jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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1" on the dot so far. Back to pixie dust/dippin dots in this lighter stuff. Hopefully this last band can deliver a few more tenths.
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The ocean won't be denied. Thankfully for me this isn't a strong onshore flow event.
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I did my time living in Long Beach growing up and having numerous situations like this. But still, wild how it's up to 10 degrees warmer just a short drive down Rt 110. Farmingdale is 35 and rain.
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Glad it's working out, was a very marginal situation. A few miles south of me it's all rain unfortunately.
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Snow picking up here. Coastal warm front not moving N much, looks to be around Hempstead Tpke still.
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On 12/15/03 there was probably 6” that by the end was all washed away. It can definitely happen but once over 4-5” it’s tough unless temps really spike up to the 40s.
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If we have decent enough precip it might be hard to really get the warm air up here. This isn’t a strong onshore flow situation and it’s a fairly weak system.
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The coastal/warm front is moving N slowly, looks to be around Hempstead Tpke. South of there is probably rain or non accumulating snow since temp is 35-36. N of there is 30 or below. Like a summer time seabreeze.
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28, light dippin’ dots. Coating on all surfaces including street.
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If we get the rare 5-6” to rain, that’s usually fine with me because some is usually left by the end and it freezes solid behind the storm. Our big Dec 2020 and 2/1/21 storms had some rain or mix in them. But if it’s 1-3” to rain that washes it all away, to me that’s just pointless.
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Still 27-28 in this area, warm air coming into the south shore, it’s 35 on the barrier islands.
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HRRR still very dry but other models more wet, 0.2-0.25" or so. If we can catch a break maybe temps will stay cold enough and it can stay snow for many. It's a weak system and the onshore flow isn't that strong but hard to argue against just about every model having zilch south of the CT coast or Hudson Valley. The RGEM and latest NAM 3K has some chance in northern parts of the city and N Shore.
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Models seem to be shifting QPF to the north and east at the last minute. Might end up being congrats eastern half of CT to Boston. Latest HRRR has under 0.1" liquid for most of Fairfield County CT and LI west of the twin forks where it's too warm for snow.
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We're seeing the usual trend north on the Wed event since it's a SWFE and no resistance to the north. Super Bowl weekend storm looks maybe slightly better but again a SWFE, no blocking to the north to force a southern track so it once again favors New England. Some cold air to start on the weekend event but without an overrunning high N of us it gets quickly scoured out, and there might not be much precip out ahead of the storm in the cold preceding air. The high is centered east of us which drives in southerly winds. I'm not big on either of these two upcoming events as you can tell, at least I-84 south. Maybe if this blocking mid-month really happens and we get some amplification to prevent everything getting crushed south like in Jan something can work. Until then zzzzzzz and carry the umbrella.
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12z GFS would just be a gut punch. But thing is it's totally feasible here. And it's that kind of winter.
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HRRR looks a little better for the north shore with maybe 1", but it's the only model that really has any accumulation. It'll be close here but the heavier QPF NE of us and onshore flow are working against us. The south shore looks cooked. Congrats CT and Hudson Valley.
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If we can keep some kind of SE ridge and develop the block we may be in business. If we lose one we risk either suppression or the gradient being north of us. We really need both for this to work. As others point out, around Super Bowl timeframe is our prime period for bigger snowstorms.
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We didn’t change over to snow until the flow became northerly that day and the CCB fully developed and pivoted the snow around to the west. Initially we were stuck with crap maritime airmass and it had to be pushed out. Models have it in the mid to upper 30s tomorrow night and winds are onshore. It’s also a much weaker storm than the Feb 2010 snowicane lol. We’ll see what happens.
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If it’s more than the consolation coating still I’ll be thrilled. The meat of it looks to be north of us and temps will still be marginal. High end is maybe an inch and it’ll be gone in a few hours on Monday. It’s something though I guess.
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Flow is onshore which means the south shore torches, and maybe we stay marginal enough for snow to stick.
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Hopefully we get some rain this month to refill the reservoirs-there will be drought restrictions for sure if we don't recharge before summer. I'm sure there will be some other 2-3" type snow events this winter to get me over 10", hopefully to 15" but that's still well below average here, less than 50% of average. If we do get a block again but no SE ridge it just means more suppression. We need some way to amplify the pattern to get storms to come north but resistance via confluence or weaker block so it doesn't turn into a strong primary to Erie that cooks us before we have a chance at redevelopment offshore. The AO should be positive which as Don points out is unfavorable for significant snow in NYC. We have the same fast Pacific flow pattern which will try to kneecap the amplification needed or favor SWFEs if the SE ridge gets too dominant. There's a small window for something to work out here but we should be realistic that it's small, and that might be a front ender to rain. I can't think of many gradient/SWFE patterns that work here (at least S of I-84)-we get one-offs sometimes like 2/22/08, but the last time that really worked here was an epic example like 93-94. I mean, there is the cold air to the north which could favor the front ender to rain if we have a good overrunning high for the SWFE to come into, but without some mechanism to prevent it from being scoured out or force redevelopments offshore in time, NYC is a very uphill climb.
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Another consolation coating? It’ll be nice but I’m done caring about those when I’m sitting at 8” on 2/1. The upcoming pattern looks gradient/SWFE which to me means New England/I-90 is favored. If we have some mechanism to force them south like confluence or blocking we have a shot at a front end snow event at least but we all know these try to nudge north at the end.
