jm1220

But at least the Delmarva and Gulf Coast cashed in!

Another sad pathetic winter. Thanks for all the work putting the maps together.

I ended up with a finance degree, thankfully I got through enough of the meteo math early enough to get that out of the way lol.

There really is a “butterfly flapping its wings” element to the weather, and it’s impossible for now for any machine to predict every atmospheric permutation everywhere in the world that affects every other permutation somewhere because in the large scale, the atmosphere is a fluid. I changed my major in college because the math/calculus killed me. There’ll definitely have to be some human element to understanding the patterns, outputs and end results for quite some time IMO. We saw this winter the Euro AI had some limited utility but has many years to go. Models make pretty good approximations but aren’t close to the point they can just stand by themselves. I should have 60” of snow going on model outputs, but the Pacific Jet blasted pattern made it clear over and over that wouldn’t happen, and the model biases in the end corrected themselves.

Yep, looking warmer since we should have westerly flow for now. Have to always be aware of the turn on a dime to gunk with easterly wind this time of year though.

The wet pattern to our west might mean a more humid but less hot summer if we get a westerly flow pattern (where downslope heats it up but humidity would help cap how hot the temps actually get). And a more southerly flow pattern which has been more common in recent years would mean more onshore flow. Of course temps/dewpoint more like 93/75 vs 100/68 would make the heat index and what people experience worse not better.

This would be drizzly crap in January too. Occluded low flinging easterly nastiness off the ocean. Inland would do better with higher ratios.

It’ll be May soon enough which is a March out of this crap.

Maybe 0.5” of drizzly garbage here so far. Congrats to the @IrishRob17s padding their totals.

On the patio at Nordstrom Tower/tippy top of the WTC/Empire State antennas there might be some catpaws mixed in with the heavier echos but generally still over 2k feet for any real snow mixed in. And of course heavier rain is focusing west of here-just raw nasty drizzle for the most part IMBY.

Can also see how over CT there's snow lower to the ground. Might be a good event for higher CT/MA/Catskills elevations.

The heavier echos lower it somewhat but I doubt anyone in this forum outside the Orange County @IrishRob17, maybe @wdrag wake up to snow on the ground. If there's a heavy band that sets overhead for someone maybe catpaws hit the ground for most of us. Just another raw, nasty day. Build the water table up for the inevitable dry period over the summer.

Also GFS says maybe we salvage Tuesday but Monday looks like it's more backdoor onshore flow gunk. April can't get over with soon enough.

Looks like about 2500 ft over NYC/LI, 1500 ft over CT from the beam height.

Where I am maybe there’ll be a snow/rain mix for a while if we can get the column to cool down, maybe very off chance at a slushy coating if it completely changes over. Regardless I want this horrid stretch to end and for some sustained warmth.

Well the hi-res RGEM printed out 13" for me at 12z so there's that.

It’s occluding with a wide fetch off the ocean, with rotting cold air aloft. Would probably have been snow to rain.

Thunder sleet in April? That would just be laughing in our pathetic faces.

I’d think wherever the heat budget is the greatest, that’s what would drive the forcing and the pattern so if the marine heat waves shift around, the overall pattern likely would too. I agree that “cool down” is subjective in this warming climate.

When the gunk can finally clear away it can be very nice up here, way nicer than Long Beach for sure. The best weather period IMO is Sept through mid Oct generally. And the crowds on the beaches go away. When I lived in PA it was nice not having to worry about BDCFs coming through or seabreezes.

OT but I also find those buildings to be hideous. No character or attractiveness to them whatsoever other than to be the tallest billionaire stick on 57th St, which then another developer builds a taller billionaire stick next door as a selling point. The skyline looks atrocious with those things.

Yep, I don’t expect any real change to our lousy winters here until the W PAC meaningfully changes-cools down. It’s clear it keeps fueling these ridiculous Pacific Jet patterns that ruin any snow setup we have one way or another. It’s really something how no matter what the setup is, there’s some turd in the punchbowl that ruins it. It originates from too much chaos and progressiveness in the pattern-too many S/Ws so nothing can amplify, or the ridge/trough in the wrong place so we get cutters, or the continent flooded in maritime air.

I’ve always thought they should measure at LGA since it’s a central site within the city roughly, and they seem to a better job than whatever crew at Central Park over years. There are numerous times it’s clear the Park undermeasured again but the media goes with “NYC got….” from there. LaGuardia in recent years has been more realistic.

Muhahahahahahaaa

Maybe we can arrange for the zookeeper to have it during snow events for him to help NYC break 30” average finally.