areas a little but across the board area wide it would be a maybe 2-4" type event. Hopefully we see a GFS/UKMET type outcome.

To me UKMET looked a little better-more QPF and not amped. Best down here/along the coast but inland still gets a decent event.

GFS is the best case scenario for 95% of us. Still amped enough for plenty of snow inland and good ratios, and cold enough for the city/coast. The 5% it’s not ideal for is well east in Suffolk but it should cool off enough pretty quick and flip over. Snow would probably start pasty in the city/east and become powder by the end.

18z GFS looked a little hairy east of the William Floyd initially until winds turn N and really drives the cold in, and snow would probably be wet from the city east initially but I’d gladly take. It’s the best case scenario for around the city, still plenty strong/amped. And I’d think eastern Suffolk would still get a few hours of decent snow at the end. But here comes 0z anyway.

I had my usual this winter consolation dusting that was gone within an hour of sunrise this morning.

Yup still a disaster for anyone near/east of the city. Hoping it can eventually slip 75 miles or so SE. I wanted to see at least a small shift.

RGEM looks maybe slightly better but definitely still favors inland. Low still tracks over I-95 which is all rain east of there. I don’t expect it to make big moves in one run, don’t think I’ve ever seen that. Icon went maybe 30-50 miles SE.

Cooling down fast again tonight, down to 25. Wonder if we see another sneaky night in the teens in some places.

NAM (I know) looks like a 3-6” type event for everyone. Sign the dotted line.

HRRR is always too amped at the end of its range.

They've been issued for the NW suburbs where they're most confident of warning level amounts for now.

Depends on where the cyclogenesis happens. If it happens over NJ like the RGEM certainly. If it’s offshore like the other models, the N flow will pull the cold air in. It’s an arctic airmass being tapped.

There’s no way there can be a GFS like outcome shifted 25-50mi southeast or even the numerous Euro outcomes that would be a solid hit everywhere? I’m as aware as anyone that I could be dealing with a mainly rain event here and the RGEM barely budged but that’s ridiculous.

If we could tick the GFS 25 miles SE everyone would win. RGEM-no comment.

I know, I used to live in Austin where I was urged to stay off any road after there was a tiny amount of sleet on the ground. Feb 2021 was an absolute disaster there and 6” in Houston would be just the same.

Not sure where you are, NW NJ? But that looks like one of the best places to be for this event.